Well, humanity, you had a good run. It was probably time.
Lol
Children and women are not very susceptible, so even in a worst case scenario, humanity isn't threatened.
On the bright side, as of today, for the first time more people are reported to have recovered than have died (348 recovered, 305 dead).
For up to date data, this website from Johns Hopkins is useful:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/inde... It is updated several times a day, not continuously.
A note: you can't take the 305 dead and compare it to the 14,628 cases to get a 2.1% death rate. First, we can assume that if the disease were to stop spreading today, more of the 14,628 people will die before all is said and done. The 305 dead should probably be compared to the number of cases about a week ago, since most of the dead probably were identified for a week or so before they eventually succumbed. A week ago there were 2700 cases. So, is the death rate really 305/2700, or 11%?
There are also factors working in the other direction. It is likely that as the disease spread in China, and hospitals filled (they just added a 1000 bed hospital, built in a few days, and are building another), several factors kicked in that most likely mean that cases have been under-reported. First, people with mild symptoms probably didn't go in, or were sent home. Second, China may not have enough test kits to actually test all the people who should be tested. Third, China may be intentionally under-reporting the cases. Another factor that may indicate that the death rate is lower is that 294/305 death are from the Wuhan area. Clearly their medical system was overwhelmed, which is why they built the emergency hospital, and are building another. Perhaps the death rate was only as high as it was because they couldn't deliver the necessary care to the people in need.
There is much we don't know, but clearly this is a situation that needs to be monitored. We just don't know how serious it will be, but in 1-2 weeks, the picture will be much clearer.
Edit - even more are listed as recovered since this morning. Now at 443 recovered, versus 305 deceased. Even better news: while deaths still exceed recoveries in the Wuhan area, where medical facilities were overwhelmed, if you look at data from the rest of the world it is much more encouraging. There are 176 people now listed as recovered outside of Wuhan, compared to 11 deceased, so it appears that with proper medical care, most people will survive, and so long as the medical system is not overwhelmed, the death rate is much lower than initially reported. It does still have a much higher need for hospitalization than the flu, however.
Last Edited: 2/2/2020 2:49:35 PM by L.C.