99% chance of Ohio bowl eligible and I tend to agree. Chances in Detroit I'm feeling pretty good about. Toledo, NIU, WMU I feel with confidence we are on their level after defeating Toledo and NIU last time we played them on the road and competing with a Cotton Bowl bound WMU in Detroit last year. Then last week a solid MAC win on the road at EMU. Go back a few years and Ohio was propping itself up on a steady diet of MAC East but at this point the cats appear to be legit.

What's the formula here? Not questioning it, really, as I look at the list it seems right but yet some 5-1 teams have "100%" chances and isn't that mathematically impossible? Also, some of the teams at over 75% can't really be that close.

Well, 5-7 can get you a bowl, so using that logic all tteams with 5 wins should be 100%. The fallacy is that teams with 4 wins last week were given 100%. That's not possible. You can't say 100% that any team won't lose all of their remaining games. It's obviously more likely that I'll win the lottery and then be struck by lightning, but still not 100% absolutely positive that OSU won't lose all of their remaining games.

To clarify this is just using a predictive algorithm to determine the odds of winning 6 games (not counting 2 1AA wins). If there were a school on bowl probation it would show a 0. This now sums to 80. Some 6-6 G5 teams will probably stay home. 5-7 probably isn't going to work for anyone. There is a long way to go though.

1 Central FL 100.00%
2 S Florida 100.00%
3 NC State 100.00%
4 Clemson 100.00%
5 TX Christian 100.00%
6 Oklahoma St 100.00%
7 Oklahoma 100.00%
8 Ohio State 100.00%
9 Penn State 100.00%
10 Wisconsin 100.00%
11 Colorado St 100.00%
12 San Diego St 100.00%
13 Stanford 100.00%
14 Washington 100.00%
15 Wash State 100.00%
16 USC 100.00%
17 Georgia 100.00%
18 Alabama 100.00%
19 Miami (FL) 99.90%
20 Notre Dame 99.90%
21 S Carolina 99.90%
22 Auburn 99.90%
23 App State 99.90%
24 Memphis 99.80%
25 VA Tech 99.80%
26 Toledo 99.80%
27 Michigan 99.70%
28 Troy 99.70%
29 Marshall 99.50%
30 W Michigan 99.50%
31 Ohio 99.00%
32 Miss State 98.90%
33 Boise State 98.80%
34 Texas A&M 98.50%
35 Navy 98.40%
36 Michigan St 98.40%
37 Fresno St 98.00%
38 LSU 97.90%
39 S Mississippi 97.70%
40 North Texas 97.60%
41 Army 97.50%
42 N Illinois 97.40%
43 Houston 96.40%
44 Kentucky 96.00%
45 TX-San Ant 95.60%
46 Arkansas St 93.50%
47 Virginia 93.30%
48 Utah 92.10%
49 Fla Atlantic 91.80%
50 W Kentucky 90.90%
51 S Methodist 90.60%
52 Arizona 90.60%
53 Wake Forest 89.60%
54 Iowa 89.20%
55 UAB 89.20%
56 Oregon 86.80%
57 LA Tech 86.60%
58 Louisville 85.90%
59 Texas Tech 85.70%
60 W Virginia 84.50%
61 Purdue 83.70%
62 Northwestern 83.50%
63 Texas 81.80%
64 Florida St 80.90%
65 Duke 80.30%
66 Middle Tenn 80.20%
67 Wyoming 78.00%
68 N Mex State 73.10%
69 Iowa State 73.00%
70 California 72.50%
71 Indiana 68.20%
72 Arizona St 67.40%
73 Buffalo 65.90%
74 Georgia State 65.40%
75 Akron 61.90%
76 Tulane 60.50%
77 Kansas St 59.70%
78 Tennessee 54.60%
79 Minnesota 53.80%
80 GA Tech 52.80%
81 Florida 51.90%
82 Syracuse 51.80%
83 Colorado 51.70%
84 E Michigan 50.80%
85 Vanderbilt 47.50%
86 Florida Intl 47.00%
87 Utah State 46.80%
88 UCLA 42.90%
89 Air Force 39.60%
90 S Alabama 36.90%
91 New Mexico 35.60%
92 UNLV 35.20%
93 Arkansas 33.30%
94 Boston Col 26.50%
95 Maryland 23.10%
96 Central Mich 22.80%
97 LA Lafayette 22.50%
98 BYU 22.40%
99 Cincinnati 19.60%
100 Idaho 17.30%
101 LA Monroe 14.60%
102 Tulsa 14.50%
103 Miami (OH) 13.70%
104 Old Dominion 12.90%
105 Nebraska 10.70%
106 Temple 8.10%
107 Ball State 8.00%
108 Missouri 7.40%
109 Hawaii 6.20%
110 Pittsburgh 3.70%
111 Rutgers 1.50%
112 GA Southern 1.40%
113 Kent State 1.30%
114 Connecticut 1.10%
115 Rice 0.40%
116 N Carolina 0.20%
117 Nevada 0.20%
118 Illinois 0.10%
119 Bowling Grn 0.10%
120 E Carolina 0.00%
121 Baylor 0.00%
122 Kansas 0.00%
123 Charlotte 0.00%
124 TX El Paso 0.00%
125 U Mass 0.00%
126 San Jose St 0.00%
127 Oregon St 0.00%
128 Mississippi 0.00%
129 Coastal Car 0.00%
130 Texas State 0.00%