Agree with all that.
So, would we prefer to get hot and win in Cleveland this year. Go to NCAA back to back. Lose in 1st round (likely) and see Boals get hired away after year 3 - possibly taking some recruits with him or decommitting like happened with Groce.
Or would we rather fall in Cleveland. Head to CBI or call it a season but retain Boals. Get another year of BVP (maybe) along with return of DW3 and excellent recruiting class. Possibly make a sweet 16 type run where you lose Boals after year 4 but get the experience and exposure of that type tourney run and MAYBE since recruits are already here you retain some/all even after Boals leaves and MAYBE you've laid enough foundation in 4 years and 2 tourney runs to try and keep the recruiting momentum going with next coach?
To me, that's a lot of maybe's but I still like the sound of option 2 if I'm honest.
Take tournament trips and wins whenever you can get them. In the second scenario you outline, there's no guarantee we're even the best team in the MAC, let alone a Sweet 16 team. Since 1990, we basically go to the tournament once every 6 years on average. I think any attempt to try and get cute about these things with an eye towards retaining a coach longer puts the cart before the horse.
Bottom line is that if we win a tournament game this year and Boals gets poached, that's still a pretty damn good outcome for the program. To be able to go out on the market and say that of our last 4 coaches, 3 have ended up at Illinois, Boston College, and [Enter Boals P5 school] makes clear the quality of the job here and should put us in a strong place to make a good hire who can maintain any momentum.