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Topic: OHIO finishes 24-7, What's Our NCAA At-Large Chance Should we Not Win Tournament
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Chicken George
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Posted: 2/2/2012 11:42 AM
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In the last poll most of you picked 24-7 as our final regular season record.  After the BrackBuster snub and despite Lunardi/Bilas giving us some thought we're a bubble team, I'm thinking 0% chance should we get bounced in MAC Tournament.  Wanted to see what you all felt.
athena
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Posted: 2/2/2012 1:31 PM
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Sadly, I agree with you.
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/2/2012 1:32 PM
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I say MAYBE losing one more game between now and the MAC tournament could get at large sentiment.  That would have to include Akron losing more than once so that Ohio is at least tied for the regular season best record.  I'd also say we have to get to the MAC Championship game to get consideration of an at-large.
JSF
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Posted: 2/2/2012 1:38 PM
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Who are we losing to?
bobcat695
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Posted: 2/2/2012 1:55 PM
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It's a one-bid league.  24-7 might get us a home game in the first round of the NIT.
OUVan
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:23 PM
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bobcat695 wrote:expand_more
It's a one-bid league.  24-7 might get us a home game in the first round of the NIT.


If Akron wins out and loses in the tournament final they get an at large. If we win out and lose in the tournament final we probably get a bid.

If we lose three more times we not only don't get an NCAA bid we don't get an NIT bid.  11-5 doesn't get you second place in the MAC.  It would probably get us our first ever bye however.
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:27 PM
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I ran some numbers. If Ohio wins out all the way to the MAC title game and loses there (28-5), it would finish around 48th in the RPI. Of course, that's given all things staying equal (all of our opponents performing at their current level, opponents' opponets also and other teams in the RPI playing at about the same level) so it could be a little higher or lower. Losing one other time (27-6) would put the Bobcats around 58th and two losses (26-7) would put the Bobcats at about 69th. Apparently, we're talking about finishing the regular season 24-7, so add one win and one loss in the MAC tournament and the RPI would be something like 77th.

Based on that analysis, I can confidently say if Ohio goes 24-7 in the regular season, it will not get in the NCAA tournament. Really, the Bobcats probably would have to win out until the MAC finals to get into the RPI top 50 and get any real consideration.
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/2/2012 2:32 PM
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UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
I ran some numbers. If Ohio wins out all the way to the MAC title game and loses there (28-5), it would finish around 48th in the RPI. Of course, that's given all things staying equal (all of our opponents performing at their current level, opponents' opponets also and other teams in the RPI playing at about the same level) so it could be a little higher or lower. Losing one other time (27-6) would put the Bobcats around 58th and two losses (26-7) would put the Bobcats at about 69th. Apparently, we're talking about finishing the regular season 24-7, so add one win and one loss in the MAC tournament and the RPI would be something like 77th.

Based on that analysis, I can confidently say if Ohio goes 24-7 in the regular season, it will not get in the NCAA tournament. Really, the Bobcats probably would have to win out until the MAC finals to get into the RPI top 50 and get any real consideration.

Your research backs my opinion.  We all know it takes a huge win number AND a MAC title game appearance to get the conversation started about at-large.  In the end, 25+ wins is a great thing no matter what.  NIT or NCAA tournament.  It's been a great year so far.

JSF
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Posted: 2/2/2012 3:02 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
If we lose three more times we not only don't get an NCAA bid we don't get an NIT bid.  11-5 doesn't get you second place in the MAC.  It would probably get us our first ever bye however.


We had a bye in O'Shea's last season, didn't we?
Matt Noonan
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Posted: 2/2/2012 5:03 PM
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We did. Finished 4th, got a bye, and lost to Miami in the Thursday night game of the MAC Tournament.
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