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Topic: Miami @ EMU finish
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shabamon
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Posted: 2/6/2011 11:51 AM
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Hopefully somewhere I can find video of this wild finish to the Miami - EMU game from yesterday. Check out this sequence:

Its 55-46, EMU. John Harris hits a 3 with 1:33 left so its now 55-49.
Orlando Williams steals, John Harris hits a 3 with 1:14 left. 55-52.
EMU makes 1 FT. 56-52.
Allen Roberts drives and gets and one. 56-55 0:55 left.
EMU misses a shot, John Harris hits a 3. 56-58 1.2 seconds left.
EMU hits a buzzer beater but it is reversed because the official clock shows 0.0 when he released, despite the TV feed showing 0.1 when he released.

The score at halftime was EMU 30, Miami 15. That's conference play in the MAC for ya.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/6/2011 4:15 PM
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Apparently redhawk is familiar with a concept known as "defense."
OUVan
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Posted: 2/6/2011 4:42 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Apparently redhawk is familiar with a concept known as "defense."



Just like us they are 10th or worse in points/game allowed, FG% defense and 3pt % defense.  Not your typical Charlie team.
JSF
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Posted: 2/6/2011 6:09 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Apparently redhawk is familiar with a concept known as "defense."


Apparently you haven't been reading me this year, as I've been killing Miami for their terrible defense all season.

304th in defensive efficiency.  10th in MAC-only games.
(All stats MAC-only below)
10th in opponent field goal percentage
9th in opponent 2FG%
10th in opponent 3FG%
11 in opponent turnover rate

http://www.bbstate.com/teamstats/MIO
tiptondevilcat
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Posted: 2/6/2011 10:03 PM
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Although I do not generally rely on. or put much stock in stats I at least try to look at them prior to commenting. I am not sure it is the bobcatattack modus operandi to actually be armed with any facts to actually throw out a comment that is as likely as not to be mistaken for an informed opinion. Mr Slavin seems to randomly add comments without any background. I admit I have not read you but I might start.

Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/7/2011 3:03 AM
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Whatever. 

Tell me about the number of games this year which we've won by 2nd half defense.  Then tell me about the number of games this year we've lost because of 2nd half defense.  Was it Buffalo at home that we were up 15 or 18 on a few minutes into the second and lost going away.  Think that'd happen to a team of Charlies?

Stats are lovely.  Sometimes, though, your eyes tell you the truth that stats belie.
OUVan
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Posted: 2/7/2011 10:23 AM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Whatever. 

Tell me about the number of games this year which we've won by 2nd half defense.  Then tell me about the number of games this year we've lost because of 2nd half defense.  Was it Buffalo at home that we were up 15 or 18 on a few minutes into the second and lost going away.  Think that'd happen to a team of Charlies?

Stats are lovely.  Sometimes, though, your eyes tell you the truth that stats belie.


Yeah, because that would never happen to a Charlie Coles coached team.  That 18 point lead against Western about 10 days ago must have been an illusion.

And, ummmm, what does our propensity for second half collapses have to do with Fiami's defensive ability?  As far as I can tell nobody is claiming we are a good defensive team.  We aren't and if we want to have any chance to redeem this season we have to get better at it. But that doesn't mean that the Salmonchickens are a good defensive team no matter what Coles' history is.
Last Edited: 2/7/2011 10:25:08 AM by OUVan
Ohio Hoops
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Posted: 2/7/2011 11:12 AM
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 Here's video of the shot to win it for Miami. What you see can sometimes tell the difference between two teams with similar stats but when Dragon points out numbers as obvious as they are you just look foolish for trying to argue otherwise.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/7/2011 6:13 PM
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Is this a statistic (from the website which Dragon pointed to):  points given up per game this year Miami 69.5, Ohio 74.1?

If it is, if we'd've given up 4.6 less ppg (that is, if we were at redhawk's stat), what would our record be?




4.6 is a HUGE difference...and also the difference between the 10th best in MAC (redhawk) and the 11th (us).
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 2/7/2011 6:31 PM
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Monroe, don't you have to account for the pace of the game to evaluate how good a defense is?  Ohio causes more possessions per game than Miami.  If I'm wrong on this, I'm sure the Dragon can get me the right numbers. 
There are several stats that are more meaningful in evaluating how good a defense is than PPG.  One of them is FG%.  There are others.   

Having pointed that out, I'm not contradicting your basic point that Ohio has to play better defense.  I don't think anyone is denying that.   
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 2/7/2011 7:06 PM
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Shouldn't SOS also be taken into account. Miami's always-tough non-league schedule, I would think, would mean a higher ppg allowed, no?
JSF
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Posted: 2/7/2011 7:46 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Is this a statistic (from the website which Dragon pointed to):  points given up per game this year Miami 69.5, Ohio 74.1?

If it is, if we'd've given up 4.6 less ppg (that is, if we were at redhawk's stat), what would our record be?


Points per game is just about the worst stat you can employ in evaluating the quality of a defense.  Miami's PPG allowed is a product of their pace, not a product of being good at defense.

On the year, Ohio has a pace of 70.4, Miami 65.0.  If you take the difference in pace (5.4) and multiply it by the number of points Miami gives up on a defensive possession (1.064), you get 5.74.  Add that to Miami's 69.5, and at 70.4 possessions a game, the RedHawks would be allowing 75.2 points per game.  This is assuming Miami and their opponents have an equal number of possessions, but for the sake of this argument, it's clean enough.

Ohio's defense this year has been better than Miami's, 226th nationally to 304th.  In conference-only games, it's Ohio 11, Miami 10.  Of course, neither is good, but using Miami as the standard for which we should strive is wrong.  If you want other MAC teams to hold as an example, go with Ball State, Kent, or Buffalo.
anorris
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Posted: 2/7/2011 8:04 PM
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Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
Monroe, don't you have to account for the pace of the game to evaluate how good a defense is?  Ohio causes more possessions per game than Miami.  If I'm wrong on this, I'm sure the Dragon can get me the right numbers.
I'm sure he would agree with you on that point.  Defensive Points-per-possession would be a good place to start.  Ohio and Miami are actually both at 1.05 D-PPP, that is in conference play only, to negate the OOC schedule.  After two more games, when our opponents will all be common, will be an even better time to check in on this.

In all games, ours is 1.02, theirs is 1.06, which is probably accountable to SOS.

http://www.bbstate.com/conferences/MAC/aerial

I find this page very useful -- they are sorted by the difference between O-PPP and D-PPP, and I think you'll find their rankings pretty close to what you would expect intuitively.

1. Buffalo
2. Kent
3. Ball State
4. Bowling Green
5. Western Michigan
6. Akron
7. Ohio
8. Northern Illinois
9. Miami
10. Eastern Michigan
11. Central Michigan
12. Toledo

Edit: That's what I get for opening a thread, eating, then coming back to read and reply without refreshing.
Last Edited: 2/7/2011 8:06:31 PM by anorris
Pete Chouteau
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Posted: 2/7/2011 8:27 PM
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And we'd really be better than Miami if we'd just send it in to the tight end.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/7/2011 11:29 PM
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Theres's some truth to what you all say.  But it ain't all in the stats.

I'll concede that I haven't seen enough of redhawk to judge the quality of their defense.  But I've seen enough of ours to know that at great stretches--and at key moments--it hasn't been so good.  Oh, wait.  There's a thought.  Not much of the stats you all are blowing up take into account key moments--end of games and decisive spurts in game.

The bottom line is that I trust my eyes better than your stats.  Yes, stats might tell me where to look but sometimes you miss the forest for the trees.

Here's one, for instance.  A realization that I've just come to in the past month or two. Who's the best passer in pro basketball when going to the hoop?  If he finds the shot isn't there, he's quite remarkable at passing it out to the right open guy.  You wouldn't see this in stats.
anorris
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Posted: 2/7/2011 11:36 PM
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I don't see anybody arguing our defense has been adequate/good.

Merely that Charlie's hasn't been, either.
JSF
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Posted: 2/8/2011 3:52 AM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Here's one, for instance.  A realization that I've just come to in the past month or two. Who's the best passer in pro basketball when going to the hoop?  If he finds the shot isn't there, he's quite remarkable at passing it out to the right open guy.  You wouldn't see this in stats.


Yeah, if only there were stats that would account for passing.  Someone should come up with those.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/8/2011 10:37 PM
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Bobcat Dragon wrote:expand_more
Here's one, for instance.  A realization that I've just come to in the past month or two. Who's the best passer in pro basketball when going to the hoop?  If he finds the shot isn't there, he's quite remarkable at passing it out to the right open guy.  You wouldn't see this in stats.


Yeah, if only there were stats that would account for passing.  Someone should come up with those.


Huh?  My remark is about the quality of the passes, not the quantity.  You have stats on that?
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