Their PG Carsen Edwards is averaging 25+ points per game. I'm assuming Ohio will put Cowart on him, as he's probably been our best perimeter defender at this point. Also would not be surprised to see Ohio go bigger than usual with more minutes for BVP to combat their front line.
I'll take the over on Edwards getting his 25pts and 4ast averages. He's the best PG we're gonna face this year by far in my opinion. As a team, they aren't as good as I thought they'd be though. Maybe if TK can manage to keep the turnovers to 3-4 instead of 7-9, we'll have a chance to be in this one late. Maybe.
I can live with 6-7 from TK. Yes, 3-4 is ideal, but he has to make things happen and he has the ball the most. What we can't have is a bunch from everyone else. we need good hands all around and let's face it, we'll need an above average shooting night. We are a terrible outside shooting team but can get away with it many nights. We're also a below average FT Shooting team and that has to improve if we want to win close games against good teams. Who do you trust at the line right now? Carter? That's about it. If we want to pull an upset on the road, this is one time where we can't get away with that.
I agree with all of your thoughts there except the TO's. It's hard to overcome your primary ball handler leading the nation in turns - against almost any team that's any good.
For the sake of comparison, I looked up Simmons, Willis, and Taylor under Saul. Simmons averaged about 4 turns a game, but also averaged 6.5 and 7.9 assists/game. TK is never gonna get to those types of numbers, and averages nearly 6 a game to 3.4 assists.
Willis averaged 2.8 and Taylor 1.7 in their senior year by comparison.