Torvik has us as .6 pt favorites. Does Vegas work with tenths? Torvik also has us ranked 18 or so in the "FUN" category, (I've mentioned it in previous posts) which means that we fare well in close games. We will see if that holds up. Having Miles back should mean that Mark will have a pinch more rest (Tommy playing more backup PG) which should help at the end of the game.
Go Bobcats! Meat Biami! Or something like that...
Yeah, so 5 from Sagarin is about right. Home field in college basketball is still around 3. So if we are 5 on a neutral court that is 2 on the road and 8 at home.
I have us at 72-71. Massey says 72-70. ESPN BPI actually says 51% for a Miami win. Vegas Over/Under is 143.5 so the implied Vegas score is 72.25-71.25. That should be more accurate of the very long run than any unbiased computer system. Vegas knows the computer predictions and if any system prived better than the line the line would just move closer to that system.
I have Ohio at about 5 or 6 points better than the average D1 team. OUr record 13-2 against our schedule would best imply a team that is more like 12 points above average. That difference is one of the very highest in the whole country. KenPom calls that luck in is ratings page. I have us even higher there than a Torvik or Pomeroy. In the end we probably have not played as well as our record indicates. We are going to have to avoid all these bad shooting games to keep winning games like this one every time.