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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Virginia is Last in the Nation In...
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JSF
3/16/2021 7:47 PM
...pace. 357 of 357. That's right, nobody played a slower game. The shot clock is merely a suggestion to them. A team of tortoises are run-and-gun in comparison. Charlie Coles's ghost wants them to get on with it already.

And it's not as though they're playing in the plodding Big 10 of ten years ago; the ACC is one of the faster major conferences. Ohio, sixth in the MAC, would be fourth in the ACC.

So, I think we can draw a couple conclusions from this: Virginia is really good at making the other team play their game, they're very disciplined, and given the circumstances the team is dealing with, they're going to want to play the slowest game they possibly can. Our defense is going to need to be prepared to play 35 seconds of impeccable defense, often consecutively when they get offensive rebounds. Help and rotations are going to be critical; believe they will see it if we leave an opening.

I know there's a lot of talk about their COVID situation, but if there's a team that's built to handle this, it's Virginia.
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ReasFordHoo
3/16/2021 8:25 PM
If you're the gambling type, the first half Ohio line is almost a guarantee. Virginia is notorious for slow starts. Where Virginia really thrives is late game situations where a teams legs are tired from a full game of guarding for 30 seconds.

Virginia sends one guy to the offensive glass, everyone else is back in transition. You will not get transition buckets.

How has Ohio played this year in low possession games?
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The Optimist
3/16/2021 9:45 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
Our defense is going to need to be prepared to play 35 seconds of impeccable defense, often consecutively when they get offensive rebounds. Help and rotations are going to be critical; believe they will see it if we leave an opening.

I've got very little faith in our ability to play 35 seconds of impeccable defense, let alone win the rebounding battle...

I guess my optimism will need to rely on a flurry of 3's from BVP, Roderick and Preston.
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JSF
3/16/2021 11:00 PM
ReasFordHoo wrote:expand_more
You will not get transition buckets.
We're pretty good in transition, especially off turnovers. Also smart.
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GraffZ06
3/17/2021 1:16 AM
I said it on Sunday and I'll say it again - this is a terrible draw for us from a match-up and stylistic standpoint. We can definitely win, but it will take a monumental effort.

While we are very efficient offensively, we're going to NEED to be with the limited number of possessions and we're not going to get many/any easy buckets in transition, inside with Wilson or on offensive rebounds. Their pace and defense and size will nullify some of our offensive talent unless we are really hitting from 3. If BVP can play pick and pop with Preston, Sears and Preston can get some drive and kicks and Roderick et al are shooting lights out...then we've got a chance.

We have certainly picked up our defense recently, but it's not where this team hangs it hat - which worries me with UVA's deliberate play that forces us to guard for the full shot clock.

I mentioned earlier this year that while we can routinely score 80 any night, we'd win a lot more games if we'd figure out how to keep our opponent under 70 - which we were only doing half the time at that point in the season.

Over our last 10 games we're averaging 82.3 ppg while giving up 71.7 ppg. And we're 9-1.

We might hold UVA under/around 70, problem is there's no way we're scoring 80.
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spongeBOB CATpants
3/17/2021 9:38 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
I said it on Sunday and I'll say it again - this is a terrible draw for us from a match-up and stylistic standpoint. We can definitely win, but it will take a monumental effort.

While we are very efficient offensively, we're going to NEED to be with the limited number of possessions and we're not going to get many/any easy buckets in transition, inside with Wilson or on offensive rebounds. Their pace and defense and size will nullify some of our offensive talent unless we are really hitting from 3. If BVP can play pick and pop with Preston, Sears and Preston can get some drive and kicks and Roderick et al are shooting lights out...then we've got a chance.

We have certainly picked up our defense recently, but it's not where this team hangs it hat - which worries me with UVA's deliberate play that forces us to guard for the full shot clock.

I mentioned earlier this year that while we can routinely score 80 any night, we'd win a lot more games if we'd figure out how to keep our opponent under 70 - which we were only doing half the time at that point in the season.

Over our last 10 games we're averaging 82.3 ppg while giving up 71.7 ppg. And we're 9-1.

We might hold UVA under/around 70, problem is there's no way we're scoring 80.
Damn, guess I better not watch the game then...
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GoCats105
3/17/2021 9:42 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Our defense is going to need to be prepared to play 35 seconds of impeccable defense, often consecutively when they get offensive rebounds. Help and rotations are going to be critical; believe they will see it if we leave an opening.

I've got very little faith in our ability to play 35 seconds of impeccable defense, let alone win the rebounding battle...

I guess my optimism will need to rely on a flurry of 3's from BVP, Roderick and Preston.
Rebounding is going to be H-U-G-E. Can't let them get 2nd chance opportunities and allow them to drain the clock even more than they already will.
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GraffZ06
3/17/2021 10:49 AM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
I said it on Sunday and I'll say it again - this is a terrible draw for us from a match-up and stylistic standpoint. We can definitely win, but it will take a monumental effort.

While we are very efficient offensively, we're going to NEED to be with the limited number of possessions and we're not going to get many/any easy buckets in transition, inside with Wilson or on offensive rebounds. Their pace and defense and size will nullify some of our offensive talent unless we are really hitting from 3. If BVP can play pick and pop with Preston, Sears and Preston can get some drive and kicks and Roderick et al are shooting lights out...then we've got a chance.

We have certainly picked up our defense recently, but it's not where this team hangs it hat - which worries me with UVA's deliberate play that forces us to guard for the full shot clock.

I mentioned earlier this year that while we can routinely score 80 any night, we'd win a lot more games if we'd figure out how to keep our opponent under 70 - which we were only doing half the time at that point in the season.

Over our last 10 games we're averaging 82.3 ppg while giving up 71.7 ppg. And we're 9-1.

We might hold UVA under/around 70, problem is there's no way we're scoring 80.
Damn, guess I better not watch the game then...
Why would you do that? It's the single biggest most exciting and important sporting event of the year for OU. It's must watch. I gave plenty of positive examples how we could win. It's not LIKELY but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Any given day. We just have to be better than them on Saturday. They can be better the other 364 days.
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JSF
3/17/2021 1:27 PM
I don't see what's wrong with looking at the opponent honestly and talking about what it will take to beat them. That's fun for a lot of us. And I don't see why we wouldn't point out how difficult it's going to be, because it is going to be a very hard game. Can we win? Yes, but we have to bring our A-game.
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spongeBOB CATpants
3/17/2021 3:32 PM
The Athletic gives us a 42% chance to win using what they call the "slingshot model" developed by Furman University Mathematics Dept.

Opponents are hitting 34% of 3's against them. We are shooting almost 37% from deep.

Virginia's greatest strength on offense is 3 point shooting, an off night would be catastrophic for their slow it down approach. UVA takes 42.3% percent of its shots from deep and hits 38.1% of them. They'll need to keep that pace in this game.

Add in that the Bobcats are 29th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

The Athletic goes on to say that Virginia will have to have one of its best offensive nights to beat us. They don't seem too concerned with lack of possessions and mentions that Ohio should be able to score relatively easily.

Jay Bilas has us in the sweet 16 against Gonzaga.

Come on guys, I think we are overblowing our opponent a bit. I'm not saying they aren't tough but I don't think we'll have to play a perfect game to win.

Rebounding will be the deciding factor in this game.
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ReasFordHoo
3/17/2021 3:42 PM
"Virginia's greatest strength on offense is 3 point shooting, an off night would be catastrophic for their slow it down approach. UVA takes 42.3% percent of its shots from deep and hits 38.1% of them. They'll need to keep that pace in this game."

Completely disagree. Check out the last regular season game of the year versus Louisville. Virginia made 3 of 15 three pointers and won by 10 on the road. Hauser is extremely effective in the mid range game and Huff will get plenty of lobs around the basket.

Of course, it's much more likely to win if Virginia is shooting the ball well from deep, but with the defense and ability to run efficient offense, it's not necessary.
Last Edited: 3/17/2021 3:43:14 PM by ReasFordHoo
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spongeBOB CATpants
3/17/2021 4:33 PM
ReasFordHoo wrote:expand_more
"Virginia's greatest strength on offense is 3 point shooting, an off night would be catastrophic for their slow it down approach. UVA takes 42.3% percent of its shots from deep and hits 38.1% of them. They'll need to keep that pace in this game."

Completely disagree. Check out the last regular season game of the year versus Louisville. Virginia made 3 of 15 three pointers and won by 10 on the road. Hauser is extremely effective in the mid range game and Huff will get plenty of lobs around the basket.

Of course, it's much more likely to win if Virginia is shooting the ball well from deep, but with the defense and ability to run efficient offense, it's not necessary.
I haven't watched a single minute of Virginia basketball this year and I'm sure you probably haven't seen many Ohio games either.

My post was all based on analysis provided by people that get paid to do this stuff.

Don't underestimate this Ohio offense just because they come from the MAC, I'm not saying we will put up 80 but I feel confident we'll score more than 58.
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JSF
3/17/2021 4:51 PM
I'm sure Virginia has a win or two when the shots weren't falling, which is what good teams do. However, if that many of your shots are from three, it's the lynchpin of your offense and it's going to be quite a bit more difficult to win if they're not falling.

I don't think I'm overhyping Virginia, but they're 11th in Kenpom, 12th in offensive efficiency, 33rd in defensive. The gap from Illinois to Virginia is quite a bit smaller than Virginia to Buffalo. It's March, they want to win, we want to win, and both teams have something to prove. We absolutely must show the same focus and poise we did in Cleveland. We need to come out expecting to win and ready to do the work.
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Victory
3/17/2021 6:04 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
I'm sure Virginia has a win or two when the shots weren't falling, which is what good teams do. However, if that many of your shots are from three, it's the lynchpin of your offense and it's going to be quite a bit more difficult to win if they're not falling.

I don't think I'm overhyping Virginia, but they're 11th in Kenpom, 12th in offensive efficiency, 33rd in defensive. The gap from Illinois to Virginia is quite a bit smaller than Virginia to Buffalo. It's March, they want to win, we want to win, and both teams have something to prove. We absolutely must show the same focus and poise we did in Cleveland. We need to come out expecting to win and ready to do the work.
Illinois is #4 in KenPom. Virginia ia #11. And you called up Buffalo, who is slightly behind Toledo, and slightly ahead of Ohio and several other MAC schools for comparison who is #68. So one gap is 7 spots and the other is 57 spots. But I don't think that looking at that is the relevant comparison. There is a funny thing about a normal (bell curve distribution) where most teams are near the level of play in the middle and very few in the skinny tail. There is 14 points between #1 and #11 and only about half a point between #161 and #171.

Illinois is 8 points better than Virginia. Virginia is 10 points better than Buffalo. But we played at Illinois and our game in the first round of the NCAA and the last round of the MAC is neutral. I hate to tell the guys who coached basketball for a living how much missing practice is going to hurt but I think a lot of them are blowing one week with one practice before gameday out of proportion. Still, I don't see how it can help. For this comparison, we need to add a point or two to the difficulty of playing at Illinois and subtract at least a point or two off of Virginia for COVID reasons. That means the difficulty here is somewhat closer to beating Buffalo that final time than to winning at Illinois even under the best case scenarios for Virginia in terms of who cannot play.
Last Edited: 3/17/2021 6:06:58 PM by Victory
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Bobcat Debate 73
3/17/2021 6:32 PM
I am an Ohio grad and a big UVA fan with son a two degree grad of UVA (other son a Bobcat). UVA can win with the three or win with Defense and Two pointers. Inside game with Huff is great when open. Huff is an NBA prospect, shoots the three, great on pick and pop, blocks are awesome, defense on bogs is excellent, rebounds well. Hauser also NBA prospect, great touch in and outside the arc. 5'9" PG Clark has heart, gumption, basketball IQ. Rises to the occasion. Pass on semi final NcaA semis as a frosh was epic! Murphy and Woldetenase it threes, can drive, and Been!an it nice game winning 3 in last game! Lots of talent, and Tom Bennett as couch is no slouch.

I am starting to talk myself out of having OHIO advancing in my bracket! This game will be a tough one for OHIO and a tough one for Virginia!
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Victory
3/17/2021 7:01 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I'm sure Virginia has a win or two when the shots weren't falling, which is what good teams do. However, if that many of your shots are from three, it's the lynchpin of your offense and it's going to be quite a bit more difficult to win if they're not falling.

I don't think I'm overhyping Virginia, but they're 11th in Kenpom, 12th in offensive efficiency, 33rd in defensive. The gap from Illinois to Virginia is quite a bit smaller than Virginia to Buffalo. It's March, they want to win, we want to win, and both teams have something to prove. We absolutely must show the same focus and poise we did in Cleveland. We need to come out expecting to win and ready to do the work.
Illinois is #4 in KenPom. Virginia ia #11. And you called up Buffalo, who is slightly behind Toledo, and slightly ahead of Ohio and several other MAC schools for comparison who is #68. So one gap is 7 spots and the other is 57 spots. But I don't think that looking at that is the relevant comparison. There is a funny thing about a normal (bell curve distribution) where most teams are near the level of play in the middle and very few in the skinny tail. There is 14 points between #1 and #11 and only about half a point between #161 and #171.

Illinois is 8 points better than Virginia. Virginia is 10 points better than Buffalo. But we played at Illinois and our game in the first round of the NCAA and the last round of the MAC is neutral. I hate to tell the guys who coached basketball for a living how much missing practice is going to hurt but I think a lot of them are blowing one week with one practice before gameday out of proportion. Still, I don't see how it can help. For this comparison, we need to add a point or two to the difficulty of playing at Illinois and subtract at least a point or two off of Virginia for COVID reasons. That means the difficulty here is somewhat closer to beating Buffalo that final time than to winning at Illinois even under the best case scenarios for Virginia in terms of who cannot play.
Another weird thing about Kenpom is that it usually shows about 70 points between the best team in D1 and the worst. Most analytics come up with a number somewhere in the 50's. I'm not sure why this happens or who is right but it would likely be a point or two less in both comparisons using a different system. If from what I have observed from betting lines I think that a number in the high 50's is more likely to be correct.
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JSF
3/17/2021 7:13 PM
I'm seeing the O/U at 131.
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spongeBOB CATpants
3/22/2021 9:43 AM
ReasFordHoo wrote:expand_more
"Virginia's greatest strength on offense is 3 point shooting, an off night would be catastrophic for their slow it down approach. UVA takes 42.3% percent of its shots from deep and hits 38.1% of them. They'll need to keep that pace in this game."

Completely disagree. Check out the last regular season game of the year versus Louisville. Virginia made 3 of 15 three pointers and won by 10 on the road. Hauser is extremely effective in the mid range game and Huff will get plenty of lobs around the basket.

Of course, it's much more likely to win if Virginia is shooting the ball well from deep, but with the defense and ability to run efficient offense, it's not necessary.
8 for 31
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JSF
3/22/2021 10:21 AM
JSF wrote:expand_more
I'm sure Virginia has a win or two when the shots weren't falling, which is what good teams do. However, if that many of your shots are from three, it's the lynchpin of your offense and it's going to be quite a bit more difficult to win if they're not falling.
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spongeBOB CATpants
3/22/2021 10:29 AM
JSF wrote:expand_more
I'm sure Virginia has a win or two when the shots weren't falling, which is what good teams do. However, if that many of your shots are from three, it's the lynchpin of your offense and it's going to be quite a bit more difficult to win if they're not falling.
The Athletic nailed this one, their analysis was pretty much spot on all the way down to the pick: Ohio wins.
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