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Topic: Official Game 1 Thread: Arkansas St.
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GoCats105
11/4/2025 1:26 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
In three contests, Hadaway is 6/12 from three. Sheldon is 7/22. If that trend continues, I am trusting replacing Sheldon with Breath in the starting lineup. Rebounding and defense would surely improve, Elliott would not be forced to guard the occasional 6'6"+ three man (though does he look taller than last year to anyone else?). What am I missing? This should be the move.
Someone in the postgame press conference asked Coach Boals about Sheldon's performance and his shooting. Boals' response referenced him shooting 48% from three in practice.

Cmon, man. You can't continue to rely on practice numbers when the game film shows a different story.
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100%Cat
11/4/2025 1:29 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
This won't be popular but if Boals doesn't figure things out this season, I think Ohio should consider moving on in the future.

He's been given ample time to rebuild things after the our NCAA Tournament guys moved on and things are going in the wrong direction.

We know we'll always be okay but he's lowering the ceiling of this program. I starting to lose faith in his vision for building this team and it's frustrating watching Akron, Kent State and Toledo consistently look better than us on a yearly basis.
I was thinking about this tonight towards the end of the game. New AD in town, obviously Boals wasn’t his hire. I like Boals but the results haven’t been all that different from Saul Phillips if we’re being honest.
My brother in Christ...

Saul was below .500 three of his five years. He had 14 wins or less 3 times.


Boals has one season of being .500 (16-16 last season).



Saul's best year was a trip to the CBI.

Boals has a MAC championship and an NCAA tournament victory.


And for the rest of this (from 2019-2024)...
Boals: 19 win avg, 1 NCAA Tournament win, 1 appearance, 1 MAC Championship
Tod K: 21.5 win avg, 0 NCAA Tournament wins, 0 appearances
Rob S: 21.5 win avg, 0 NCAA Tournament wins, 1 appearance, 1 MAC Championship
Groce: 22.8 win avg, 0 NCAA Tournament wins, 3 appearances, 3 MAC Championships
I said not all that different...not "the same." And as mentioned, Boals one great year with a tourney win was with Saul's guys, largely. Saul Phillips found Preston and BVP. Boals' best recruit has to be Mark Sears, but ultimately we couldn't get him to stay here. I don't fault Boals or his staff for that, some guys are just destined for bigger things. The number of recruiting whiffs under each of the last two coaches feels far too large.

Bottom line, in my exceptionally humble opinion, is that the general themes of "disappointing" and "not up to program expectations" have been a continued theme from BOTH Saul Phillips and Jeff Boals, minus one tourney run. And that tourney run feels like it happened 15 years ago right now. I'm not sure how much more mileage a person can get from that.
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GraffZ06
11/4/2025 2:16 PM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
In three contests, Hadaway is 6/12 from three. Sheldon is 7/22. If that trend continues, I am trusting replacing Sheldon with Breath in the starting lineup. Rebounding and defense would surely improve, Elliott would not be forced to guard the occasional 6'6"+ three man (though does he look taller than last year to anyone else?). What am I missing? This should be the move.
Someone in the postgame press conference asked Coach Boals about Sheldon's performance and his shooting. Boals' response referenced him shooting 48% from three in practice.

Cmon, man. You can't continue to rely on practice numbers when the game film shows a different story.
I watched on TV. At one point Marty made the comment "I asked Coach Boals who the best player on his roster was this summer and fall? His answer: Ajay Sheldon".

He's not going anywhere folks.
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GraffZ06
11/4/2025 2:19 PM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
I love Pavs but his inability to score at the rim costs us 8-10 points a game. He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
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GraffZ06
11/4/2025 2:28 PM
Rebounding.

We got out-rebounded 41-25 officially (original boxscore said 40-25). That's bad enough until you look into it deeper.

5 of our rebounds were "team/dead ball" rebounds. Only 2 of the sort for Ark St. So for actual, person grabbed a ball off the rim, rebounds....we were actually out-rebounded 39-20.

Ohio: 6 offensive, 14 defensive, 20 total.
ASU: 12 offensive, 27 defensive, 39 total.

Ohio offensive reb%: 6/33 = 18.2%
Ohio defensive reb%: 14/26 = 53.8%
ASU offensive reb%: 12/26 = 46.2% (they got back half their missed shots!)
ASU defensive reb%: 27/33 = 81.8%

That's like....the freshmen playing the varsity.
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berniebobcat
11/4/2025 2:31 PM
For what it’s worth, as a long time Bobcats fan, I remember weathering a number of disappointing loses even in what turned out to be memorable seasons. I would also observe that Boals coached teams, with the exception of last year, have gotten better as the season goes on. Therefore I am not ready to pass judgement on this team and its coach. What I do see is more players on this team with potential upside than last year. There’s more height and more depth all around. If we can avoid injuries and the usual improvement occurs, we may all get to celebrate by the end of the season.
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FJC31
11/4/2025 2:32 PM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
I love Pavs but his inability to score at the rim costs us 8-10 points a game. He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
Last Edited: 11/4/2025 2:47:56 PM by FJC31
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
11/4/2025 4:12 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
It came from the same place as Simmons being terribly overweight. And Evans being a stretch big.

It's pretty sad how many adult men interpret people disagreeing with their opinions -- with data no less -- as their "not being allowed" to say something.
Last Edited: 11/4/2025 4:32:44 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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GoCats105
11/4/2025 5:23 PM
berniebobcat wrote:expand_more
I would also observe that Boals coached teams, with the exception of last year, have gotten better as the season goes on.
I was curious about this and rather just assuming (A) The MAC has been anywhere from mediocre to terrible during this time and (B) Ohio is just a better program than 60% of the MAC, I think it goes way deeper than that and it's not trending in the right direction. All of the comments stating Boals won with Saul's players do have some viability on the optics, but statistically it really stands out specifically with Ben Vander Plas.

In three season with BVP in the lineup:
Non-conf (21-9)
MAC (64-42)
MAC Tournament (7-4)
Overall winning percentage .647

In three seasons without BVP in the lineup:
Non-conf (20-17)
MAC (33-21)
MAC Tournament (2-3)
Overall winning percentage .572

His MAC winning percentage hasn't really changed. And you could argue that the fewer number of non-conference games in 2020-21 skewed this a tad, but it's pretty clear the program is headed in a downward trajectory when facing peer like schools in the non-conf and also in conference (Akron, Kent, Toledo). I'm hoping this year's talent shows through. A win over a good Illinois State team would do wonders for the confidence of this squad.
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GraffZ06
11/5/2025 9:20 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
FG% doesn't tell the full story. Pavs drives and gets stuck frequently. He's smart enough not to force bad shots so his fg% might not be terrible but hes also not finishing at the rim either. He's tremendously crafty at finishing in the short 2 mid range game though. Its also statistically some of the worst possible shots you can take...but hes really good at it.
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GraffZ06
11/5/2025 9:33 AM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
It came from the same place as Simmons being terribly overweight. And Evans being a stretch big. [/quote]

Simmons DID look and play overweight in the scrimmages. Maybe he was wearing a hoodie under his jersey in Dayton. But I find it funny that just bc his ArkSt defender didnt remember/know he was left handed and gave up two left handed drives that resulted in 2 MISSED dunks that we're now firmly all in on him being fine.


And Evans IS a stretch big for all intents and purposes. Hes way more comfortable taking 3s and outside jumpers than banging for position and using drop steps on the low block.

[QUOTE=Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame]
It's pretty sad how many adult men interpret people disagreeing with their opinions -- with data no less -- as their "not being allowed" to say something.
I've provided statistical analysis on this board for years. I love data. Sometimes it can be noisy. Sometimes it can be nuanced. Sometimes it reveals things you didnt notice/missed/didnt believe.

The rest of that post sounds like petty political garbage.
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spongeBOB CATpants
11/5/2025 9:43 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
I love Pavs but his inability to score at the rim costs us 8-10 points a game. He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
That's good data, thanks for looking into it. I'm not pointing out his % though because when he doesn't even get a shot off, that counts as nothing.
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FJC31
11/5/2025 9:56 AM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
I love Pavs but his inability to score at the rim costs us 8-10 points a game. He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
That's good data, thanks for looking into it. I'm not pointing out his % though because when he doesn't even get a shot off, that counts as nothing.
I'm confused, didn't you call out his inability to score at the rim?
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FJC31
11/5/2025 10:11 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
FG% doesn't tell the full story. Pavs drives and gets stuck frequently. He's smart enough not to force bad shots so his fg% might not be terrible but hes also not finishing at the rim either. He's tremendously crafty at finishing in the short 2 mid range game though. Its also statistically some of the worst possible shots you can take...but hes really good at it.
What story does At Rim FG% tell if it doesn't depict a players ability to finish at the rim? His paint pts / 40 minutes is 9.3 -- in the 94th percentile and his % of points in the paint is 54% -- 87th percentile. I'm not sure how he's not finishing at the rim when numbers show he does so efficiently.

Pavs 27% assist percentage is considered above average to go with a slightly above average turnover % of 18%. He's not without his faults, but this still feels like the same narrative you were driving last year about him being much worse than he actually is.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
11/5/2025 11:21 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
Simmons DID look and play overweight in the scrimmages. Maybe he was wearing a hoodie under his jersey in Dayton. But I find it funny that just bc his ArkSt defender didnt remember/know he was left handed and gave up two left handed drives that resulted in 2 MISSED dunks that we're now firmly all in on him being fine.

And Evans IS a stretch big for all intents and purposes. Hes way more comfortable taking 3s and outside jumpers than banging for position and using drop steps on the low block.

It's pretty sad how many adult men interpret people disagreeing with their opinions -- with data no less -- as their "not being allowed" to say something.
I've provided statistical analysis on this board for years. I love data. Sometimes it can be noisy. Sometimes it can be nuanced. Sometimes it reveals things you didnt notice/missed/didnt believe.

The rest of that post sounds like petty political garbage.
Just to be more direct: you just haven't demonstrated yourself to be a particularly good basketball scout.

Ayden Evans is not a stretch big and has no shooting touch. Find me any highlight videos where he's demonstrated shooting range. He's shooting an amazing 0% from three and 45% from the line. You want Ayden Evans to be a whole lot of things he just isn't, and you've constructed a view of what he can be based on basically nothing.
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spongeBOB CATpants
11/5/2025 11:45 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
I love Pavs but his inability to score at the rim costs us 8-10 points a game. He's very good at getting past his defender only to get stuck under the hoop with no hope of even going up with it. It happened last year often and happened several times last night.
You're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud about Pavs.

Add in that he's not a 3pt threat, and (though not his fault) is stuck playing with 2 other undersized guards - he's just too small.

But be careful or the board police will lump you in with me as a Pavs hater (which I'm not).
Guys, I hate to break it to you (this isn't me policing, but just pulling numbers); but, on the season last year Pavs At Rim FG% was 67% overall and 71% at home. His Paint 2P FG% was 48% -- 56% at home.

Average at the rim for CBB is around 53%. Bigs typically over 60% are considered good and guards over 45% are considered good.

I'm not sure where his inability to score at the rim narrative comes from. I'll add I'd like to see him drive and dish more with the three bigs this season.
That's good data, thanks for looking into it. I'm not pointing out his % though because when he doesn't even get a shot off, that counts as nothing.
I'm confused, didn't you call out his inability to score at the rim?
Do you watch the games? Dig me up a stat that tells us how many times he beats his man off the dribble, gets under the hoop, and can't get a shot off. If there is a stat for that, apologies for missing it. I was never claiming that he doesn't shoot a good % in the paint or at the rim. My wording should have been that he struggles to get shots off at the rim.

I'm not trying to bash the kid, I've already stated and stated in the past that I love his game and he has some great talent as a ball handler. I'm just saying there are some points left on the board that would be nice to have.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
11/5/2025 12:02 PM
Here's Pavs' shot chart from last year: https://www.filepicker.io/api/file/eNe5NGGNRiaw14Vi23Kf

Is he elite at the rim or finishing in the paint? Nope. Is he small and do small players tend to be worse at the rim? Yep.

Is there anything in that shot chart that suggests he's actively bad finishing at the rim? I struggle to see it. Does that shot chart support Graf's continued insistence that Pavs takes a lot of mid-range, inefficient shots? I also struggle to see it.

Oh, and here's Elijah Elliot's shot chart from last year: https://www.filepicker.io/api/file/VNktoEZBQweZUjC3YMuC

Last year Graf was very insistent on benching Pavs for Elliot specifically because of his ability to finish at the rim. I think Elliot undoubtedly has the raw tools to be better at the rim than Pavs. But he plays out of control a ton, and he hasn't actually shown it yet.
Last Edited: 11/5/2025 12:04:23 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
11/5/2025 12:16 PM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
Do you watch the games? Dig me up a stat that tells us how many times he beats his man off the dribble, gets under the hoop, and can't get a shot off. If there is a stat for that, apologies for missing it.
There's not a stat for that specifically, but there are a lot of stats that are designed to tell you how efficient a player is with the possessions they use. Pavs is pretty strong there, largely because of his finishing around the basket and ability to get to the line.

There's certainly nobody else on the roster that's number suggest they should be using those possessions instead, at least at a high volume.

Pavs isn't a perfect player. I think he's a solid, but unspectacular MAC point guard. But his shortcomings get nitpicked around here largely because he ends up asked to do way more than he should. To me, the real blame for that falls on Boals' recruiting, not because Pavs isn't elite in all facets of the game.
Last Edited: 11/5/2025 12:16:36 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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spongeBOB CATpants
11/5/2025 1:14 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
Do you watch the games? Dig me up a stat that tells us how many times he beats his man off the dribble, gets under the hoop, and can't get a shot off. If there is a stat for that, apologies for missing it.
There's not a stat for that specifically, but there are a lot of stats that are designed to tell you how efficient a player is with the possessions they use. Pavs is pretty strong there, largely because of his finishing around the basket and ability to get to the line.

There's certainly nobody else on the roster that's number suggest they should be using those possessions instead, at least at a high volume.

Pavs isn't a perfect player. I think he's a solid, but unspectacular MAC point guard. But his shortcomings get nitpicked around here largely because he ends up asked to do way more than he should. To me, the real blame for that falls on Boals' recruiting, not because Pavs isn't elite in all facets of the game.
I totally agree with your points, Pavs is good and I've defended him before on here. I fully admit to nitpicking but I guess my point was that he could really elevate himself and our offense if he was able to finish some of these great plays he makes off the dribble. It would also help if he had some knockdown shooters when he does drive and dish because I understand we can't expect him to finish every drive to the hoop, that's unrealistic at this level.
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