At 9-9, Ohio is in 8th place, just ahead of 9-10 Kent State, who lost tonight. The Bobcats must win at Kent State on Saturday to make the tournament. There is no longer a chance of making it if they lose.
I think I'll have to hedge on that statement, based on what I'm reading on other boards about a pandemic seeding tiebreaker that the MAC may have adopted. I haven't been able to find anything official put out by the MAC, so the following information is from "BullBoy", posting on the CSNMACbbs. Essentially, he says that rather than using winning percentage as a means of ranking teams that have played an unequal number of games, the MAC has redefined what a "tie" is. Teams will now be considered tied if they are within a half-game of each other. As he puts it, teams will be considered "tied with anyone they are either tied in the loss column with and within one in the win column or anyone they are tied within the win column, and within one loss."
If that is a correct statement of the new rule, and if it applies to women's basketball as well as men's, about which BullBoy was posting, it might affect Ohio and Kent State. If Ohio wins, they would be 10-9, and Kent State would be 9-11. Since the two teams would not be tied in either the win or the loss column, the rule would not apply, and Ohio would make the tournament as at least the 8th seed (possibly higher depending on other results Saturday).
But if Ohio loses, Kent State would be 10-10, and Ohio 9-10. That looks like Kent State would be in with a better winning percentage, and Ohio out. But the pandemic rule treats the two teams as if they were tied, and tiebreakers go into effect. If the tie were only between the two teams, Ohio would get in, because the two teams split head-to-head but Ohio has the "best" win with a victory over #1 Toledo.
However, there will be more than one team with a 10-10 record after Saturday, since four teams already have 10 wins and two of them (Ball State and NIU) play each other. So if Kent State wins on Saturday, they would be tied on actual record with at least one, and possibly as many as three, teams, as well as being "tied" with Ohio due to the pandemic rule. Multi-team tiebreakers would then go into effect. I haven't tried to break that tie due to the many possibilities, but it's worth noting that Ohio is 0-2 against both NIU and WMU, and 2-0 against BGSU.