My prediction is because the only way to guarantee more revenue is by expanding the postseason we will see an expanded NCAA tournament soon.
If they moved to 72 teams they could go to 8 play-in games pre Thursday. Make the teams all be the last 8 at-large bids out so 16 and 15 can get the reward of a first round weekend against a #1/#2 seed for winning their conferences.
Then with 8 games on Tuesday/Wednesday with Top 40 schools represented that would bring in more ratings than having 4 games with two of them play-ins for 16 seed. At the moment the play-in games are somewhat discounted since the only decent names that show up in it are St. Bonaventure or VCU. But with 16 teams including a lot of P5 names Tuesday/Wednesday would marketable opening days.
That would increase the chances of the MAC getting a second bid in the NCAAs and also free up 4 more slots in the NIT which is a national TV tournament with higher caliber teams than CIT/CBI. P5 of course won't even participate in CBI/CIT.
The missed point here is if the P5 splits off they have to fund, by themselves all the support that the NCAA provides, have to hire their own investigation teams and compliance teams, and WITHOUT the subsidy of 1200 other schools membership dues.
The reality is, if the P5 schools agreed to form the new conference, there would be absolutely no issue finding the money to make it work based on the revenue it would generate, nor would they have an issue building the committees they need. Since I’m assuming this league would be changing their rules, allowing schools to pay players, and so on, I think it essentially becomes a semi-pro league over time.
There’s 65 Power 5 football teams. They could play a March Madness style tournament where everyone gets in. Can you imagine how much money those games would make? Through ticket sales and ad space?
The other question I have is do all of the member schools contribute equally? For example, I can’t imagine Wittenberg is contributing the same amount of money as OSU, a university of 60,000+ students. Iif they aren’t contributing the same amount of money, then it’s possible the P5 is better off because they aren’t helping support the smaller schools and money from media contracts, playoffs, tournaments merchandise, etc. is divided among fewer schools.
I think the way the P5 ultimately breaks off is a TV network approaches some individual who is not currently a coach or administrator but is highly respected in the NCAA and College football in general. Someone who would become the commissioner of the new league and communicate with the big time programs and league commissioners to sell them on the idea. Then for the most part the network winds up paying for the league through streaming and televising games. Basically you get someone like Peyton Manning, Urban Meyer, Desmond Howard, or whoever to be the commissioner and then try organizing from there. Who knows if that’s how it happens, but it seems to make sense to me.