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Topic: Non-conference schedule (Commence BLOVE rage)
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Flomo-genized
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Posted: 8/4/2010 10:17 AM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Someone said home teams win 67% of the time. So, if you have to play on the road why not play a higher llevel of competition? You migh get your a#@ handed to you for a few years, but when you recruit, you can show players that they will be playing against the best and that's exciting. One year I played at Ohio State in front of a full house and the next week at St Bonaventure in front of 1000. What is more appealing to a recruit? Especially if your goal is to elevate the program. IMO, we have enough winnable games in the conference and enough crummy places to play with no crowd support. Look at attendance in the MAC-it's pathetic.


Your premise is faulty for a number of reasons.  Most glaringly, we don't "have to play on the road."  This year we have 10 home games, 3 road games (including the Bracketbuster in Feb.) and 2 neutral court games.

More significantly, the 67% figure accounts for all of Division I basketball.  At the upper levels, the home court winning percentage is significantly higher, in the 80-90% range for many traditional powers.  Yes you can sometimes win one of those games, but you will end up losing far more frequently than you win.  And again, if those losses were anywhere near as beneficial as you seem to think, then Miami should be a regular NCAA participant, rather than a .500 program over the last 5-6 years.  Nor has playing a murderous, road heavy schedule enabled Miami to attract better recruits. 

You build a winning program by putting your team in the best position to win.  Playing too many good teams does not advance a program, but stagnates it.  I'd challenge you to provide some examples of teams at our level that have used the scheduling strategy that you advocate to develop themselves into perpetually strong programs.  It simply doesn't happen.  Gonzaga has played some strong teams, but generally tries to schedule them at home or on neutral courts.  It doesn't go on the road to play 4 or 5 power teams every year.  Same with Xavier, Butler, and most of the recently strong MVC squads.  The type of schedule you want to see would set our program back at this stage, which is the last thing anyone should want to see.
Last Edited: 8/4/2010 10:22:30 AM by Flomo-genized
Ohio69
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Posted: 8/4/2010 4:26 PM
Bobcat Love wrote:expand_more
Either you want  to be big time or you want to be little flounders. Which is it?



Ohio University is not interested in big time athletics.  Get used to it.
giacomo
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Posted: 8/4/2010 4:59 PM
That might be true. I'm not advocating playing some killer schedule, but we  should be playing at least 4 teams above our head. With an 18 game MAC schedule and 10 non-conference games, that leaves plenty of games against our peers. Playing one game against Kansas doesn't help you. You might learn something playing Kansas that will help you play against Purdue or Virginia. It's a process. Everyone keeps bringing up Miami. Maybe they aren't that good to begin with. They play a tough non-con schedule then go sub 500 in the MAC.
Ohio Hoops
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Posted: 8/4/2010 6:08 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Everyone keeps bringing up Miami. Maybe they aren't that good to begin with. They play a tough non-con schedule then go sub 500 in the MAC.


Miami goes sub 500 in the MAC because they exert all their energy on their overbearing schedule. I think your OOC schedule is a very minimal part of what a recruit thinks when they come to a school. They want the chance to win a lot of games, most importantly in March, and they want the chance to succeed the most at their chosen school.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 8/4/2010 7:04 PM
Gotta think that 'cruits love seeing bigtime names on the schedule.  All else being equal, that could tip the scales when it comes to signing time.

There's no right answer here.  It's a balancing act of playing the toughtst/most attractive schedule without killing your team and your record.

The good news is that we appear to be a legit team ourselves.  Talented enough--and, hopefully, tough enough--to start upscheduling .
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 8/4/2010 9:43 PM
Ohio Hoops wrote:expand_more
Miami goes sub 500 in the MAC because they exert all their energy on their overbearing schedule. . . 


Prove it!  This is an oft-repeated charge, but it's one that no one can prove.  In point of fact, Ohio's best teams played a murderous non-conference schedule.  Go look at the schedules back in the late '60s and early '70s.  In one of those years, you'll see that we beat FOUR Big Ten teams before we got to the MAC schedule.  We also played a couple of Big Ten teams in the Convo in those years.  One of these (Purdue) was nationally ranked at the time with a marquee player by the name of Rick Mount.  Better competition helps raise your game, and it also helps recruiting.  Oxford Tech is bad just because they're located in the vortex of the black hole of the Buckeye State.  No in depth analysis is required.

Edit: Also, what Monroe said.
Last Edited: 8/4/2010 9:45:32 PM by OhioCatFan
perimeterpost
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Posted: 8/4/2010 9:58 PM
timing is everything, next year we have 10 scholarship players that are freshmen or sophmores (or redshirts). we had a lot of consistancy issues last year but a stong finish so this schedule is good for next year because it helps us continue to build while also having opportunities to get our new guys some playing time. Assuming we continue to progress then the 2011 schedule should be a little tougher, and if all things go well the 2012 schedule should be when we go as tough as possible because we'll have 10 upperclassmen on the team that could potentially  be one of the best teams we've seen in a very long time.

our scheduling strategy should be done within context of the team we have, not the team we wish we had. it doesn't always make since to line up the toughest games every single year, ala Miami.
Casper71
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Posted: 8/4/2010 11:34 PM

I agree with OCF.  The 60s and 70s the bobcats played some good teams at home.  I think it is just a scheduling philosophy.  If we wanted to get some better regional teams in the Convo, I think we could.  I'd also love to hear the Athletic Administration say they try to get those good regional teams but nobody will play us at home.  I tend to think we don't try to get anybody to play us at home anymore.

Ohio Hoops
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Posted: 8/5/2010 9:17 AM
I really don't think schedules have anything to do with recruiting these days. First of all since schedules are largely made at the end of the current season when a recruit signs they have almost no idea what kind of OOC schedule they'll go against while at their school. Maybe that's what recruits cared about in 60s and 70s but here in the present that's not really at the forefront of their minds.
giacomo
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Posted: 8/5/2010 11:29 AM
Hoops, how can you say that? Recruits get pressbooks and they can see what kind of schedule we play. The coaches also say something about it in their recruiting spiel. You don't think they say "we're playing Kansas in Vegas this year"? I guess if we play a sad sack schedule they won't say " we're going to Wofford".

It's also complete balderdash to think that Miami burns their energy before the MAC schedule and that's why they go sub 500. Does anyone really think the MAC schedule is that grueling? A solid team should be able to go 12-6 or 11-7 in the MAC.
Ohio Hoops
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Posted: 8/5/2010 12:32 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Hoops, how can you say that? Recruits get pressbooks and they can see what kind of schedule we play. The coaches also say something about it in their recruiting spiel. You don't think they say "we're playing Kansas in Vegas this year"? I guess if we play a sad sack schedule they won't say " we're going to Wofford".

It's also complete balderdash to think that Miami burns their energy before the MAC schedule and that's why they go sub 500. Does anyone really think the MAC schedule is that grueling? A solid team should be able to go 12-6 or 11-7 in the MAC.


You can look at past schedules and see who we have played and that can give you a vague idea of the type of schedule we play but there's no guarantees made beyond maybe a coach saying we'll try and get you an away game near your hometown sometime in the next four years. Most of the kids are going to sign in the early signing period and in that time there's maybe four or five games that you know about for the next season. Beyond that you really have no idea how your OOC schedule is going to look. Every school ends up going on some type of fun trip once every four years (i.e. Vegas, Hawaii, etc.) so go ahead and throw that out the window as being any type of recruiting "advantage". I just think in this day and age recruits are way, way more interested in what the schedule looks like March (NCAA tournament) then where they're going to have to play somewhat meaningless games in November and December.

The MAC schedule is tougher than you may think. There's a reason home teams have such a high winning % in the MAC lately. It's much wiser to be well rested and clicking come January then trying to play catch up with rest once you hit conference play. I'm not saying it's the end all be all reason for their struggles in the conference lately but I know for a fact that we ran their scrubs into the ground in Cleveland and that's because we didn't strain ourselves for no reason in November in December and saved our best for that time period when it mattered the most.
giacomo
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Posted: 8/5/2010 5:01 PM
You make some good points about the schedule, and you're right, basketball doesn't schedule that far in advance as football. It's the idea that we're playing a strong schedule consistantly, which I believe helps the program long term. Apparantly, you don't.

But I take issue with your assessment that we "rested during meaningless Nov and Dec games" to gear up for the NCAA run. Really? We're not the Celtics trying to pace our veterans for the championship run. I don't think Coach Groce thinks those games are meaningless, nor do the kids. It just happened to work out that way, probably with more luck than strategy.

Let's look at the Sagarins:

79  Kent State              =  78.99   23  10   73.88( 127)    0   1  |    0   2  |   79.92   70 |   77.85   92
  98  Ohio University         =  77.00   21  15   73.04( 149)    1   1  |    1   2  |   76.47  109 |   77.26   95
110  Akron                   =  76.03   23  11   71.58( 182)    0   1  |    0   2  |   76.85  102 |   74.96  122
143  Western Michigan        =  73.70   17  15   72.31( 161)    0   1  |    0   1  |   73.56  147 |   73.55  137
145  Miami-Ohio              =  73.63   14  18   75.07(  99)    0   4  |    0   5  |   73.61  146 |   73.36  141
154  Buffalo                 =  73.25   17  12   71.76( 175)    0   1  |    0   1  |   74.58  129 |   71.67  167
188  Central Michigan        =  70.57   14  15   70.88( 200)    0   1  |    0   1  |   70.67  186 |   70.20  190
190  Eastern Michigan        =  70.40   15  15   70.18( 222)    0   1  |    0   1  |   70.45  194 |   70.07  193
192  Bowling Green           =  70.32   13  16   73.03( 150)    0   2  |    0   2  |   71.80  171 |   68.52  213
209  Ball State              =  69.01   14  15   70.67( 209)    0   4  |    0   4  |   70.46  193 |   67.21  224
245  Northern Illinois       =  65.97   10  20   71.30( 190)    0   2  |    0   3  |   65.87  245 |   65.79  241
318  Toledo                  =  59.28    3  28   73.10( 148)    0   1  |    0   2  |   59.67  313 |   58.59  316
_________________________________________________________________________________

Do you mean to tell me that a good, solid team shouldn't go at least 12-6 or 11-7 in this league? I'm talking about a team that can play with anyone.


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Ohio Hoops
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Posted: 8/6/2010 9:26 AM
Of course they are not completely meaningless but as of now we are still building the program into being a consistent winner who is making a serious case for an at large bid everywhere. We're not there yet. So at the end of the day our OOC games largely don't mean much because they aren't helping us get a top seed in the conference. Now on the other end they are meaningful we do win the conference because that determines what seed we get in the tournament. However I disagree that a schedule is how you build a program. You build a program through recruiting, winning, then scheduling. If you don't have the recruits and you aren't winning (coughcoughMIAMIcoughcough) then what is the point of playing a murder's row? That hurts your program more than it helps it. Fair or not, Miami has a stigma lately that they over schedule themselves and until they make a serious run in February/March that isn't going to change.
bn9
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Posted: 8/6/2010 10:04 AM
Here is my question.  If we go 11-4 in non conference (losses to Kansas, Temple and two others) and go 12-4 in conference, is the rest of the schedule good enough to get us an at-large bid at 23-8?   
giacomo
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Posted: 8/6/2010 12:06 PM
I doubt it. But it would depend on our opponents final rating. The MAC has been weak, so until that changes, probably not. Remember the year we won the pre-season NIT with Trent? We got shut out that year with 23 wins (somebody verify the win count that year)
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 8/6/2010 4:51 PM
Would the peoples be happy with a 23-8 regular season?
Big Willy
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Posted: 8/6/2010 8:04 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
I doubt it. But it would depend on our opponents final rating. The MAC has been weak, so until that changes, probably not. Remember the year we won the pre-season NIT with Trent? We got shut out that year with 23 wins (somebody verify the win count that year)


That still ticks me off, but that was 15 years ago, so it has nothing to do with what it would take to get an at-large bid now. We were 23-9, but finished poorly after Boles got hurt. Ball State won the MAC Tourney and Miami, the regular season champ, got an at-large bid. I still believe they simply wouldn't take a third team from the MAC. If Miami had won the MAC Tourney, I think we would have received an at-large bid.
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