Go UT!

I want UT to win to set up better matchup on Tuesday. But BSU off to a great start. Nine of 13 from 3 in first 11 minutes, up 18.

Toledo was down 20 at one point but has tied it at 56 with 15 minutes left.

It’s going to be Ball State. We still need a victory next Tuesday to seal the deal.

This hurts our at-large chances, such as they are, and means that if we finish that road trip next week without another loss then we MIGHT still not get any votes in the polls. However, I still think it is likely that we would. Toledo has points in both polls now.

On the other hand, we can start putting a stranglehold on the MAC if we do beat Toledo and have a realistic chance even if we lose. We especially would have a chance to tie. That tie wouldn't come with a sure NIT bid at that point but it is a conference title. I think a MAC cochampionship and only 5 or 6 losses probably gets us in the NIT anyway. But the MAC is weak this year so who knows.

Maybe we should be thinking bigger. Win out and take the tournament and we could conceivably get a decent seed in the NCAA tournament.

Right after OUr focus on the Broncos is complete...

If Ohio takes a “one game at a time approach as I suspect,” this counts as good news.

Toledo was going to be motivated on Tuesday regardless of their outcome tonight. I don’t buy into the extra motivation. They’ll be mad but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll play better. Sometimes the opposite happens in sports. The better team will win when the Bobcats and Rockets take the court. It certainly won’t be an easy game.

As far as their at-large chances, those went out the window after losing to LSU and Kentucky. All Ball State’s win did today was improve Ohio’s chances of winning the MAC regular season title and securing an automatic NIT bid which is a good thing.

I think the Bobcats are in a good position for the NIT regardless of if they secure auto bid or not but it doesn’t hurt to take care of business. Obviously, top focus is winning in Cleveland and making it back to the NCAA Tournament.

Look, I totally believe that the deck is intentionally stacked against non-power 5 schools for at-large bids. It wasn't quite so bad back in the 90s. Now, it is so much about quality wins than strength of record (which should, IMO, be the main qualifier) or who we think would win most of the time if they played. If a team gets the nod because they have 2 Q1 wins in 12 tries over a team that has 1 in 2 tries then, yes, mid-majors are screwed. It isn't QUITE that bad but it is incredibly stacked against us for the last 16 years or so.

Having said that your statement is a total exaggeration of the realistically dim state of affairs by people who want to moan and make it sound even worse than it is. Going 31-3 with road losses to two national powers and wins over Belmont and Toledo twice with a loss to Toledo in the final would have gotten us an at-large with close to 100% certainty. Will 30-4 do it? I don't know but it is a very realistic possibility. We would at the very least be among the last teams they were discussing. 29-5? I'm guessing as bad as the MAC is and with no OOC Q1 wins and the deck stacked like that that it is unlikely. It depends on how the bubble looks, how Belmont does, and who is on the committee and such to know if we might have a chance at all.

MTSU did get in with 5 losses in 2013 with some losses much worse teams than we have so far while playing in a Sunbelt league with a much worse reputation than the MAC. A great record and wins over teams the caliber of Belmont and Toledo did it for them.

Ohio's own women's team had 5 losses and a very weak OOC schedule was likely the last team out in 2019. But that was an up MAC. This men's team is in a down one. But the gap between the P5 and everyone else is much bigger in women's hoops so it still might be an apt comparison.

The thing that has me down about OUr chances is not just a failure to beat LSU or UK or the MAC being down is also that we have let too many bad teams finish with the score too close. It is hurting OUr .NET and makes me also question how good we are. I texted my brother when we had a lead in the high 20s with about 15 minutes left against EMU that they would score a couple of buckets in the last minute and we would win by 7. How many times has something like that happened?

UT thin bench will get a boost (how much TBD) when 6-10 AJ Edu returns later this month. Showed a lot of promise as a 2018-19 frosh, playing in 33 games. Bad knees, however, has limited him to 2 total games over the last 3 seasons.

It feels like you're drawing a distinction between a 98% likelihood and a 99% likelihood and then ridiculing people for being overly negative. You're also assuming that the committee thinks Toledo is good, and that two wins over them would have guaranteed an at large. The reality is that Toledo's best win is over us. You remove that, assume another loss in game two, and they are 18-7, with losses to Oakland, Richmond, Ohio (x2), Michigan State, Kent State, and Ball State. And who is their best win? Bradley?

You're vastly overstating the impact two wins (and a MACC loss) to Toledo would have.

Poor wording on my part. I understood what you meant. My feeling is that both teams will have the proper focus and mindset regardless of what happened going in. Toledo game will be for the MAC regular season title. I’d hope neither team would let a previous result impact them in a game of this magnitude.

Speaking of "quad wins" and whatever... Belmont is trailing @ 5-17 Tennessee Tech by 15 at halftime. If that holds up, the "value" of a win over Belmont will grow weaker. Now, there is still time for Belmont to pull it out but OVC refs might not feel as obligated to assist with that since Belmont is bolting for the MVC.