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Topic: OHIO Basketball 1998-99 thru TODAY
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Casper71
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Posted: 2/14/2011 10:59 AM
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Slow day and while looking at the Sagrin ratings I see the following:

Current-Groce-#189
09-10-Groce-#98
08-09-Groce-#178

07-08-TOS-#98
06-07-TOS-#123
05-06-TOS-#97
04-05-TOS-#79
03-04-TOS-#210
02-03-TOS-#143
01-02-TOS-#94

00-01-LH-#94
99-00-LH-#61
98-99-LH-#51

Whether you like the Sagrin's or not, at least this is a CONSISTENT methodology to ranking OHIO over three coaches and 12+ years.  All numbers are the final rankings except for the current year.
PG73
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Posted: 2/14/2011 2:01 PM
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Ah to be #51 again. Gotta love the next level. Oops wrong turn.
anorris
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Posted: 2/14/2011 2:15 PM
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To be fair, it often takes a few years for a new coach to get their feet, style, and guys under them. It seems that TOS dropped pretty far his first three years as well... With the progress that I see on the court through the year this year, and what is coming in next year, if we have a defection free summer, I think next year has the best look of any in the Groce era as we enter the season.

I'll sound the alarm after next season if we truly make no progress.

Also, I think the next five games are huge in proving to me that we have progressed as I think we have, or if it was merely the West's level of play making us look better. Looking forward to finding out.
Bobcat Love
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Posted: 2/14/2011 2:51 PM
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I'll say this...with our attributes - we should NEVER, and I repeat, EVER be outside the Top 100 in Sagarin's power rankings at the end of any basketball season. With our arena, fan support, and talent pool -to sit in the 180's and 190's is a travesty of the highest degree. That's all I'm going to say about it.
SBH
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Posted: 2/14/2011 3:01 PM
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I couldn't agree more.
Pete Chouteau
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Posted: 2/14/2011 3:39 PM
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Looking at statistics, one might draw a conclusion that we should have stood pat with Hunter.

I advocated change at the time; the Grunkemeyer shot being the final cut. I can't change the events of the time, and I wouldn't change the decision made.
Athens
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Posted: 2/14/2011 4:54 PM
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Bobcat Love wrote:expand_more
I'll say this...with our attributes - we should NEVER, and I repeat, EVER be outside the Top 100 in Sagarin's power rankings at the end of any basketball season. With our arena, fan support, and talent pool -to sit in the 180's and 190's is a travesty of the highest degree. That's all I'm going to say about it.


+1
Athens
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Posted: 2/14/2011 5:06 PM
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Pete Chouteau wrote:expand_more
Looking at statistics, one might draw a conclusion that we should have stood pat with Hunter.

I advocated change at the time; the Grunkemeyer shot being the final cut. I can't change the events of the time, and I wouldn't change the decision made.


Wasn't attrition also an issue under Larry Hunter? Its plauged this program for a long time. Ohio always hire guys with a reputation for recruiting. It might be smarter to go after a system coach with emphasis on defense and stocking the program with solid role players instead of stars like Kent and Akron seem to do. Ohio always recruits good players but they are in-between out-of-postion type guys and an occasional gamble on questionable characters. Every year the team is both talented and underachieving at the same time. Its an endless cycle.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 2/14/2011 5:45 PM
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Bobcat Love wrote:expand_more
I'll say this...with our attributes - we should NEVER, and I repeat, EVER be outside the Top 100 in Sagarin's power rankings at the end of any basketball season. With our arena, fan support, and talent pool -to sit in the 180's and 190's is a travesty of the highest degree. That's all I'm going to say about it.


Ditto. And to go one further, there should never, EVER be a score like the Kansas/Ohio game early this year. I don't care who the opponent is, that should never happen against Ohio under any circumstances. I expected us to get thumped in that game, but that was like a bad Womens hoops mismatch.
SBH
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Posted: 2/14/2011 5:53 PM
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I heard that one of the final nails in the coffin for Hunter (before Grunk's miracle heave) was Patrick Flomo's failure to show up for a hearing in Athens Municipal Court. When the AD asked the coaching staff whether they had considered walking Patrick to court that morning, he was told "nope."
Last Edited: 2/14/2011 5:55:54 PM by SBH
SBH
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Posted: 2/14/2011 10:44 PM
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Correction: Flomo failed to show for a university judiciary appearance and got thrown out of school for a quarter.  Either way, the coaches were asked why they didn't make sure he showed up.

Casper71
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Posted: 2/15/2011 9:21 AM
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I didn't know walking a player to judicial court was in the job description for a coach.  I thought we were trying to develop young men who are responsible for their own actions.  To put this on a coach is foolish IMHO.  Wow did I hate the G-meyer shot but I liked being #51 or61 more!  Seems like ages ago.
bn9
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Posted: 2/15/2011 9:30 AM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
I didn't know walking a player to judicial court was in the job description for a coach.  I thought we were trying to develop young men who are responsible for their own actions.  To put this on a coach is foolish IMHO.  Wow did I hate the G-meyer shot but I liked being #51 or61 more!  Seems like ages ago.


It was ages ago.  Completely different time in College Hoops history. 
Pete Chouteau
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Posted: 2/15/2011 9:56 AM
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It was also a time when beating Miami was a more important part of day to day life. Sagarin ratings were available only to computer nerds and those willing to purchase a USA Today on the day they appeared in the agate.
HeHateMiami
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Posted: 2/15/2011 10:34 AM
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For added perspective I added in the overall conference rating from Sagarin for the MAC

Current-Groce-#18
09-10-Groce-#15
08-09-Groce-#18

07-08-TOS-#12
06-07-TOS-#14
05-06-TOS-#13
04-05-TOS-#11
03-04-TOS-#15
02-03-TOS-#11
01-02-TOS-#11

00-01-LH-#13
99-00-LH-#9
98-99-LH-#11

The problem with an analysis like this is you can use a partial look at data to support almost any point. Want to make a case that Groce has been doing a bad job? You can certainly do it from the Sagarin numbers shared at the top of this thread.

As we look a little closer, of course OU's rating is down in the Groce years. In his 3 years as coach, the MAC has been rated the lowest (or tied for lowest) as it has been in the 13 years that we looked at the data. Certainly that's not Groce's fault, and certainly win or lose, our rating will be dragged down by a sub-par conference.

Now look at Hunter's ratings, the #9 MAC in 99-00 was easily the strongest that the MAC has been in these 13 years, and nobody saw a stronger MAC than Hunter did in 98-99 (though TOS did see several #11 years that matched 98-99 during his time here.)

The point is today's MAC is a very different conference from yesteryear. While Sagarin uses the same formula I'd argue that comparing coaches over a 13-year span using said formula is impossibly skewed.
Last Edited: 2/15/2011 10:41:10 AM by HeHateMiami
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 2/15/2011 11:24 AM
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bn9 wrote:expand_more
I didn't know walking a player to judicial court was in the job description for a coach.  I thought we were trying to develop young men who are responsible for their own actions.  To put this on a coach is foolish IMHO.  Wow did I hate the G-meyer shot but I liked being #51 or61 more!  Seems like ages ago.


It was ages ago.  Completely different time in College Hoops history. 


I wouldn't say "completely" different...it hasn't been that long ago, really.  The MAC has declined not primarily because the environment has changed; it's due to policy changes and hirings made by the MAC. 
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 2/15/2011 12:54 PM
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Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
I didn't know walking a player to judicial court was in the job description for a coach.  I thought we were trying to develop young men who are responsible for their own actions.  To put this on a coach is foolish IMHO.  Wow did I hate the G-meyer shot but I liked being #51 or61 more!  Seems like ages ago.


It was ages ago.  Completely different time in College Hoops history. 


I wouldn't say "completely" different...it hasn't been that long ago, really.  The MAC has declined not primarily because the environment has changed; it's due to policy changes and hirings made by the MAC. 


I don't think it's a MAC policy for basketball to be bad but can't agree more with coaching decisions. Ohio, Ball St. and Toledo should be in or near the Top 100. Groce hasn't delivered regular season results yet.  Kowalczyk is fixing the disaster that was Gene Cross. Billy Taylor is slowly rebuilding from Ronnie Thompson. I have no idea how Charles Ramsey gets 6 years at EMU or Ernie Ziegler 5 years (with an extension for more) at CMU. And clearly Ricardo Patton has been an unmitigated disaster at NIU. Hopefully, NIU won't give him a 5th year.

Another factor this year is the youth of the league. According to Ken Pomeroy, the MAC entered the year returning the second-least (among all conferences) offense and defense. Only the WAC returned less. It has been a struggle for both conferences this year.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/roster_attrition_by_conference/
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 2/15/2011 1:05 PM
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QUickly off the top of my head (a couple of minutes for lunch break) I'd say most MAC teams return mostly intact next year with few significant losses to graduation. Ohio's most recent opponent, WMU, for instance, returns its entire starting lineup plus its best sub of late, freshman Juwan Howard, Jr. The majority of the MAC's top players are returning next year.  BG, BSU, Kent, CMU, UT should all be stronger next year and the next. Hopefully true for Ohio as well.

Havign said that, this year and last have been agonizing for long time MAC fans. Flipping thru the ESPN family of networks and taking a quick look at the crowds this winter provides a comparison. Games from the MVC, Colonial, Horizon (all leagues the MAC used to be better/equal to) normally show a big-college atmosphere with larege crowds. MAC games compare more favorably with a SWAC game I caught for a couple of seconds last night on ESPN-U (can't even think of the teams). Small, quiet crowds. Crowds less than 1,000 on more than one occassion.


 

Edit: Case in point: compare crowd/atmosphere in games tonight on ESPN-U (G. Mason at VCU) and STO (Ohio at UB). Explains why Larranaga bolted BG for George Mason, a move that confused me at the time.

 

Last Edited: 2/15/2011 7:53:34 PM by bobcatsquared
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