Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: October 7th, 2017 2:00 PM

Opponent: Central Michigan  (2-3, 0-1 MAC)

Site: Peden Stadium

TV: None

Radio: Ohio Radio

Webcast: ESPN3.com

Ohio Game Notes

CMU Game Notes

CMU statistics, roster and media guide.

CMU Fan Site: Chippewas Insider  

Suggest you phone ticket office tomorrow morning.

The spread is up to Ohio -12 already. With the way this defense gives up points late, that line screams backdoor cover.

Just win this game! By 1 or 100. Winnable game if the Cats show up and do what they are capable of!

Whether it was because they were in a golden era of sorts with Dan Lefevour or have just found a way to win some wacky games, Central has really Ohio's number both under Frank but also historically overall.

If this is indeed true, we are 5-24-2 all time against the Chips:

http://www.winsipedia.com/ohio/vs/central-michigan

Would love to see a solid win on Saturday. Miami was able to score a pretty convincing win in Mt. Pleasant a few weeks ago. Maybe get a small glimpse in how we are progressing along in comparison with our biggest challenge in the East. A win could really help in a quest back to Motown

The secondary really needs to step up this week. CMU is 32nd in 1A in passing (for comparison, UMass is 19th and EMU is 30th and they both gave us fits). They protect the QB well; just seven sacks in five games. We should be able to stop their ground game (141 yds/game), and run against them (they're giving up 191/game). Our QBs shouldn't have to worry about pass protection; CMU's averaging just one sack a game. Pass defense will be the key for us.

We've lost two straight to them at home and haven't beaten them in Athens since 2000. But I still think this is our best chance to beat these guys in several years. Sagarin has Ohio about even with Syracuse and BC, and better than Fiami. All three handled CMU pretty easily. Still, I think the betting lines are off because these guys seem to have our number. If we win, it'll be by a TD or less.

Looking at the MAC Stats, not a lot jumps out at me.
http://static.getsomemaction.com/custompages/stats/2017FB...

One thing that does is that CMU has nearly as many offensive yards as Ohio, but only half the points, which is odd. Another is that Ohio leads the league in rushing, and is second in rushing defense.

Ohio also leads the league in pass defense...oh wait, big numbers are bad, right? Seriously, Ohio has had a good rush defense, and been well ahead in most games, so other teams have been throwing the ball a lot, every game. CMU has been pretty one-dimensional, getting most of their yards through the air. I expect that to continue this game.

I think Ohio is going to win this one 45-28, and CMU will put up 250-300 yards through the air, but have a lot of drives stall out.

Ohio has let up:

• 49 plays of 10+ yards thru the air (3rd worst in MAC)
• 21 plays of 20+ yards thru the air (worst in MAC)
• 7 plays of 30+ yards thru the air (bottom half of MAC)

They haven't been torched for more than 40+ ... but I'm guessing that's because most teams already have dinged them for chunk yards to get them closer than 40 yards

202 pass attempts against ... most in MAC ... and I'm guessing it's more because teams are attacking Ohio's weakness than they are "behind in the game" (EMU wasn't behind ... Purdue wasn't behind ... UMass was successful passing even before they were behind 19 pts )

114 completed passes by opponents is most in MAC (many, many more than most teams)

1407 is most yards allowed

12 TDs is most allowed

3 INT is 2nd to last in MAC

281.4 is most yards allowed in MAC

You can break that down into 1st half numbers ...

Ohio 3rd most passing yards allowing in 1st Half
• 6 TDs (2nd worst)
• 8 25+yd passes (2nd worst)
• 98 attempts (most in MAC)

If you break down into 2nd half only .... Ohio is near the bottom of the league in all pass defense categories.

I know ... they are 4-1 ... and yes, some of those numbers are inflated because of UMass and KU blowouts ... but the bottom line is, this pass defense isn't very good.

It's been enough to get thru the creampuff schedule they've played at 4-1 ...

And sadly, could be good enough to get thru most ofcreampuff MAC East ....

But is it good enough to compete with good teams (I think Purdue has proven otherwise)

PS

Sagarin ratings
Kansas 130
UMass 150
Hampton 227
EMU 107

If Ohio can't defend pass against some of the worst FBS teams...sometimes you just have to accept the obvious

Certainly it's true that Ohio's strong run defense also encourages teams to attack Ohio's weak passing defense. Some aspects of this team have been better than I expected, others have been worse. The pass defense is in the latter category. I expected improvement from last year, but at this point, it's worse.

Ohio's pass defense numbers may improve from here. The pass efficiency of Ohio's remaining foes, and the percentage of their yards that have come from passing, of Ohio's remaining foes:
CMU - 115.4 67%
BGSU - 106.8 70%
Kent - 118.2 40%
Miami - 131.8 64%
Toledo - 162.9 65%
Akron - 113.5 61%
Buffalo - 137.9 52%

CMU, BGSU, and Akron all pass a lot, but haven't been that efficient at it thus far. Kent and Buffalo are more running teams, and may be uncomfortable passing 70% of the time. Those teams may make Ohio's numbers look somewhat better by the end of the year.

The teams that are the most worrying are Miami and Toledo, as both pass a lot, and are good at it.

Ohio definitely needs to beat Miami to have the best chance of getting to the championship game, but Buffalo also appears to be a dark horse threat. If Ohio does get to the MACC, I'd rather play NIU or WMU.

I assumed there was a level of sarcasm in there when referring to mighty Tennessee.

But yes ... I agree handpicking data to fulfill some bias is dangerous.

But my stats weren't to show a bias that our pass defense is pretty lousy.

It's pretty much fact.

UMass and Kansas are two of the worst football teams in the country ...

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

And those two teams threw for 746 yards and 7 TDs (2 INT) ...

I don't care what the score was in those games ... Ohio wasn't rolling out a 5th string defense against them. Those two teams moved the ball pretty efficiently thru the air against them.

It's a pretty glaring weakness ... and one that has been a problem for a while for Ohio.

EMU threw for 300+

Purdue threw for 295 ... and it would've been more but they mercifully started to run the ball in the 2H to eat clock.

It's not like Purdue, Kansas, UMass and EMU are elite offenses. In fact, all three of them had their best passing games of the season (vs. FBS) opponents vs. Ohio.

They are ranked 18, 19 and 30th respectively in the country in passing ... propped up partially by the inflated numbers they put up vs. Ohio. And for context, Ohio is #85 in passing.

And Ohio's remaining scheduled is littered with below average ... or bad football teams.

Akron #107
CMU #113
Kent #117
BG #128

Only Buffalo (#85), Miami (#96) and Toledo (#50) are Top 100. (Ohio is #74, EMU is #93 and Purdue is #57)

SIDENOTE: Again, Ohio has 5 of the worst 20 teams in the country on their schedule.

My point is that if KU, UMass and EMU are torching Ohio's pass defense ... what will Miami and Toledo do to it?

Ohio has to figure out a way to defend the pass more efficiently than they are now.

That's not a bias ... that's just a fact.

Just took a quick look at Kansas stats vs Ohio and then WVU the following weekend. I was surprised at what I found:

Jayhawers against OHIO:

319 yards passing
427 total yards

Jayhawkers against WVU:

194 yards passing
561 total yards

mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170916_KANSAS@OHIO /

mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170923_WVU@KANSAS /

Sorry, bshot44, I copied down the wrong column for Kansas versus Ohio. I've now corrected it. Still, it's interesting that Kansas had more total yards against WVU than Ohio.

The final scores were not too dissimilar either, though WVU didn't allow Kansas a gift TD at the end either:

Ohio 42 Kansas 30
WVU 56 Kansas 34

WVU certainly put up some huge overall numbers that we couldn't match. Kansas was down 35-13 at half, WVU's total boosted by an easy pick 6 right before the half. There was actually quite a stretch of time where Kansas controlled the game, which was the part I watched/followed. Kansas spent a decent portion of the second half within a score of WVU. but WVU put up late scores on Kansas turnovers to arrive at the final spread. The game wasn't over until Kansas, within a score around the five minute mark, hit a huge play to get into WVU territory, but fumbled at the end of it.

Edit: Kansas was down 2 scores when they fumbled, but that did pretty much put a lid on it.