Just got Phil Steele's football guide. I was blown away by two of the offensive rankings that he gave OHIO:

Rushing Offense #9
Scoring Offense #1

That's right. He's predicting we will have the #1 scoring offense in the nation. Second place goes to Fake OU, and Fake Ohio is ranked #14.

Now, on the downside, he ranks OHIO #127 in Defensive Rush.

Being an optimist, I will say that my takeaway is that if our defense is just a little better than projected, this could be one very special season for the Bobcats.

Go OHIO!

The good news is, if we're a top scoring offense, teams likely won't be running too much on us. Instead, they'll need to use the deep ball, or at least a powerful passing attack, to stay in games.

My disagreement would be on our scoring offense. I don't see us being a quick-strike team. I think we'll be a team that scores on a high percentage of our possessions, but with a strong focus on our running attack and possibly a balanced offense, I think we'll score frequently, just not quickly. I think of teams like Texas Tech or Oklahoma that score quickly when I think top-ranked scoring offenses. I sure hope I'm wrong, and Steele is right. That would be unbelievable if we are near the top in scoring offense. This year could turn into something incredibly special then.

I agree with that analysis. It would not surprise me at all to see some regression to the mean after last season's jump in scoring output.

I also don't think the drop off on defense will be as bad as some project. I have few (if any) concerns about the D line, and while we will miss the experience we had at LB, I think the guys stepping up will acquit themselves well. My defensive concerns remain with the secondary...

So, he's projecting 482.9 yards of total offense, and 43.1 ppg. That is close to my estimate of 480.1 yards/game and 39.3 points per game. [Note: I included the digit after the decimal point to imply a false sense of accuracy to support a number that I pulled out of the air.] He is projecting a point for every 11.2 yards of offense, which is virtually identical to last year's number, of a point for every 11.1 yards of offense. The ratio or yards to points for prior years:
2011 14.6
2012 18.1
2013 13.8
2014 18.1
2015 15.1
2016 14.9
2017 11.1
2018 11.2 (Steele) or 12.2 (Me)?????

Like bobcatsquared, I expect a little regression in terms of red zone efficiency, and I think it will come in between lat year's 11.1 and the year before's 14.9.

On the defensive side, he expects Ohio to give up 390.0 yards a game, and 26.8 points, a ratio of a point for every 14.6 yards. Ohio has given up only a point every 15.6 yards, historically, and you have to go back to 2007-8 to find Ohio giving up a number like Steele suggests. If Ohio only gives up 390 yards/a game, and they match the historical average of 15.6, the points they give up will be 25, not 26.8.

Projecting how the defense will do is difficult, though. As finnOhio points out, if Ohio is putting up a ton of points, the other team will be playing catchup, meaning they will be throwing deep a lot. That, in turn, can lead to more points, or less (if it worked that well to throw deep all the time, teams would do it all the time). Also, the nature of Ohio's offense affects the defense.

Here are some questions:
1. Will the Ohio offense be a long-drive ball-control offense? If so, the defense will be well rested, and will play tough.
2. Will the Ohio offense be a quick-strike offense? If so, that may put the defense on the field quickly, and they may get stung right back fairly often (i.e., MACtion).
3. If the other team is throwing deep a lot, will Ohio have the pass rush to rack up sacks? In that case, the defensive numbers will be awesome - not so many yards, and few points. That often happens if the other team is forced to pass every down, and the defense can just get after the QB.
4. If there aren't tons of sacks, will the DB's be able to get a lot of pass breakups, and interceptions, or will they get burned a lot?

So many questions, so few answers. I guess we'll have to wait for the actual games to know the answer. ;)