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Topic: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds
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BillyTheCat
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Posted: 3/14/2013 12:46 PM
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HeHateMiami wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.
HeHateMiami
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Posted: 3/14/2013 12:55 PM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.


I give up. You have no idea what you're talking about, regardless of where you family members have worked. Vegas sportsbooks absolutely do employ handicappers to set opening lines (which do move like you're suggesting based on how much money comes in on each side). To argue that the money that is wagered is the only thing that moves lines though is patently false. 
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 3/14/2013 1:26 PM
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HeHateMiami wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.


I give up. You have no idea what you're talking about, regardless of where you family members have worked. Vegas sportsbooks absolutely do employ handicappers to set opening lines (which do move like you're suggesting based on how much money comes in on each side). To argue that the money that is wagered is the only thing that moves lines though is patently false. 


The point is the initial line is not based on who they think will win, the line is set on where they think they will get a balanced and profitable play.  It really is that simple.
HeHateMiami
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Posted: 3/14/2013 1:48 PM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.


I give up. You have no idea what you're talking about, regardless of where you family members have worked. Vegas sportsbooks absolutely do employ handicappers to set opening lines (which do move like you're suggesting based on how much money comes in on each side). To argue that the money that is wagered is the only thing that moves lines though is patently false. 


The point is the initial line is not based on who they think will win, the line is set on where they think they will get a balanced and profitable play.  It really is that simple.


Completely agree! The point that I'm making is that they will change the line regardless of how money is coming in if something changes (injury, suspension) that they perceive will change how money *will* come in. It's called handicapping.
DelBobcat
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Posted: 3/14/2013 1:50 PM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.


I give up. You have no idea what you're talking about, regardless of where you family members have worked. Vegas sportsbooks absolutely do employ handicappers to set opening lines (which do move like you're suggesting based on how much money comes in on each side). To argue that the money that is wagered is the only thing that moves lines though is patently false. 


The point is the initial line is not based on who they think will win, the line is set on where they think they will get a balanced and profitable play.  It really is that simple.


Umm... You're making the same exact point as HeHateMiami. If Team X is -8 because that's where Vegas thinks they will make the most money, then by default that's also how much they think Team X will win by--precisely because THAT WOULD BE THE MOST PROFITABLE.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 3/14/2013 2:02 PM
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No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line. Vegas does NOT want disproportional play, which means they will not move lines unless the money dictates. Vegas wants to guarantee they make money, and by keeping the line to where they are balanced will make EVERY game profitable, by squeezing the juice.

Reading material

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-17.htm
Last Edited: 3/14/2013 2:07:15 PM by BillyTheCat
HeHateMiami
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Posted: 3/14/2013 5:54 PM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line.


And I'm saying you're unequivocally misinformed. Sportsbooks absolutely are willing to re-handicap lines (so to speak) when it's announced that key players won't play. The quicker they do that, the less at risk they are on a bunch of money coming in on one side of that line when the news hits. 

I can't believe how stubborn you're being about this. Also you're wrong about Vegas not wanting to take a side on a game. Often they look to sit the middle, like you describe, but if they believe in their number they will take a side. I've heard this multiple times on Chad Millman's podcasts (he an ESPN guy, he runs ESPN the Magazine and covers gambling) where he talks to different wiseguys and runners of different sportsbooks around Vegas.

 


mf279801
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Posted: 3/14/2013 11:18 PM
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HeHateMiami wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line.


And I'm saying you're unequivocally misinformed. Sportsbooks absolutely are willing to re-handicap lines (so to speak) when it's announced that key players won't play. The quicker they do that, the less at risk they are on a bunch of money coming in on one side of that line when the news hits. 

I can't believe how stubborn you're being about this. Also you're wrong about Vegas not wanting to take a side on a game. Often they look to sit the middle, like you describe, but if they believe in their number they will take a side. I've heard this multiple times on Chad Millman's podcasts (he an ESPN guy, he runs ESPN the Magazine and covers gambling) where he talks to different wiseguys and runners of different sportsbooks around Vegas.


It is of course important to point out that when Vegas believes in a number and decide to take a side, it is with a different number than what they believe the final margin will be.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 3/15/2013 1:38 AM
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HeHateMiami wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line.


And I'm saying you're unequivocally misinformed. Sportsbooks absolutely are willing to re-handicap lines (so to speak) when it's announced that key players won't play. The quicker they do that, the less at risk they are on a bunch of money coming in on one side of that line when the news hits.

I can't believe how stubborn you're being about this. Also you're wrong about Vegas not wanting to take a side on a game. Often they look to sit the middle, like you describe, but if they believe in their number they will take a side. I've heard this multiple times on Chad Millman's podcasts (he an ESPN guy, he runs ESPN the Magazine and covers gambling) where he talks to different wiseguys and runners of different sportsbooks around Vegas.
Hearing is hearsay, I've provided documentation to support my side, you offer hearsay from an ESPN paid talking head. I rest my case.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 3/15/2013 1:41 AM
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HeHateMiami wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line.


And I'm saying you're unequivocally misinformed. Sportsbooks absolutely are willing to re-handicap lines (so to speak) when it's announced that key players won't play. The quicker they do that, the less at risk they are on a bunch of money coming in on one side of that line when the news hits.

I can't believe how stubborn you're being about this. Also you're wrong about Vegas not wanting to take a side on a game. Often they look to sit the middle, like you describe, but if they believe in their number they will take a side. I've heard this multiple times on Chad Millman's podcasts (he an ESPN guy, he runs ESPN the Magazine and covers gambling) where he talks to different wiseguys and runners of different sportsbooks around Vegas.
And what is your expertise in Vegas book making? ESPN is the only source you bring to this discussion so far. Vegas is not picking winners, they are making money.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/15/2013 2:41 AM
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DelBobcat wrote:expand_more
How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.


Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information). 

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know. 


They never took it off the board because the action did not warrant taking it off the board.  And to your post above this one, Vegas does not set lines on their opinions, they do not build those casino's off of opinions.  I have an uncle that was a line originator for Boyd Gaming and ran the sports book at Sam's Town, I've had this discussion many times.


I give up. You have no idea what you're talking about, regardless of where you family members have worked. Vegas sportsbooks absolutely do employ handicappers to set opening lines (which do move like you're suggesting based on how much money comes in on each side). To argue that the money that is wagered is the only thing that moves lines though is patently false. 


The point is the initial line is not based on who they think will win, the line is set on where they think they will get a balanced and profitable play.  It really is that simple.


Umm... You're making the same exact point as HeHateMiami. If Team X is -8 because that's where Vegas thinks they will make the most money, then by default that's also how much they think Team X will win by--precisely because THAT WOULD BE THE MOST PROFITABLE.


Nice!
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 3/15/2013 9:11 AM
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I will say I know little about any form of gambling. I don't do it because I like to keep my money.

But from what little I do know, I think it only makes sense to adjust lines when injuries are reported and before the money starts coming in overwhelmingly to one side.

I did watch something on sports gambling once I thought was really interesting. It was on a 60 Minutes or some show like that. There's actually a guy who is so big at betting that he bets so much money on his own to move the line a point or two to where he really likes it and then wagers absolutely massive sums on the other side of the adjusted line. It's amazing that one guy can bet that much money to have that much pull.
HeHateMiami
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Posted: 3/15/2013 10:05 AM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line.


And I'm saying you're unequivocally misinformed. Sportsbooks absolutely are willing to re-handicap lines (so to speak) when it's announced that key players won't play. The quicker they do that, the less at risk they are on a bunch of money coming in on one side of that line when the news hits.

I can't believe how stubborn you're being about this. Also you're wrong about Vegas not wanting to take a side on a game. Often they look to sit the middle, like you describe, but if they believe in their number they will take a side. I've heard this multiple times on Chad Millman's podcasts (he an ESPN guy, he runs ESPN the Magazine and covers gambling) where he talks to different wiseguys and runners of different sportsbooks around Vegas.
Hearing is hearsay, I've provided documentation to support my side, you offer hearsay from an ESPN paid talking head. I rest my case.
If you want to be stubborn and refuse to listen to people who are immersed in the space, that's on you buddy. I know a little bit about this subject and was merely trying to help people on the board who are interested, understand it better.

Your last comment makes it clear how unwilling you are to learn from others. I hope your head is comfortable buried in the sand. This was my last response to you on the topic. You are wrong and either unwilling to admit it or too stupid to understand it. Either way, it's not a good look for you.
mcbin
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Posted: 3/15/2013 10:23 AM
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UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
I will say I know little about any form of gambling. I don't do it because I like to keep my money.

But from what little I do know, I think it only makes sense to adjust lines when injuries are reported and before the money starts coming in overwhelmingly to one side.

I did watch something on sports gambling once I thought was really interesting. It was on a 60 Minutes or some show like that. There's actually a guy who is so big at betting that he bets so much money on his own to move the line a point or two to where he really likes it and then wagers absolutely massive sums on the other side of the adjusted line. It's amazing that one guy can bet that much money to have that much pull.


I think you're talking about Billy Walters. It was on 60 minutes a year or so ago and was a fascinating story on his gambling operation.
DelBobcat
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Posted: 3/15/2013 10:57 AM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
No, he's saying they will move lines due to injuries and other factors, I am saying that only money moves the line. Vegas does NOT want disproportional play, which means they will not move lines unless the money dictates. Vegas wants to guarantee they make money, and by keeping the line to where they are balanced will make EVERY game profitable, by squeezing the juice.

Reading material

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-17.htm


Omg, your own link mentions that injuries can move the line. 

Here is another one:

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html

 

 

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision. 

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."

 

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