Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Bowl Picture -- 11/5
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Pataskala
11/5/2017 11:48 AM
There are now 50 teams in and 21 more just a win away. That’s 71 of the 78 slots, so teams with losing records are likely to get in again this year. The list below shows the number of slots for each conference in brackets, the teams that are already in, the teams that are almost there because they need one win, the teams that have the best shot at making it because they have four wins and don’t need to win out to be eligible, and the teams that are technically out of the running with seven or more losses. The conferences account for only 68 of the bowl slots because there are six at-large slots for the New Year's Six bowls and four slots in the playoff. Teams with asterisks play only 11 games.

AAC [7]: IN (5) – USF, UCF, Memphis, SMU, Houston; Almost (1) – Navy; Best Shot (1) – Temps (4-5); OUT – Tulsa, ECU

ACC/ND [8]: IN (6) – NCSt, Clemson, MiamiF, VaTech, ND, UVA; Almost (3) – L’ville, Wake, BC; Best Shot (4) – GaTech* (4-4), Syracuse, Duke, Pitt (all 4-5); OUT – UNC

B10 [10]: IN (7) – O$U, PSU, Wisc, MSU, Mich, Iowa, NW; Almost (0); Best Shot (5) – Minn, MD, Neb, Rutgers, Purdue (all 4-5); OUT – Illinois

B12 [7]: IN (5) – TCU, Okla, OklaSt, IowaSt, WVU; Almost (1) – KState; Best Shot (2) – Texas, Tx Tech (both 4-5); OUT – Baylor, Kansas

CUSA [7]: IN (5) – T’erd, UAB, FIU, FAU, NTex; Almost (3) – WKU, SMiss, UTSA*; Best Shot (2) – LaTech, MTSU (both 4-5); OUT – Charlotte, UTEP, Rice

MAC [4]: IN (3) – Toledo, OHIO, NIU; Almost (3) – WMU, Akron, CMU; Best Shot (0); OUT – BG, BSU, Kent

MWC [5]: IN (5) – SDSU, CSU, Boise, Fresno, Wyo; Almost (1) – UtahSt; Best Shot (2) – AFA, UNLV (both 4-5); OUT – SJSt, Nevada

PAC12 [5]: IN (5) – Wash, WashSt, USC, Stanford, AZ; Almost (5) – Oregon, Colo, Cal, Utah, AZSt; Best Shot (1) – UCLA (4-5); OUT – OreSt

SEC [9]: IN (7) – UGA, Bama, Auburn, LSU, UK, SCar, MissSt; Almost (1) – TxA&M; Best Shot (5) – Mizzou, Tenn, Vandy, Ole Miss, Ark (all 4-5)

SB [5]: IN (1) – Troy; Almost (3) – AppSt, ArkSt*, GaSt; Best Shot (2) – ULL (4-4), NMSt (4-5); OUT – GaSouth, Coastal Carolina, TxSt

Indies [1]: IN – Army; OUT – BYU, UMass
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Victory
11/5/2017 12:42 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
There are now 50 teams in and 21 more just a win away. That’s 71 of the 78 slots, so teams with losing records are likely to get in again this year. The list below shows the number of slots for each conference in brackets, the teams that are already in, the teams that are almost there because they need one win, the teams that have the best shot at making it because they have four wins and don’t need to win out to be eligible, and the teams that are technically out of the running with seven or more losses. The conferences account for only 68 of the bowl slots because there are six at-large slots for the New Year's Six bowls and four slots in the playoff. Teams with asterisks play only 11 games.
By the same token only 21 schools are eliminated from the possibility of having 6 wins. 71 have 5 or 6 wins. That means 38 are still have a lot of work to do but still can be eligible. All you need is a very low percentage (7 of 38) of these team to make good to fill all the slots.

Teamrankings projections, which takes into account the quality of the team vs. their remaining schedule, and not just how many wins that they have to project their chances has the eligibility chances summing to 79.4. It has been within a couple of tenths of that every week. Last year the number it was projecting constantly from the beginning was spot on. I'd bet that it is more likely than not that a 6-6 G5 team will be sitting home.
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Victory
11/5/2017 1:06 PM
Jerry Palm (CBS) - 12/20 Frisco Bowl (Dallas) vs. Houston
Davis Hale (ESPN) - 12/22 Potato Bowl (Boise) vs. Fresno State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) - 12/22 Potato Bowl (Boise) vs. Fresno State
Eric Single (SI) - 12/16 Camillia Bowl (Montgomery) vs. Georgia State
Jason Kirk (SBNation) - 12/22 Bahamas Bowl (Nassau) vs. UAB
Erick Smith (USAToday) - 12/22 Potato Bowl (Boise) vs. Colorado State
College Football News - 12/16 Camillia Bowl (Montgomery) vs. Troy

Edit: USAToday updated
Last Edited: 11/7/2017 5:48:41 PM by Victory
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