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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Clinching a #2 seed
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Athens
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Posted: 2/16/2013 2:01 PM
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I was looking at the standings and wondering how much more basketball Ohio has to play before clinching the byes. A win against Eastern Michigan on Wednesday would clinch a #4 seed as only Ohio, Akron, Toledo and WMU have less than 6 losses. A win next week against Akron would clinch a #2 seed as Ohio has the tie breaker over Toledo and WMU who both have 4 losses. I guess if Toledo and WMU both drop a game next week Ohio won't even have to beat Akron to clinch a #2.
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Posted: 2/16/2013 2:04 PM
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Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
I was looking at the standings and wondering how much more basketball Ohio has to play before clinching the byes. A win against Eastern Michigan on Wednesday would clinch a #4 seed as only Ohio, Akron, Toledo and WMU have less than 6 losses. A win next week against Akron would clinch a #2 seed as Ohio has the tie breaker over Toledo and WMU who both have 4 losses. I guess if Toledo and WMU both drop a game next week Ohio won't even have to beat Akron to clinch a #2.


Toledo not invited to MAC tourney, so no need to worry about their record.

Athens
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Posted: 2/16/2013 2:09 PM
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That is right. For the #2 seed then Toledo plays WMU the same night that Ohio plays Akron (Feb. 27). An Ohio win over Akron or a Toledo win over WMU that night clinches a #2 and a bye to the semifinals.
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Posted: 2/16/2013 2:28 PM
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Ohio could clinch at least the 3 seed today.  The worst Ohio can be is 10-6 this season. Except for Ohio, Akron and WMU, every tourney-eligible team in the MAC has at least 6 losses, with the only 6-loss teams left being Buff, BGSUcks and EMU.  All three are on the road, which is never a guaranteed win in the MAC.  EMU is playing at BSU (4-7) right now.  Buff is at Fiami (3-8) at 3:30 and BGSUcks is at Akron tonight.  Buff has the best chance of winning, but if all three lose Ohio would clinch at least the 3 seed and at least a bye into the quarters.
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Posted: 2/17/2013 10:19 AM
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As of today Ohio has clinched at least #5 seed in the East. Buffalo has 6 losses and 4 in the East but if Ohio loses out that is 5 losses in the East for Ohio so UB would own the tie breaker in that situation. Eastern Michigan also has 6 losses but would have the tie-breaker if they could come into the Convo and beat Ohio and Ohio drops all remaining games. If Ohio beats EMU it clinches at least a #3 seed which is significant as OU would avoid Akron until the MAC finals with a #2/#3 pairing in the semifinals.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 11:26 PM
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Ohio clinches at least a #3 with the win over EMU. A 3 seed is supposed to meet a #6 in the quarterfinals and that is angling to be a 5-7 MAC basketball team. In the semifinals as a #3, Ohio would square off against #2 Western Michigan another easy game. Already then Ohio is largely set until the MAC finals. What Ohio now needs to do is improve its at-large resume. They've got to win against Belmont and Akron to be taken seriously. A 15-1 MAC regular season co-champ should be able to do it.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 11:31 PM
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Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
. What Ohio now needs to do is improve its at-large resume. They've got to win against Belmont and Akron to be taken seriously. A 15-1 MAC regular season co-champ should be able to do it.


Got any kind of an estimate as to how a loss to OHIO affects Krons RPI numerically? How strongly does that affect the RPI math?
JSF
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Posted: 2/21/2013 11:35 PM
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We could win out and not even be on the bubble.
Athens
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Posted: 2/22/2013 12:40 AM
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bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
. What Ohio now needs to do is improve its at-large resume. They've got to win against Belmont and Akron to be taken seriously. A 15-1 MAC regular season co-champ should be able to do it.


Got any kind of an estimate as to how a loss to OHIO affects Krons RPI numerically? How strongly does that affect the RPI math?


RPI predictor has Ohio at #53 if we win out the regular season. I doubt we would go up in the MAC tournament beating WMU in the semis and losing to Akron won't move the needle. For Akron to win out the regular season that would bump RPI up to #33. A loss in the conference finals and they slide down to around #40. There is no way Akron can be touched in the MAC tournament until the finals so the answer is OHIO for the automatic bid.
Bobcat110
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Posted: 2/22/2013 1:20 AM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
We could win out and not even be on the bubble.


If we win out....then we get the auto and wouldn't need to worry about it
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Posted: 2/22/2013 8:14 AM
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The only bubble a MAC team that doesn't win it all in Cleveland is on is the NIT bubble.  Let's face it, the MAC is not getting two teams.  I think it happened back in the 90's maybe, I'm sure someone here would know specifically.  Point being, it's extremely rare.  Even Akron if they went undefeated in MAC play and lost in Cleveland likely wouldn't get in.  The committee would never get past losses to Coastal Carolina, Creighton, and Detroit.  It's not that they wouldn't deserve it, but the fact is they would rather have the #6 or #7 team from the Big Ten than a MAC team with a better record.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 8:45 AM
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Interesting year.

I suspect B!Gfinity will get at least 7 teams and poossibly 8 depending on where Illinois finishes. On the flip side I think it is a stretch for the SEC to get more than 3. Newcomer Mizzou may be the best chance at going deep. Florida has some good looking wins but I am not convinced they are poised to make a run very deep. Pressy has been impressive in his PG duties.

ACC and BigEast will round out the feild with multiple entries but there are some conferences with A10 and the West Coast that may take up some extra spots. Ironically the PAc 10 is so bad this year them beating up on each other may actually help them with more spots.

The pundits say the game is ot as good because the stars leave for the NBA>

I do not thik so ....I think the game is a bit less exciting because actual ball skillss are being put on the back burner in favor of athleticism.

At any rate ....there is great parity in the game now with 4 year guys like Coop being able to make deep runs at the mid major level. For Mid Majors the breakthrough has come and they need to step up and add to the path Gonzaga, Butler , VCU and other elite mids have forged.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 8:58 AM
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100%Cat wrote:expand_more
The only bubble a MAC team that doesn't win it all in Cleveland is on is the NIT bubble.  Let's face it, the MAC is not getting two teams.  I think it happened back in the 90's maybe, I'm sure someone here would know specifically.  Point being, it's extremely rare.  Even Akron if they went undefeated in MAC play and lost in Cleveland likely wouldn't get in.  The committee would never get past losses to Coastal Carolina, Creighton, and Detroit.  It's not that they wouldn't deserve it, but the fact is they would rather have the #6 or #7 team from the Big Ten than a MAC team with a better record.


I seem to recall during the Wally years that Miami got an at large seed after losing in the MAC tournament.  Maybe it's happened more recent.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:25 AM
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100%Cat wrote:expand_more
The only bubble a MAC team that doesn't win it all in Cleveland is on is the NIT bubble.  Let's face it, the MAC is not getting two teams.  I think it happened back in the 90's maybe, I'm sure someone here would know specifically.  Point being, it's extremely rare.  Even Akron if they went undefeated in MAC play and lost in Cleveland likely wouldn't get in.  The committee would never get past losses to Coastal Carolina, Creighton, and Detroit.  It's not that they wouldn't deserve it, but the fact is they would rather have the #6 or #7 team from the Big Ten than a MAC team with a better record.


The last multi-bid year for the MAC was 1999. 23-6 Kent State (an 11 seed) lost to temple in the round of 64 (final record 23-7) and 22-7 Miami (a 10 seed at-large selection) lost to Kentucky in the sweet16 (final record 24-8)
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Posted: 2/22/2013 9:27 AM
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bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Interesting year.

I suspect B!Gfinity will get at least 7 teams and poossibly 8 depending on where Illinois finishes. On the flip side I think it is a stretch for the SEC to get more than 3. Newcomer Mizzou may be the best chance at going deep. Florida has some good looking wins but I am not convinced they are poised to make a run very deep. Pressy has been impressive in his PG duties.

ACC and BigEast will round out the feild with multiple entries but there are some conferences with A10 and the West Coast that may take up some extra spots. Ironically the PAc 10 is so bad this year them beating up on each other may actually help them with more spots.

The pundits say the game is ot as good because the stars leave for the NBA>

I do not thik so ....I think the game is a bit less exciting because actual ball skillss are being put on the back burner in favor of athleticism.

At any rate ....there is great parity in the game now with 4 year guys like Coop being able to make deep runs at the mid major level. For Mid Majors the breakthrough has come and they need to step up and add to the path Gonzaga, Butler , VCU and other elite mids have forged.


Hit the nail squarely on the head with this statement.  It's been firing me up to listen to people talk about how bad college basketball is this year.  It's only bad because there are fewer kids with skills (shot making & passing) than before, and because more coaches seem to emphasize defense so much.

The more I watch OUr guys, the more I think they could go deep again if they got in.  Watching some teams, they don't share the ball, and take lots of bad shots. (I'm thinking of my dad's Bearcats here)  I'm convinced that on a neutral floor, we could take down half of the teams in every "power" conference at a 2/3 or better clip.

On the at-large...I think the perfect storm allows both Ohio and Akron a shot at an at-large. The perfect storm being they both beat everyone but themselves all the way to March 16th.  Maybe I'm off, but Akron has a legit shot if they lose March 16th, and maybe last year's run for us give's us a little bit of a chance to be in the mind's of the committee. Maybe.  Still, doesn't matter to me - I want to watch a win in Cleveland.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 11:18 AM
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OU_Country wrote:expand_more
Interesting year.

I suspect B!Gfinity will get at least 7 teams and poossibly 8 depending on where Illinois finishes. On the flip side I think it is a stretch for the SEC to get more than 3. Newcomer Mizzou may be the best chance at going deep. Florida has some good looking wins but I am not convinced they are poised to make a run very deep. Pressy has been impressive in his PG duties.

ACC and BigEast will round out the feild with multiple entries but there are some conferences with A10 and the West Coast that may take up some extra spots. Ironically the PAc 10 is so bad this year them beating up on each other may actually help them with more spots.

The pundits say the game is ot as good because the stars leave for the NBA>

I do not thik so ....I think the game is a bit less exciting because actual ball skillss are being put on the back burner in favor of athleticism.

At any rate ....there is great parity in the game now with 4 year guys like Coop being able to make deep runs at the mid major level. For Mid Majors the breakthrough has come and they need to step up and add to the path Gonzaga, Butler , VCU and other elite mids have forged.


Hit the nail squarely on the head with this statement.  It's been firing me up to listen to people talk about how bad college basketball is this year.  It's only bad because there are fewer kids with skills (shot making & passing) than before, and because more coaches seem to emphasize defense so much.

The more I watch OUr guys, the more I think they could go deep again if they got in.  Watching some teams, they don't share the ball, and take lots of bad shots. (I'm thinking of my dad's Bearcats here)  I'm convinced that on a neutral floor, we could take down half of the teams in every "power" conference at a 2/3 or better clip.

On the at-large...I think the perfect storm allows both Ohio and Akron a shot at an at-large. The perfect storm being they both beat everyone but themselves all the way to March 16th.  Maybe I'm off, but Akron has a legit shot if they lose March 16th, and maybe last year's run for us give's us a little bit of a chance to be in the mind's of the committee. Maybe.  Still, doesn't matter to me - I want to watch a win in Cleveland.


I'd like to think you're right but still think those NC losses kill their chance. Not that they lost, but who they lost to. NIT for 'Kron again!

2 teams in would be good for the league, though.
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Posted: 2/22/2013 12:11 PM
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Right now, Joe Lunardi puts Akron right in the mix with (just after) the last at-large teams in. Obviously, the Zips have a couple of chances to improve their profile, so as it stands, they certainly are not out of contention for an at-large if they lose in the MAC tournament. They might even be able to withstand a loss to Ohio and be in contention. They can't lose the BracketBuster game, though. A home loss would hurt their RPI too badly.

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Posted: 2/22/2013 1:18 PM
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If we win out, save for a close loss in MACC, perhaps our tourney history gives us a shot.  I don't believe that it's a 100% no at this stage.
Athens
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Posted: 3/2/2013 9:12 PM
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Ohio clinches the #2 today and is still in contention for a regular season MAC title following Akron's loss. The Cats will have a lot to play for on Tuesday night @Buffalo while the Bulls should be emotionally drained from tonight's big win. Akron is showing they can be vulnerable. In Cleveland we trust.
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Posted: 3/3/2013 12:15 AM
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This is shaping up as nicely as we could envision.  The way I have it figured Akron would have KSU and EMU in their side of the bracket and OHIO would have WMU and Buffalo.  The only minor change I'd like to see is if Buffalo could take the 5 Seed from EMU, thus putting EMU in our bracket and Buffalo in with Akron, Kent St and Buffalo.  But I figure the only way that happens is if we lose to Buffalo, or EMU loses one I dont expect them to lose.  Wouldn't mind Akron being forced to potentially play the winner of KSU/Buffalo, which are both two teams they probably would least like to face in the Semi's.  But the real key for me remains keeping Kent St on the other side the bracket which is looking better and better.
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Posted: 3/3/2013 2:06 PM
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I've done an extreme--extreme--amount of analysis.  My conclusion is that we must win two games in the MAC tourney.

I reserve the right to change my finding should later information shed further light.
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