UB 87
Ohio 64

According to KenPom -

Buffalo is averaging 114.0 pts/100 possesions
Buffalo is allowing 94.5 pts/100 possesions
Buffalo is averaging 75.2 possession/40 minutes

Ohio is averaging 95.3 pts/100 possessions
Ohio is allowing 99.9 pts/100 possessions
Ohio is averaging 69.9 possessions/40 minutes

If everything plays according to "averages" then we'd have 72.55 possessions.
Buffalo would score (114.0+99.9 / 2) = 106.95 pts/100 poss = 1.0695 pts/poss
Ohio would score (94.5+95.3 / 2) = 94.90 pts/100 poss = 0.9490 pts/poss

Which means the final score SHOULD be:
Buffalo (1.0695*72.55) = 77.59
Ohio (0.9490*72.55) = 68.85

So call is Buffalo 78-69, though I tend to think we're not playing well now (versus our season "average") so it could be a little worse. Something like 80-63.

I like these. I will raise you 32 points from Jayvon Graves who looks at the coaching staff each time he scores and says "I'm one of the ones who got away that you had no chance with. I am a microcosm of all of your recruiting!"

I saw someone asked Arkley on Saturday why James and Springs weren't playing. His answer: "They aren't as good as the guys ahead of them." What does that say about our talent level that two young guys are wasting away while we are in a 5-game losing streak with an inept offense? My guess is Saul knows he's out and is giving his seniors a chance to play it out while keeping the redshirts on so James and Springs can transfer.

I can understand Springs. 6'10'' players who are ready to go immediately don't grow on trees. Those that are ready don't often end up in the MAC or similar conferences. I'm okay with taking a flyer on a guy like that and hoping he can develop physically with a redshirt year. With James, that is telling. A kid who's in shape but can't get on the court when we only go eight deep on a losing team.

It appears that there is almost zero chance that Ohio can beat Buffalo on Tuesday; of course, that is ridiculous, because there is always a chance that this could happen, unless, of course, the 'Cats decide to just stay home. I think that is what makes this game fascinating to me. Are the Bobcats really going to get schooled and then some, or is Buffalo at risk of getting caught sleeping?

Yes, at Purdue 2 months ago.

We are 19.5 pt. underdogs.

buffalo -20 is a lock.

It's certainly the only MAC game I can remember where we have basically zero chance of winning. Maybe there were some in '97-'98 when we went 3-15 and lost by huge margins but I don't recall any.

CG maybe they would make a half-point difference. No more in fact I was surprised Vegas only has this at 19.5 pts. I thought this would open at 22pts at a minimum.

Saturday, in Michigan, giving up 87 to Central wouldn't be considered solid defense. Was that the new norm or just a one game aberration? Buffalo has to have a better offensive than Central which could mean a score in the high 80's of mid 90's.

As for any of us who think the Cats would be better with Darts, don't confuse that feeling as an excuse to protect the coach. There has to be a "cascade effect" when you lose a proven lethal three point threat. His release was so quick and stroke accurate. Would that not make the opponent put their best defender on him instead of on the guy they now defend? Wouldn't the extra help on Dartis leave another mate open. Wouldn't Carter be more effective? Wouldn't turnover and assist ratio improve when Dartis is on the floor, less turnovers and more BANGs. Wouldn't the free throw shooting be improved especially late in a game? His presence may indeed have marginal effect against a power like the Bulls but a Dartis on the floor and victories may have come in several other MAC games. As for Gollon, his Bobcat grade is incomplete--no way of knowing if the glimpses of him on the floor would have made any impact on the results of games vs Dartis the proven and consistent producer in his first two years here.

So your best guess is thatthose two guys move the line 12 points? Just for point of reference, Vegas oddsmakers last year had only four Tier I players. Tier I’s were guys that when they didn’t play, moved the line 5 points. No other guys could move the line more than 5 alone. Those 4 were Giannis, K. Leonard, Harden and Lebron.