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Topic: Pomeroy's MAC Tourney Odds
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 3/8/2011 2:16 PM
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Interesting that the 8-seed is the favorite. And Miami with only a 7% chance.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=665

Mid-American
March 8, 10-12. First round at higher seed. Remainder at Cleveland.

Throw out the seeds in this one. The conference that sent its nine-seed to the NCAA tournament last season to disembowel Georgetown in the first round produces the most unusual breakdown I’ve seen in five seasons of doing this. Much like in the Sun Belt, there’s plenty of parity at the top of the MAC. Unlike the Sun Belt, the MAC’s favorite is an eight-seed, closely followed by its six-seed. And there’s this: Eighth-seeded Buffalo has about a one-in-five chance of cutting down the nets at the Q, while ninth-seeded Central Michigan has a one-in-2000 chance of doing so. Enjoy!

                       Rd1   Semis   Final   Champ
 8 Buffalo            92.6    50.2    32.0    20.4
 6 Akron              90.8    58.6    37.6    19.0
 1 Kent St.            100    48.7    29.1    17.5
 2 Western Michigan    100    72.8    35.0    14.7
 5 Ohio               96.6    52.9    21.6    11.4
 4 Ball St.            100    46.8    17.1     8.2
 3 Miami OH            100    39.0    19.6     7.1
 7 Bowling Green      69.0    19.6     5.4     1.2
10 Northern Illinois  31.0     7.6     1.8     0.4
11 Eastern Michigan    9.2     2.4     0.6     0.1
 9 Central Michigan    7.4     1.1     0.2     0.05
12 Toledo              3.4     0.2     0.01    0.0008
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 3/8/2011 4:51 PM
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What do you think the odds are that 1) the MAC West gets one win tonight; and 2) the MAC West gets one win the entire tournament?

Would not be surprised to see the West get an 0-for.
Last Edited: 3/8/2011 4:52:27 PM by bobcatsquared
Athens
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Posted: 3/8/2011 6:32 PM
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Are they factoring in here that Buffalo has never won the MAC tourney? Psychologically speaking the traditional MAC powers have an edge in this tourney.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:08 PM
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Is the incorrectness posted here based on statistical analysis or intuition/observation?

UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:10 PM
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His odds only take into account his rating of the teams. Buffalo entered MAC play with by far the best rating, and even though the Bulls have had some struggles in the MAC, they still have the best rating.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:12 PM
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So, there's only a 99.7% that we beat Ball or they beat us?


(just adding the numbers for each team in the 2nd round...i know...it doesn't work that way...i just like the thought)
Last Edited: 3/8/2011 10:13:29 PM by Monroe Slavin
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:38 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
So, there's only a 99.7% that we beat Ball or they beat us?


(just adding the numbers for each team in the 2nd round...i know...it doesn't work that way...i just like the thought)


Here you go.

Ohio + Ball State + Toledo = 100
52.9  +   46.8    +   0.2     = 99.9


Hows that?
Last Edited: 3/8/2011 10:39:00 PM by bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
Donuts
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:42 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
So, there's only a 99.7% that we beat Ball or they beat us?


(just adding the numbers for each team in the 2nd round...i know...it doesn't work that way...i just like the thought)





Have to take in consideration if one team forgets to show up on time, a coach/player goes postal, one of the schools drop out of D1 before the game, someone protesting Senate Bill 5 and/or the Indians use of their mascot messing things up outside The Q, etc. That only makes up for the <.1% chance as the Toledo thing above explains that other .2%.
Last Edited: 3/8/2011 10:43:46 PM by Donuts
oubobcatjohn
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Posted: 3/8/2011 10:47 PM
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Kent St and WMU are 1 and 2 for a reason. They won the divisions. That's something the other 10 MAC teams failed to do over a 16 game schedule.  They are the MAC's 2 best teams over that time frame. Fortunately for us we just have to be the best team thurs nite, friday nite and saturday nite when we play. 
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/9/2011 9:38 AM
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I think we can all agree they got the bottom 5 right.  The top 7 all have legit shots.  I'd put Kent, WMU, and Ohio as the best chances, Miami close behind at 4, and the other 3 not far behind.  And just a sidenote, this is based on a blending of statistical analysis and intuition.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/9/2011 12:30 PM
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Andrew, I think that we can take 'em but doesn't logic kinda dictate that you'd have to favor redhawk over us?  Well, at least in a head to head; maybe we should be favored until we meet them given the teams likely opponents in the brackets.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/9/2011 11:09 PM
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We obviously struggled against them this year, so in a head to head matchup, perhaps...But if I'm just assessing the odds of winning it all, I still would put Ohio/Kent/WMU as the top 3 (no particular order).  I'll be surprised if it is Ohio & Miami in the final (though that would be lots of fun).
OU_Country
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Posted: 3/10/2011 9:06 AM
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oubobcatjohn wrote:expand_more
Kent St and WMU are 1 and 2 for a reason. They won the divisions. That's something the other 10 MAC teams failed to do over a 16 game schedule.  They are the MAC's 2 best teams over that time frame. Fortunately for us we just have to be the best team thurs nite, friday nite and saturday nite when we play. 


I could argue against WMU being one of the two best teams, though they have been hot recently.  Lately, I think the 2nd, 3rd best teams in the East are better than the team that wins the west.  I like OUr chances this week though.
OUVan
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Posted: 3/10/2011 11:39 AM
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oubobcatjohn wrote:expand_more
Kent St and WMU are 1 and 2 for a reason. They won the divisions. That's something the other 10 MAC teams failed to do over a 16 game schedule.  They are the MAC's 2 best teams over that time frame. Fortunately for us we just have to be the best team thurs nite, friday nite and saturday nite when we play. 


Sorry but WMU hardly proved anything.  They were 3-3 against the East which is great for a team from the West but hardly Division Champion-worthy. To put that in perspective, that's the same winning percentage we had against the East. It's not a stretch to think that every team in the East takes the West.  If you extrapolate our schedule if we were swapped with WMU and in the West all of a sudden we are 11-5 in conference and have proved we are the best.  Western showed they are one of the top 7 teams. That's it.  They have the opportunity to prove they are better the next couple of days. I'm going to bet we aren't watching them on Saturday.
Last Edited: 3/10/2011 1:42:32 PM by OUVan
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 3/10/2011 1:44 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
Kent St and WMU are 1 and 2 for a reason. They won the divisions. That's something the other 10 MAC teams failed to do over a 16 game schedule.  They are the MAC's 2 best teams over that time frame. Fortunately for us we just have to be the best team thurs nite, friday nite and saturday nite when we play. 


Sorry but WMU hardly proved anything.  They were 3-3 against the East which is great for a team from the West but hardly Division Champion-worthy. To put that in perspective, that's the same winning percentage we had against the East. It's not a stretch to think that every team in the East takes the West.  If you extrapolate our schedule if we were swapped with WMU and in the West all of a sudden we are 11-5 in conference and have proved we are the best.  Western showed they are one of the top 7 teams. That's it.  They have the opportunity to prove they are better the next couple of days. I'm going to be we aren't watching them on Saturday.


I believe only Kent State (6-4) and Miami (6-4) had winning records against East foes. Ohio and Kent State were 5-5. Buffalo and Bowling Green were 4-6. I think the fact Western Michigan was 3-3 actually shows they are pretty close to all the East teams.
Tim Burke
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Posted: 3/10/2011 6:00 PM
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You guys are arguing with MATHEMATICS. Log5 is just this formula: 

W%(A v. B) = W%(A)*(1 - W%(B))/(W%(A)*(1 - W%(B)) + (1 - W%(A))*W%(B))

Since win-loss records alone aren't valid Pythagorean Win Percentages are used.

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