Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
2/16/2024 2:22 PM
Along those lines . . . when will this college football/basketball arms race burst?
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Some believe that athletes should be made into employees. Others believe that if that happens, it will burst the bubble. It's unclear what those who want to see athletes become employees think will happen next. I'm inclined to believe that they simply believe that the system is too big to fail, and that the money will appear somehow to make it work. I don't believe that will happen, and I agree that while colleges may indeed be forced to make athletes into employees, it would lead to tectonic changes.
It definitely will lead to tectonic changes.
But I think people are thinking about "employment" in the wrong way, and make a baseline assumption that the only way money can change hands in an employment agreement is through hourly or salaried pay.
In my mind, "employment" in this context is going to be about carving up the existing pie in a way that gives athletes a share of the money. I don't think any party has any incentive to insist that the pie has to get bigger and schools expenses have to change. Everybody knows what the pie looks like.
Instead, I think what you end up with is a union that collectively bargains a revenue share. It'll look just like the NBA, but with much smaller numbers. The NBA salary cap is directly tied to a percentage of basketball revenue. The union will negotiate what share of revenue they get, and how that gets divided amongst its members. They'll also negotiate around things like time requirements, schedules, access to benefits, etc.
But I entirely expect that many members of this union will basically make nothing. Maybe some extra cash in their pocket -- two grand a semester or something -- but that the money will be allocated based on who contributed. Schools & sports that generate revenue will get a larger share, and schools like Ohio will get very little.
In other words, in the scheme of things all that will change is where the money flows. Not how much is spent. And the vast majority of college athletes will still receive 99% of their compensation through educational benefits alone, though there will no longer be restrictions on schools who have the ability to do so sharing revenue with the players that create value for them.
I also think you're right that some sports will become club sports as a result. But the driver of that will be the schools themselves, not some massive change in the cost of college athletics. Right now, schools spend way more on Men's Basketball and Football than anything else. That'll continue, and they'll funnel more money to the players in the interest of being competitive. The same arms race that's already in flight, but some of the money going to the programs that are the wisest investment.