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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Can The Zips Get An At-Large?
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HeHateMiami
General User
Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Mason, OH
Post Count: 492
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HeHateMiami
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Posted: 3/6/2013 1:42 PM
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According to this writer, there's only about a 10-15% chance. Great, albeit long, read for those interested in tournament math from a well-respected blog that covers Cleveland sports better than the local papers do these days. 

http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/03/the-diff-ncaa-t.../
 
Ted Thompson
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Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,948
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 3/6/2013 1:49 PM
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Dance Card says 5%.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Duke
11.9572
100.00%
1
2
Indiana
10.8424
100.00%
6
3
New Mexico
10.7227
100.00%
2
4
Kansas
10.5386
100.00%
4
5
Louisville
9.8612
100.00%
5
         
6
Gonzaga
9.4515
100.00%
7
7
Georgetown
9.1436
100.00%
8
8
Michigan
9.1121
100.00%
12
9
Miami FL
8.4494
100.00%
3
10
Michigan St.
8.4150
100.00%
9
         
11
Ohio St.
8.0090
100.00%
16
12
Marquette
7.4681
100.00%
13
13
Wisconsin
6.8952
100.00%
31
14
Florida
6.3033
100.00%
10
15
Kansas St.
5.8606
100.00%
19
         
16
Oklahoma St.
5.1320
100.00%
24
17
Pittsburgh
5.1007
100.00%
29
18
Nevada Las Vegas
5.0743
100.00%
18
19
Syracuse
5.0564
100.00%
11
20
UCLA
5.0238
100.00%
20
         
21
St. Louis
4.9838
100.00%
21
22
Minnesota
4.9708
100.00%
14
23
Arizona
4.8970
100.00%
17
24
Notre Dame
4.1519
100.00%
39
25
Memphis
4.0573
100.00%
15
         
26
San Diego St.
4.0102
100.00%
34
27
California
3.7166
99.99%
43
28
North Carolina St.
3.6371
99.99%
27
29
Creighton
3.5875
99.98%
38
30
Butler
3.5045
99.98%
28
         
31
North Carolina
3.4963
99.98%
23
32
Illinois
3.4819
99.98%
30
34
Colorado St.
3.4555
99.97%
22
35
Virginia Commonwealth
3.3904
99.97%
25
36
Oklahoma
2.8410
99.78%
26
         
37
Middle Tennessee
2.4761
99.34%
33
38
Oregon
2.3533
99.07%
45
39
Missouri
2.2113
98.65%
37
40
Colorado
2.0360
97.91%
35
41
Cincinnati
1.5024
93.35%
42
         
42
St. Mary's
1.4068
92.03%
40
43
Villanova
1.1500
87.49%
55
44
La Salle
0.7188
76.39%
46
45
Virginia
0.6660
74.73%
65
46
Belmont
0.6504
74.23%
36
         
47
Temple
0.5944
72.39%
41
48
Wichita St.
0.3356
63.14%
44
49
Boise St.
0.2700
60.64%
48
50
Kentucky
-0.1179
45.31%
47
51
Louisiana Tech
-0.3382
36.76%
49
         
52
Tennessee
-1.1591
12.32%
54
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
53
Iowa St.
-1.1813
11.87%
53
54
Iowa
-1.4241
7.72%
71
55
Mississippi
-1.5107
6.54%
59
56
Akron
-1.6284
5.17%
50
         
57
Providence
-1.6873
4.58%
62
58
Maryland
-1.7939
3.64%
61
59
Southern Mississippi
-2.0255
2.14%
51
60
Massachusetts
-2.1168
1.71%
52
61
Baylor
-2.2447
1.24%
60
         
62
Washington
-2.3730
0.88%
69
63
Stanford
-2.5500
0.54%
58
64
Alabama
-2.5603
0.52%
66
65
Arizona St.
-2.6152
0.45%
77
66
Xavier
-2.7495
0.30%
83
         
67
Valparaiso
-2.8749
0.20%
73
68
Brigham Young
-2.8928
0.19%
57
69
Northern Iowa
-2.9613
0.15%
67
70
Southern California
-3.0603
0.11%
70
71
Denver
-3.2483
0.06%
82
         
72
Arkansas
-3.6425
0.01%
68
73
St. John's
-3.7520
0.01%
63
74
Bucknell
-3.8464
0.01%
56
75
Air Force
-4.6002
0.00%
90
76
Saint Joseph's
-4.6833
0.00%
86
         
77
Ohio
-5.0543
0.00%
75
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
General User
Member Since: 12/1/2006
Location: Cincinnati
Post Count: 1,926
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bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 3/6/2013 2:08 PM
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I'd lean no, but you never know. A similar team to look at would be Iona from last year. They lost in the MAAC semis and still made it in despite most people thinking they didn't have a chance. At the very least they should be a team mentioned as "on the bubble" 
Mark Lembright '85
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ML85
Member Since: 8/22/2010
Location: Highland Heights, OH
Post Count: 2,460
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Mark Lembright '85
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Posted: 3/6/2013 2:15 PM
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Can they?  Yes
Will they?  No, the MAC will be a one bid conference this year.
mf279801
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M279801
Member Since: 8/6/2010
Location: Newark, DE
Post Count: 2,486
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mf279801
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Posted: 3/6/2013 2:20 PM
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Unless some team steps up in Cleveland (hopefully us!!!), they won't be eligible for an at-large.
OhioStunter
General User
Member Since: 2/18/2005
Location: Chicago
Post Count: 2,516
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Posted: 3/7/2013 2:59 PM
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Akron will be one of the teams Dickie V asks the Selection Committee Chair about on Sunday night as to why they weren't considered as an at-large.
Bleed Green & White
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Member Since: 12/27/2004
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Posted: 3/7/2013 5:54 PM
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Ted Thompson wrote:expand_more
Dance Card says 5%.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Duke
11.9572
100.00%
1
2
Indiana
10.8424
100.00%
6
3
New Mexico
10.7227
100.00%
2
4
Kansas
10.5386
100.00%
4
5
Louisville
9.8612
100.00%
5
         
6
Gonzaga
9.4515
100.00%
7
7
Georgetown
9.1436
100.00%
8
8
Michigan
9.1121
100.00%
12
9
Miami FL
8.4494
100.00%
3
10
Michigan St.
8.4150
100.00%
9
         
11
Ohio St.
8.0090
100.00%
16
12
Marquette
7.4681
100.00%
13
13
Wisconsin
6.8952
100.00%
31
14
Florida
6.3033
100.00%
10
15
Kansas St.
5.8606
100.00%
19
         
16
Oklahoma St.
5.1320
100.00%
24
17
Pittsburgh
5.1007
100.00%
29
18
Nevada Las Vegas
5.0743
100.00%
18
19
Syracuse
5.0564
100.00%
11
20
UCLA
5.0238
100.00%
20
         
21
St. Louis
4.9838
100.00%
21
22
Minnesota
4.9708
100.00%
14
23
Arizona
4.8970
100.00%
17
24
Notre Dame
4.1519
100.00%
39
25
Memphis
4.0573
100.00%
15
         
26
San Diego St.
4.0102
100.00%
34
27
California
3.7166
99.99%
43
28
North Carolina St.
3.6371
99.99%
27
29
Creighton
3.5875
99.98%
38
30
Butler
3.5045
99.98%
28
         
31
North Carolina
3.4963
99.98%
23
32
Illinois
3.4819
99.98%
30
34
Colorado St.
3.4555
99.97%
22
35
Virginia Commonwealth
3.3904
99.97%
25
36
Oklahoma
2.8410
99.78%
26
         
37
Middle Tennessee
2.4761
99.34%
33
38
Oregon
2.3533
99.07%
45
39
Missouri
2.2113
98.65%
37
40
Colorado
2.0360
97.91%
35
41
Cincinnati
1.5024
93.35%
42
         
42
St. Mary's
1.4068
92.03%
40
43
Villanova
1.1500
87.49%
55
44
La Salle
0.7188
76.39%
46
45
Virginia
0.6660
74.73%
65
46
Belmont
0.6504
74.23%
36
         
47
Temple
0.5944
72.39%
41
48
Wichita St.
0.3356
63.14%
44
49
Boise St.
0.2700
60.64%
48
50
Kentucky
-0.1179
45.31%
47
51
Louisiana Tech
-0.3382
36.76%
49
         
52
Tennessee
-1.1591
12.32%
54
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
53
Iowa St.
-1.1813
11.87%
53
54
Iowa
-1.4241
7.72%
71
55
Mississippi
-1.5107
6.54%
59
56
Akron
-1.6284
5.17%
50
         
57
Providence
-1.6873
4.58%
62
58
Maryland
-1.7939
3.64%
61
59
Southern Mississippi
-2.0255
2.14%
51
60
Massachusetts
-2.1168
1.71%
52
61
Baylor
-2.2447
1.24%
60
         
62
Washington
-2.3730
0.88%
69
63
Stanford
-2.5500
0.54%
58
64
Alabama
-2.5603
0.52%
66
65
Arizona St.
-2.6152
0.45%
77
66
Xavier
-2.7495
0.30%
83
         
67
Valparaiso
-2.8749
0.20%
73
68
Brigham Young
-2.8928
0.19%
57
69
Northern Iowa
-2.9613
0.15%
67
70
Southern California
-3.0603
0.11%
70
71
Denver
-3.2483
0.06%
82
         
72
Arkansas
-3.6425
0.01%
68
73
St. John's
-3.7520
0.01%
63
74
Bucknell
-3.8464
0.01%
56
75
Air Force
-4.6002
0.00%
90
76
Saint Joseph's
-4.6833
0.00%
86
         
77
Ohio
-5.0543
0.00%
75
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