For all the consternation this board has had about Sears getting shut down on his drives recently, he's actually picked up his assist totals the last few games, is rebounding out of his mind, is still hitting FTs and is hitting the occasional 3 to continue scoring. BRod is what it is. He still can't hit water in the ocean, but that's been true all year and we were winning despite him earlier. BVP is BVP. Always reliable, always solid, brings something (even if not always from 3) every night.
The biggest drop-off in production, that has directly correlated to our most recent slide is actually Jason Carter.
It started with the second Toledo game - spanning our last 9 games, over which we're 4-5. One of those games (Miami) JC missed, so in his last 8 games we're only 3-5. Prior to that we were 19-3. Comparing JC's first 22 games to his last 8:
Min/Gm: First 22 (31.4) / Last 8 (24.5)
Pts/Gm: First 22 (15.3) / Last 8 (9.0)
Reb/Gm: First 22 (7.1) / Last 8 (4.0)
FG/Gm: First 22 (6.3 for 13.1 - 47.8%) / Last 8 (3.6 for 9.0 - 40.3%)
This team only has 3 impact players. Minus the random Miles Brown double-double, Tiny Tommy 3ball going off, BRod actually making shots, or a herculean 30 pt effort from Sears or triple double from BVP (things we can't rely on) - this team can't win without all 3 of the big 3 clicking, and in fact struggles mightily on the offensive end when they don't (see last two games). We're just not good enough or deep enough otherwise unfortunately.
It provides so much more balance to our offense too, because you get Sears slashing and getting to the line, BVP hitting 3s and extending the D, but then you need that 3rd piece of Carter doing work from the interior.
So I revise my previous statement that this team will only go so far as Sears and BRod will take them in Cleveland (though we def need SOMEBODY on a game by game basis to step up and knock down 3s) - to now saying, this team will only beat Ball State and make a run based on how well Jason Carter plays.
Do we get December Jason or February Jason?
Interesting thing about the Carter analysis:
It seems like the biggest drops are in minutes and field goal attempts. His shooting from the field it's better in February (including a huge improvement from 3), though he's struggling at the line.
I wonder if the decline in minutes just points to fatigue issues. He's guarding out of position a ton and it wouldn't surprise me if his legs are just dead.
I thought something similar. I wondered if his stats scaled linearly downward in correlation with his decreased minutes, but they actually don't. Not only is his FG% down but his utilization (attempts per minute) are down as well.
Gives some credence to the analysis in another thread comparing team stats in wins and losses that says we take more 3s and shoot worse (not shocking) in losses. Basically if Carter isn't being utilized and making shots inside, we're totally reliant on Sears driving or jacking 3s.
We need balance. Yes part of that balance is somebody hitting 3s, but it could be BRod or BVP or Tommy or heck even Miles or Sears. We need Sears still being aggressive and either finishing, getting to the line or (hopefully) dishing to the open man. But that third aspect is our interior offense and with BVP playing stretch 4 and living around the arc most of the time that falls squarely on Carter.
It also makes me wonder if for some reason Carter isn't bringing it in Cleveland (fatigue, injured or just off) that we either need to see some minutes in the post for Ezuma (possible but not ideal) or better yet, move BVP back inside to the 5 and let him be the interior scorer we need and move someone like Clayton to the stretch 4 position.