Per KenPom ratings there are 17 teams with lower ratings than us amongst the auto-qualifiers which would put us in the 13 range.

I've looked at 5 different sites this morning and they are pretty consistent from top to bottom. We are always a 13. I think we figure to be about #52 of 68, which considering there will be 10 total teams seeded 11 and 12 (the playin games may have moved to the 11 line with all the bid thievery) leaves leeway on either side in being a 13. I don't see how we could be a 12. We lost to many games when the team was not together. I think a 14 is possible.

I did a study using various computer systems about 15-20 years ago using several years of system rankings and NCAA brackets. Some rank teams by strength of record or something similar. This answers the question on how hard your win/loss record is to achieve against your schedule. Some systems are predictive and rank teams by who is most likely to win a future matchup if it happens. Some are a mixture. Chairmen sometimes hinted that the criteria for inclusion is different than that of seeding.

I found that the strength of record systems did a better job of predicting inclusion. This makes some measure of sense. In every profession sport your record is what matters. You don't get in the playoffs over a team with a better record because the Vegas oddsmakers like you. I found that the mixed systems predicted seeding the best and this makes some sense as well. If you are being rewarded for getting a high seed you hope that this reward means that you are actually more likely to be playing matchups that you actually have a better chance to win than if you are seeded lower.

Given how good this team has looked most of the time when everyone is together, if you are a 3 three seed, do you want to play Ohio or would you rather play Morehead St, Colgate, Abilene Christian or Eastern Washington? If we get a #13 seed, and I feel pretty good that we will, that is the main reason rather than OUr W/L resume being noticeably better.

Joe Lunardi has Ohio as a 13 against Purdue. The other 4 seeds are West Virginia, Florida State and Virginia. The 3 seeds, in the event Ohio is a 14, are Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas and Arkansas. I think 13 is most likely.

welp

There are a lot of pros and cons with this matchup, which is crazy to say since they are ACC regular season and basically defending NCAA champs since there was no tournament last year. But they can get cold and only beat Kent State by three in OT early this year. And, despite winning it all in 2019, have quite the history of choking. Plus, obviously, COVID.

They just showed the brackets again, and we were seeded #51 overall. That puts us as the top 13 seed I believe.

https://img.17qq.com/images/hmdpdocohlv.jpeg

Virginia was No. 14 last time we kicked their ass at Virginia and Jeff Boals was a player in the game.

Sagarin “Recent” Rankings which gives more weight to a team’s performance in recent games:

Virginia: 86.86
OHIO: 83.15

Vs regular season ranking of:

Virginia: 88.82
OHIO: 76.68

Bring on UVA. One week ago today we weren’t even sure if we’d be able to play in the MAC tournament because of COVID. Doesn’t matter to me who we play.

Bilas just called Preston the "Lamelo Ball of the NCAA tournament" and Ohio is the team that could put pressure on Gonzaga. We haven't even played UVA yet. Slow down Bilas!

IMO if the pace of play is such that it's only a 130 point game - we're going to lose by more than 65-55.

Exactly why I said they'd be a nightmare opponent.