...College football and college basketball are the only sports cash cows these schools have to keep the myriad of other athletic programs afloat. If they don't make money how is the women's field hockey team or the men's fencing team going to make money?
Women's sports don't need to make money. They are a cost of having men's football. If football revenues fall enough to cause football to be discontinued, the women's sports will no longer be required.
Going back to the dot.com bubble analogy, yes I think it's a bubble but not the kind that many on here are hoping for. It wasn't the Intels, Microsofts and Googles that went under when that bubble burst. It was the pets.com type of companies that weren't making any money and relying on their next round of VC infusions to stay in business. That sound a lot more like the G5 programs that need millions in subsidies to balance their AD budget.
That's where the bubble will burst first. The question is whether it will filter up to the P5 schools.
I think you're right, at least partially. The first thing that comes to mind are schools at the FCS level that are spending money prolifically to move up to FBS, and they could be the leaders in a crash. Technically, though, I think we've already seen the first school to crash, that being Akron, who was nearly bankrupted by their facilities expansion. Other than them, and perhaps WMU, most of the MAC hasn't gone crazy on spending, and particularly not on expansion financed by debt, so I don't see the MAC at the forefront of a crash.
Don't forget that unlike Microsoft/Google, a school like Texas A&M doesn't have any guaranteed football revenue. If fans lose interest in football, whether over the CTE issues, or something else, they can easily reduce their contributions and ticket purchases, and then, along with declining TV contracts, their revenue stream can change dramatically. Considering that future revenues seem uncertain, for the first time in my lifetime, a ten-year guaranteed contract seems pretty crazy to do at this time.