So if we win out and Western Michigan drops two of their last three, we could get a bye still...I think.

Maybe not the most probably circumstance, but it could happen.

Western Michigan has Eastern, Ball State, and Central left.

I believe (but haven't confirmed) that we will clinch a bye if we win out, likely even the 3rd seed if UB beats Miami.  I don't think it hinges on WMU either.  If WMU wins out, they'll be the West champs at 11-5, in which case Ball State will likely finish 10-6, but we win the tie-breaker with BSU by virtue of our head-to-head win. 

Good call Shawn.  That raises another potential problem scenario for us.  If WMU beats Ball St., BSU beats NIU, and WMU splits with EMU and CMU, then they'd both finish tied with us at 10-6 should we win out.  I believe the first tie-breaker would be between BSU and WMU for the West Division title, which BSU would win by virtue of its superior intra-division record (9-1 vs. the West in this hypothetical).  That would leave us tied with WMU, who would win the 4th seed due to their head-to-head victory over us. 

However, if Miami loses out (at Buffalo and vs. Ohio) to finish in a four-way tie with us, BSU, and WMU at 10-6, then I believe we'd get the 4th seed.  In that case, BSU would again be 2nd, WMU would be 3rd (beat both us and Miami head-to-head), and then we'd win a head-to-head tie-breaker with Miami by virtue of a superior intra-division record (6-4 vs. 5-5 in this hypothetical). 

So if we finish 10-6, I believe we clinch a bye with either two losses by Miami, or zero remaining losses by WMU.  We would win a head-to-head tie-breaker with any or all of the following of the other potential 10-6 teams by my calculations (assuming we win out): Akron, BSU, and Miami.

Of course, this is definitely putting the cart before the horse given the difficult remaining schedule we have left.  I'd say that 8-8 is just as likely as 10-6 at this point.