Not sure why I can’t get this point across. If I shoot three from I get nine points. In order to do that inside the three point line, I would have to get five baskets out of ten shots. I simply think more teams shoot better than 33% from outside the arc than shoot 50% from inside the arc.
But not all 2pt shots are created equal. You're missing the math. I went back and compiled full season stats for the MAC this year based on shot type using Torvik's stats. I figured it was the most applicable to us/this discussion and I didn't have time to do it for the full NCAA. This is all 12 teams combined for this year.
Dunks: 522-616 .847. Pts/shot = 1.695
Close 2s: 5017-8630 .581. Pts/shot = 1.163
Far 2s: 1696-4454 .381. Pts/shot = 0.762
FT: 5143-7046 .730. Pts/poss = 1.361*
3pt: 2820-8401 .336. Pts/shot = 1.007
*note: I assumed 50% were 2 shot attempts and 50% were 1-and-1s bc this data wasn't readily available. The actual value will scale proportion to the # of 2 shot trips, but the final value will still end up above close 2s and behind dunks.
For you to purposely take away a 3 and instead give them a close 2, the team would need to be shooting above 39% from 3 given a normal 58% from close 2.
Zero teams in the MAC shot 39% or above from 3. The highest was Miami at 38.3%. Next was Akron at 36.6%. Of course both were good shooting teams so they actually shot 60.5% and 61.8% from close 2s, higher than the 58% league average. So close 2s were still worth more per shot than 3s even for them.
If you add all 2 pt shots together you get
2pt: 7235-13700 .528. Pts/shot = 1.056
3pt: 2820-8401 .336. Pts/shot = 1.007
Last Edited: 3/20/2025 6:41:36 PM by GraffZ06