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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: We're #37
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Victory
11/12/2017 3:53 PM
Ohio got two points in the Coaches poll. Ohio got zero in the AP Poll. Russ predicted that this could happen on the radio.

Personally, I think that seeing how, after Toledo, the best teams that we have beaten are Miami and EMU and that we have lost to Purdue and CMU who are not on any poll voter's radar for the Top 25 that this is a bit generous.
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OhioBobcat
11/12/2017 4:49 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Ohio got two points in the Coaches poll. Ohio got zero in the AP Poll. Russ predicted that this could happen on the radio.

Personally, I think that seeing how, after Toledo, the best teams that we have beaten are Miami and EMU and that we have lost to Purdue and CMU who are not on any poll voter's radar for the Top 25 that this is a bit generous.
I agree. Ohio is maybe...maybe...one of the top 50 teams in the country. But top 25? No way.
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Ted Thompson
11/12/2017 4:53 PM
Sagarin rankings have Ohio as #51.
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Pete Chouteau
11/12/2017 4:58 PM
Bigger news is the S&P+ rating has us at #20.
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SWBC
11/12/2017 5:12 PM
I was checking the computer rankings to see where we were compared to the other G-5 teams and we're behind 13 or so other G-5 teams. Not looking good for the access bowl which I believe we would need a victory in to make the top 25. That is unless we end up as a fill-in, in a bowl against a decent P5 team and win.
Last Edited: 11/12/2017 5:15:42 PM by SWBC
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Victory
11/12/2017 5:20 PM
Yes, I think that if you had a Top 50 poll I think that I would put Ohio and Toledo in right near the end. NIU would be out but not by a huge amount. You might see WMU and/or CMU in a Top 75.

But the same goes for a lot of the teams in the "others receiving votes." If someone argues that their thought processes have Virginia Tech, Northwestern, or Arizona in there instead of someone at the bottom of the poll then OK. In fact, I think WVU should be around 30 myself. But what criteria and thought processes does someone use to get Army, Troy, or even Kentucky in their to 25?
Last Edited: 11/12/2017 8:07:13 PM by Victory
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Victory
11/12/2017 5:36 PM
SWBC wrote:expand_more
I was checking the computer rankings to see where we were compared to the other G-5 teams and we're behind 13 or so other G-5 teams. Not looking good for the access bowl which I believe we would need a victory in to make the top 25. That is unless we end up as a fill-in, in a bowl against a decent P5 team and win.
Massey actually allows for you to do a lot of sorting including by G5.
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2017&sub=283642
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Doc Bobcat
11/12/2017 5:57 PM
But what criteria and thought processes does someone use to get Army, Troy, or even Kentucky in their to 25? [/QUOTE]Exactly.
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C Money
11/12/2017 6:01 PM
SWBC wrote:expand_more
I was checking the computer rankings to see where we were compared to the other G-5 teams and we're behind 13 or so other G-5 teams. Not looking good for the access bowl which I believe we would need a victory in to make the top 25. That is unless we end up as a fill-in, in a bowl against a decent P5 team and win.
I think if there is no G5 conference champ in the CFP top 25, the G5 doesn't get an auto-bid.

We can get there, but we're going to have to have a lot of help. Something like:
1. Win the next 2 by 30+, plus face Toledo in the MACCG and beat them by 40+.
2. Memphis lose to SMU next week, then beat USF in the AAC championship, who has to beat UCF to get there.
3. Boise St lose to Fresno St in the MWC championship
4. Troy lose to Arky St.
5. Eight or so of the following teams lose between now and 12/2: LSU, Michigan State, WVU, NC State, VaTech, Northwestern, Arizona, Iowa State, Georgia Tech, Iowa, South Carolina, Kentucky, and San Diego State.
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mf279801
11/12/2017 7:34 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
I was checking the computer rankings to see where we were compared to the other G-5 teams and we're behind 13 or so other G-5 teams. Not looking good for the access bowl which I believe we would need a victory in to make the top 25. That is unless we end up as a fill-in, in a bowl against a decent P5 team and win.
I think if there is no G5 conference champ in the CFP top 25, the G5 doesn't get an auto-bid.
Not correct. Autobid goes to the highest ranked G5 conference champ. If there isn't a G5-conference champion in the committee's top 25, they will continue ranking until the get to such a team (e.g. if there is no G5 conference champ in the top 25, they will start ranking, and if Troy ranked at #56 is the first G5 conference champion they get to, then troy gets the bid).

Note 1: if through some fluke circumstance a G5 team that was NOT the conference champion was ranked #5, they would NOT get the G5-autobid (Because they're not a conference champion).

Note 2: if through some flue circumstance a G5 non-conference champion was ranked in the committee's final top 4, they WOULD go to the playoff but they would NOT count as the autobid, and an actual G5 conference champion would be slotted into the access NY6 bowl (though that game might not actually be played on account of all the flying pigs making air travel difficult).
Last Edited: 11/12/2017 7:35:25 PM by mf279801
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SWBC
11/13/2017 11:22 AM
At this point, the best G-5 conference champion will likely be UCF/USF or Memphis. Something very strange would need to happen for Ohio to jump them and some of the other G5 teams. If it's UCF, they will likely be undefeated since they play the other top team in their division, USF, the last game of the year. Frankly, if it isn't going to be Boca Raton or Bahamas, a game against a P5 team in the Quick Lane bowl could give Ohio an opportunity to elevate it's status in FBS. Not a very compelling bowl destination but it would be an easier trip for Students and the Bobcat faithful in the MAC footprint.

However, still need to take care of the Zips, buffs, and the MACC before we can think about an elevated bowl game.

InfoCision Bobcat takeover!
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The Optimist
11/13/2017 11:36 AM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Ohio got two points in the Coaches poll. Ohio got zero in the AP Poll. Russ predicted that this could happen on the radio.

Personally, I think that seeing how, after Toledo, the best teams that we have beaten are Miami and EMU and that we have lost to Purdue and CMU who are not on any poll voter's radar for the Top 25 that this is a bit generous.
I agree. Ohio is maybe...maybe...one of the top 50 teams in the country. But top 25? No way.
So what's your basis for discrediting the S&P+ Ratings?
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bshot44
11/13/2017 4:04 PM
The only thing I'd say is that the S&P+ don't take strength of schedule into consideration.

Ohio at #20 is pretty high ....

More out of place is Arkansas State (5-3) at #25. Do you really think the mighty Red Wolves are 25th best team in the country?

I think these ratings are really good at showing how efficient Ohio on both sides of the ball ... but it doesn't really take into consideration who they're doing it against.

Ohio has been really good both offensively and defensively over the course of the season ... but has had some issues in a few games (UMass defensively and EMU offensively) .... so i'm skeptical in using these ratings tor really determine the "top teams in the country"
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mf279801
11/13/2017 6:42 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
The only thing I'd say is that the S&P+ don't take strength of schedule into consideration.
"The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)" (From FootballOutsiders.com/stats/ncaa).

Honest question: doesn't "opponent-adjusted" mean that strength of schedule is being taken into consideration?
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