On paper, this game should not be close. Akron is giving up the second most yards/game in the league, at 441 yards/game, and second most first downs/game. Their offense is anemic, at 324.8 yards a game and 21.8 points a game. They are last in the MAC in rushing offense, and middle of the pack in passing offense, and near last in time of possession. Their pass efficiency and pass defense efficiency are both in the lower middle of the MAC. Their special teams don't look good, either, ranking them low in punting, and at the bottom in punt returns, and near the bottom in kickoff coverage, plus last in field goal percentage.
So, how is Akron challenging for the East? Smoke and mirrors? First, when the games have been close, they have come out on top, beating WMU 14-13, and Buffalo 21-20. Second, they have a positive turnover ratio. Most importantly, they have had a good red zone defense, giving up TDs less than half the time in the red zone.
Ohio has been very successful in the red zone, while Akron has been good at red zone defense. If Ohio can continue to punch the ball into the endzone, Ohio should win easily. In the last couple years, however, Akron has been much better than other teams in the MAC at stopping Ohio's offense. The last few years:
2016 Ohio 9, Akron 3 (season low points for Ohio)
2015 Ohio 14, Akron 12 (tie for season low for Ohio)
2014 Ohio 23, Akron 20
My conclusion is that Chuck Amato will have a sound defensive plan for Ohio. I'm sure he has a good idea how to stop the option, unlike some of the younger defensive coordinators in the MAC. I doubt Ohio will break 40 this game, but I think that in the end, Ohio is the better team, and they will win this one, but it won't be a cakewalk.
Last Edited: 11/10/2017 8:57:19 AM by L.C.