Very interesting discussion and one I've been thinking about a lot lately. While I understand that fouls shouldn't necessarily be even, that doesn't stop me as a fan trying to point that out to a ref in order to try to get the next call to go my team's way. When BG was finally whistled for a foul last Saturday, I stood and applauded with other Ohio fans. I didn't necessarily believe the fouls should be even but after that there was a period where no foul was called against Ohio and they get the benefit (IMO) of a charge/block call.
I go to a lot of games at UD Arena and the Flyer Faithful can absolutely give it to the refs. After some calls whip the crowd into a frenzy, you can almost bank on the other team getting called for a moving screen or on the wrong end of a block/charge call. I read a book last year, Scorecasting, that suggests the primary driver in home-field advantage is officiating. They point out that the NFL home team winning percentage went down by like 6 points (I think, don't have the book with me but it was significant) when instant replay was instituted. The refs can still call more penalties against the road team but instant replay allowed teams to equalize the bad calls on game-changing plays.
Back to the topic of getting the fouls even. Ken Pomeroy recently addressed this on his blog in looking at play-by-play data (
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/play-by-play_theater_revisiting_consecutive_fouls/) from this year. There was also a study which appeared in the Journal of Sports Science in 2009. You have to pay for those articles but the study is summed up
here and
here. Basically, there is no question that either consciously or subconsciously there is an effort to even the fouls up.
Summary of findings from the Journal of Sports Science article:
- The probability of a foul being called on the visiting team was 7 percent higher than on the home team.
- When the home team is leading, the probability of the next foul being called on them is about 6.3 percentage points higher than when the home team is trailing. The professors also cited an earlier study that concluded there were more calls against teams ahead in games on national TV versus those ahead in locally televised games. Calling fouls against the leading team tends to keep games closer, the studies said.
- The larger the foul differential between two teams, the greater the likelihood that the next call will be made against the team with fewer fouls. For example, when a home team has three or more fouls than the visiting team, the probability that the next foul call is made against the visiting team is more than 60 percent. When the foul differential is as high as five, then that probability rises to 69 percent. The researchers also observed this trend when they looked at neutral-court games.