Enjoy it, because you may not get it until MAC Play.
After having watched a few minutes of an early practice, and Game 1 vs Tennessee Martin - a few general thoughts on the upcoming season in typical bulleted format:
A. I really really REALLY like this roster. Seasoned vets - check. Talented Freshmen - check. Sound backcourt - check. Athletic bigs - check. Bench depth - check. I can't remember a year on paper where we had just about every box checked in terms of having a perfect roster.
B. Most Improved Player: Ricardo Johnson. Bigger. Faster. More Athletic. More Confident. Improved knowledge of the system. Where he was pretty passive last year, he looks much more in sync with the team concept and creating opportunity for himself this year. I'm really excited to watch his continued development. I thought he played very well against UT-M yesterday. He was all over the offensive glass, holding his own on D, and always in the right spot on the offensive end. Should be fun.
C. With respect to Corey Reed, Mychal Green, Mike Allen, Dustin, Geno, Estis, Rush, and all of the Guards who have come before....this is the best collection of Guards I've seen wear the Green and White. I'm a dyed in the wool DJ Cooper fan, but I think it's very obvious his leash got a lot shorter this year with the addition of Walt Offutt and Stevie Taylor. Both can handle the ball, create a spark, play suffocating D, and score at will. In all honesty, my biggest concern is how we manage Cooper this year and continue to keep Kellogg developing. Do we unlock all the available talent in #5, or do we turn him into someone always looking over his shoulder because of lack of minutes? Does Kellogg just kind of get lost in the shuffle instead of continuing to develop into an upper echelon MAC guard? I don't think we want DJ playing guarded and cautious, but I also know we don't want him trying to force things. Yesterday was a perfect example, 8 assists from DJ in the first half and a perfectly dominating team performance. In the 2nd half, he starts getting shot-happy and sloppy, and we let UT-M back into it. Groce and Staff have to find a way to make this work with all 4 guards. Walt is going 105% every minute he's on the floor, and Taylor has a similar motor. DJ is a bit more methodical and Kellogg controlled. The contrast is going to be fun to watch, but I can't stress enough how important it's going to be for the Staff to manage the personalities and ego's.
D. The frontcourt is either going to push us into an NCAA Tournament run or get us bounced in the 2nd round of the MAC Tournament. I know the guards can play fast and maximize our number of possessions, but can the group of Smith, Hall, Gourd, Keely, and Baltic keep up? This is going to sound bad, but I thought we looked a little tired yesterday against UT-M. I feel like Groce wants to play the up tempo style he's always preached, has the personnel to do it, but the conditioning and execution just isn't there yet. Smith is unbelievably long, but he looked winded several times yesterday. In a wierd way, he seems really raw still. Gourd is going to be good. Again, raw. Keely has definitely bulked up and appears to have been handed some form of leadership responsibility, but he's got to earn it on the floor and in practice. Baltic continues to develop on a positive path. The ball still dies a bit when it goes into the Baltic or Keely post, but Ivo is so athletic and hungry that he can create a lot of his own opportunities. Hall looks basically the same as last year, but truly a nice luxury to have when he's #9 off the bench.
E. If Ethan and Belton can get healthy and in shape, you're looking at a team that's at least a solid 9 or 10 deep and perfectly hedged against injury or the inevitable 2-3 game suspension that we face every year.
From a roster standpoint, I really couldn't ask for better right now. Superb job by the staff molding this thing together. Now I really believe it's just about execution and conditioning.
F. The schedule. It's gotten a lot of flak for being soft, and the reality is - it is soft. But, I find a TON of interesting things about the non-con that we should all be excited about. First, we have Pat Knight, John Brady, and Todd Bozeman coming to the Convo. At one juncture or another, this would have been a parade of marquee names. While all 3 are reclamation projects, I find their presence exciting. Second, with Mike Marra out, we have a real chance to beat Louisville on the road. Could be a very ugly meal for Pitino at Porcini's that night. Third, I really feel like there's enough stern tests on the slate to get us ready for the MAC grind. We get WMU and Ball at home, plus we get off easy having Kent and Miami at home early in the MAC schedule. If there was a year to rack up wins, this is it. I'll never get the Portland game (why go 2,000 miles to play 1 game, nobody on the roster from the Pac NW), and I don't particularly care for the A&T/Kennesaw games, but as somebody wise once told me "scheduling as a mid-major is equally as hard as recruiting." Sure, I want Duke and Kentucky in the Convo, but I think we can all find something interesting about every game put in front of us.
I would like to see things upgraded several notches next year. As I said earlier, we have a marquee player in #5, and I really think it does him a dis-service to hide him from the national landscape like we did this year. We are unbelievably focused on TV in football, yet in basketball it appears to have very little bearing on how we do things. If DJ Cooper was on TV as much as Paul Hershey, the Convo might have a little different feel in the thick of MAC Play.
Here's my prediction:
10-4 in the Non Conference (Losses to Lamar, Marshall, Portland, and Northern Iowa)
12-5 in the MAC (Losses @ Kent, Vs. Kent, Vs. Ball, @ EMU, @ Akron)
Win Bracketbuster
23-7 overall. MAC Tourney Finals. No prediction past that.
See you all in the Convo. Should be a good year.
LOVE