Another thing to bring up is matchups. Here are the three wins that landed John Groce the Illinois job:
Georgetown
Michigan
South Florida
I will fully give him the Georgetown domination, because I thought going in that was a terrible matchup for us. We shot 57% from three and 58% from the field. Those numbers will win you a lot of games. That game was played at a high pace, but we did give up 83 points. You don't win a lot of college games giving up that much to a team that runs the Princeton. It wasn't quite the efficiency of Villanova against the Hoyas in 1985, but it was close when it comes to just how easy we were scoring. This is what I feel the most legitimate tournament win we have had in this recent run, and it might have been the greatest offensive performance Ohio Basketball has ever had.
The Michigan game was an unreal draw for us. As soon as that game was announced, many shared similar thoughts that we would win this game. Before the Georgetown game, most were just hoping we weren't going to get embarrassed. I don't even think we played all that well, but Michigan just looked flat from the beginning. Again, credit is deserved, but that Wolverines team seemed to hit a wall. They missed some pretty good looks, and then made some bonehead plays down the stretch.
Finally, the South Florida game was ugly. I know the Bulls had a nice record, but they played offense like converted football players. No one could shoot, they couldn't really score period, and Ohio was good enough defensively that just an average offensive outing would win the game. Seriously though, if a team wins shooting less than 40%, that means their opponent was not very good.
Now let's look at Christian and see what landed him the TCU job:
Pittsburgh
UNLV
In 2006, Christian's team looked like they were ready for a tournament run, but, as is the case with many non-power schools, they have to shoot well and hope their opponent isn't equally as hot. Kent State didn't get that, as they shot 39% while Pittsburgh shot 67%. Do defensive schemes and such play a role in that? Maybe, but Pittsburgh was clicking in that game right from the beginning.
In 2008, Christian again has to fight through a terrible shooting performance from his team (36%). Yes, that's right, neither one of his tournament teams have eclipsed the 40% mark. UNLV didn't play all that well either, but they came away with a convincing win.
Both of those teams heading into the tournament were solid offensively. Sometimes, shots just do not fall. Sometimes, they do. Is that the difference when it comes to getting a chance at a big school? Yes, it most likely is. Tim O'Shea was heating up in coaching circles, and a win against Florida could have very well landed him a Big East job.
If NBA All-Star David Lee isn't there to catch an airball and put the ball in the basket, we could have pulled off the win against Florida. If Armon Bassett didn't find a way to stay eligible long enough to put together an unreal couple of weeks, we never get that shot against the Hoyas. If, if if...my main point in this very long and drawn out post is that a lot of these coaches at the end of the day are fairly similar. They have strengths and weaknesses, but luck and hot shooting nights dictates their fate quite a bit.
If we get in the NCAA tournament this year and shoot under 40% from the field against a solid team, we will lose by double-digits, and it wouldn't matter if Hunter, O'Shea, Groce or Christian was on the sidelines. An undersized team, which Ohio will be against a marquee school just about every time, has to shoot well for tournament success.
This overreaction to tournament wins is crazy, because in my opinion it tells more if you win consistently during the season. The tournament you just have to hope that everything comes together at the right time. You cant just flip an on and off switch. Christian is a couple of hot shooting nights in March away from being the toast of the town. Don't mess it up for him Nick Kellogg!