For something other than domestic/personal issues or NCAA infractions, I'd say March 1. ADs aren't so willing to pull the trigger on b-ball coaches as they are on football coaches.

My early pick would be GWU. Maurice Joseph is in his second-plus year (he was interim coach in 2016) and hasn't been impressive. He's 35-36 overall and 17-19 in the A10. This year they're 0-3 with home losses to Stony Brook and Sienna and a 19-pt loss at UVA. He's in the third year of a five-year contract, which would likely have not too large of a buyout

GW is now 0-5. Yesterday they trailed a so-so South Carolina team 49-8 with about three minutes to go in the first half. If this keeps up, Joseph may be gone before the conference season starts.