Why couldn't OHIO make it to the 4th seed?
Who is #4 if a tie with Buffalo, Ball and OHIO? Or throw in Toledo and make it a four way 9-9 for 4th or what if Kent also has 9-9 --who wins the slot?
If a 3-way tie between Ohio/Buffalo/Ball St:
Ohio is 1-2 against UB/Balls
Buffalo is 2-2 against Ball/OU
Ball St is 2-1 against OU/Buffalo
So in that case Ball St would get #4, Buffalo #5 and Ohio #6.
If it's a 4-way tie adding Toledo:
Ohio is 1-3 against UB/Balls/UT
Buffalo is 3-2 against Balls/OU/UT
Ball St is 3-2 against UB/OU/UT
Toledo is 2-2 against OU/UB/Balls
So in that case, Buffalo would get #4 (due to better record vs. Akron/BG), Ball St would get #5, Toledo would get #6 and Ohio would get #7.
That's why #6 is our best (and still unlikely) case. Let's just hope for #8.