With the change in the transfer rule allowing players to move on without sitting out a year, I wonder if it is possible that we may actually see an up-tick in the quality of players recruited by at least some mid-major programs. I’m not talking about McDonalds All-Americans but those somewhere in between that level and those typically recruited by mid-majors now.

The recruit may not necessarily be guaranteed a starting role, or even a very significant one, in that first year or two with a major program and they might perceive that as not maximizing their exposure or development. They may be impatient to “shine” sooner. They can sign and play for the mid-major program for up to three years, show what they have, and enter the transfer portal. If they really have a connection with their mid-major coach, if and when that coach gets a bigger job, they could even go with him to the larger program. The coach might even recruit them and tell them they would help them transfer if and when the time came. Sort of a “One and Done Lite” in some respects. The coach may also think he might convince the player to stay once their relationship gets even stronger and if he is not moving on.

I’m not saying this is a good thing. In fact, I’d not like to see it. However, I can’t help but think this might be one of the consequences of the rule change.

I very much agree with you that the transfer rule will greatly favor the majors overall. My thoughts here are basically the same theme as what you are saying, “poaching by the majors”. Just a different plan/path for that to occur that may be good or bad for mid-majors, depending upon how one looks at it. I don’t necessarily think it will happen all that often but I think it could occur from time to time.

Gonzaga and Saint Mary's have been able to keep the same coaches, Mark Few and Randy Bennett respectively, for 20+ years. BYU was already a top tier program when they joined the conference. Until the MAC starts being able to keep their good coaches I don't see any teams becoming dominant especially now that the new transfer rules make us essentially AAA farm clubs.

Didn't Buffalo have a MAC record 6 seed two years ago? Set a MAC record for number of wins?

Greater downside risk but more upside potential for the MAC program. Two to the transfer portal allows Boals room to add for immediate needs.