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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Blown Leads
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Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/27/2013 8:35 AM
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Maybe this is the nature of college basketball, which is definitely a game of momentum, but I sure felt like this year had a lot of frustrating stretches, even in our wins, so I went thru to see what kind of leads we blew (or nearly blew).

@ Denver - Led by 7 with 12:30 to go - Lost by 4 (11)
vs. Akron (CLE) - Led by 7 with 23:00 to go - Lost by 19 (26)
vs. WMU (CLE) - Led by 16 with 18:30 to go - Lead fell to 2 (14)
@ Buffalo - Led by 9 with 9:00 to go - Trailed by 6 (15)
@ BGSU - Led by 13 with 23:00 to go - Trailed by 1 (14)
vs Akron - Led by 18 with 24:00 to go - Lost by 7 (25)
vs Kent - Led by 15 with 15:00 to go - Trailed by 2 (17)
@ Akron - Led by 9 with 25:00 to go - Lost by 14 (23)
@ Kent - Led by 8 with 7:30 to go - Trailed by 3 (11)
@ WMU - Led by 12 with 11:30 to go - Lead fell to 1 (11)
@ Oklahoma - Led by 1 with 21:00 to go - Trailed by 17 (18)
@ Umass - Tied with 14:00 to go - Trailed by 11 (11)
@ Memphis - Led by 4 with 26:00 to go - Lost by 26 (30)
vs St Bonnie - Led by 11 with 18:00 to go - Trailed by 3 (13)

There were other games that massive leads just became OK leads, but I didn't include those.  The common bond in all these games is the opponents are not terrible.  Look at how similiar all the Akron games went.

I'm not trying to make a statement about coaching or heart, moreso just about blood pressure and hair loss in my own personal fandom this season.  You could probably make a list similar to this for most basketball teams, but I don't know if it would be this long or drastic.  Dry spells really killed us, and early in the year I thought our defense was going to be so suffocating this year that we would be able to minimize giving up big runs.
Chuck_IV
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Posted: 3/27/2013 8:51 AM
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This is why people point to the coaching staff as an issue. It seemed like we would come to a game well prepared and would start and look great. But as soon as the other team made adjustments, for whatever reason, either our players or coaches or both didn't react/adjust well and that's when things went south in many games.

That's what made it even more frustrating... to see the potential, within each game, but then to watch to come apart later.
Last Edited: 3/27/2013 8:51:58 AM by Chuck_IV
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 3/27/2013 9:04 AM
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I'd be interested in seeing how this looks for other teams or even for Ohio last year. I don't think it would be hugely different. Obviously, this happens to every team, but it would interesting to see to what degree exactly.
bobcat28
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Posted: 3/27/2013 9:18 AM
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What would be interesting to see is the losses at TCU over the last few years to see if this is a trend or a fluke.
bn9
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Posted: 3/27/2013 9:22 AM
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I have no data to back this up, but it seems like we were on the other end a lot in previous years.  It seems like we would get down big and make big runs to win or get close.  Is that better coaching?
Chicken George
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Posted: 3/27/2013 10:31 AM
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I noticed this as well this year.  In the past I knew that no matter what the deficit, I had confidence our team would come fighting back and if not win, make a run.  Not so much this year.
LongDistancebobcat
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Posted: 3/27/2013 11:18 AM
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I'm not sure the point about not making adjustments is fair.  In the Denver game OU was down at half.  Do you get credit for then taking a 7 point lead in the 2nd half from adjustments made at half or get blame for losing the lead.  Travis Wilkins misses a layup and then you have missed FTs, DJs drive and Reggie missing from 4 feet.  That may be only one example and I honestly dopn't remember all the other situations, but there are many factors in the outcome of a game.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/27/2013 11:41 AM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Maybe this is the nature of college basketball, which is definitely a game of momentum, but I sure felt like this year had a lot of frustrating stretches, even in our wins, so I went thru to see what kind of leads we blew (or nearly blew).

@ Denver - Led by 7 with 12:30 to go - Lost by 4 (11)
vs. Akron (CLE) - Led by 7 with 23:00 to go - Lost by 19 (26)
vs. WMU (CLE) - Led by 16 with 18:30 to go - Lead fell to 2 (14)
@ Buffalo - Led by 9 with 9:00 to go - Trailed by 6 (15)
@ BGSU - Led by 13 with 23:00 to go - Trailed by 1 (14)
vs Akron - Led by 18 with 24:00 to go - Lost by 7 (25)
vs Kent - Led by 15 with 15:00 to go - Trailed by 2 (17)
@ Akron - Led by 9 with 25:00 to go - Lost by 14 (23)
@ Kent - Led by 8 with 7:30 to go - Trailed by 3 (11)
@ WMU - Led by 12 with 11:30 to go - Lead fell to 1 (11)
@ Oklahoma - Led by 1 with 21:00 to go - Trailed by 17 (18)
@ Umass - Tied with 14:00 to go - Trailed by 11 (11)
@ Memphis - Led by 4 with 26:00 to go - Lost by 26 (30)
vs St Bonnie - Led by 11 with 18:00 to go - Trailed by 3 (13)

There were other games that massive leads just became OK leads, but I didn't include those.  The common bond in all these games is the opponents are not terrible.  Look at how similiar all the Akron games went.

I'm not trying to make a statement about coaching or heart, moreso just about blood pressure and hair loss in my own personal fandom this season.  You could probably make a list similar to this for most basketball teams, but I don't know if it would be this long or drastic.  Dry spells really killed us, and early in the year I thought our defense was going to be so suffocating this year that we would be able to minimize giving up big runs.



THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS.  ARE YOU QUESTIONING THE QUALITY OF OUR SEASON?  ARE YOU DARING TO SUGGEST THAT RESULTS WERE LESS THAN OPTIMAL (whatever the cause)?

Obviously, I'm kidding.  Andrew, an OHIO and a CPA, and, therefore a certified genius, gives stats that tend to back up my argument that there was a lot of underperformance this season.
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 3/27/2013 11:51 AM
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College basketball is a game of runs, you can easily make the argument the other way. Look at all the times when we came back or extended leads on teams. Cardiac Cats. 

vs Portland - down 2, 30 seconds to go in first half - Win by 29

vs Richmond - down 4, 17 minutes to go - Win by 25

vs St Boneventure - down 3, 3 minutes to go - Win by 5

vs. Robert Morris - down 11, 12 minutes to go- cut it to 3

@ UMass - down 11, 7 to go first half, tie it in 2nd half

vs Toledo - down 6, minute to go 1st half - win by 9

@ Kent - down 4 halftime, win by 1

vs BG - up one at halftime, win by 9

@ CMU - up 2 at halftime, win by 19

vs Kent - down 7 with 5 to go first half, win in OT

vs Akron - down 6, 9 minutes to go, force OT

@ Buffalo - down 6, 3 minutes to go, win by 3

vs Miami - down 12, 12 minutes to go, win by 4







Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/27/2013 12:57 PM
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Fair enough. 

But also, please throw in the result--W or L--of each game.  And say something about the quality of the opponent for each game.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/27/2013 1:07 PM
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I definitely see what you are saying and ifgured it may be the case...but I will say some of the ones you list we only got in that position to scramble back at the end after blowing a big lead...and the swings in the favorable runs you list are mostly a lot smaller than the unfavorable ones I listed.  It felt like we suddenly went cold and let big leads disappear a lot more than we got hot and made big leads disappear...and I think the numbers back that up.
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 3/27/2013 2:19 PM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I definitely see what you are saying and ifgured it may be the case...but I will say some of the ones you list we only got in that position to scramble back at the end after blowing a big lead...and the swings in the favorable runs you list are mostly a lot smaller than the unfavorable ones I listed.  It felt like we suddenly went cold and let big leads disappear a lot more than we got hot and made big leads disappear...and I think the numbers back that up.


Outside of the three Akron games none of our collapses were as pronounced as our comebacks/finishes against Portland, Richmond, Kent x2, and Miami. 

It seems like this is more a problem with Akron than a problem with our team overall. 

Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 3/27/2013 2:50 PM
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Here's an interesting question this post brought to mind:

How big of a lead should be considered "safe"? And I don't want to hear the cliche that no lead is safe. At what point advantage should a team be expected to be a lock to win if they reach?

I'd say about about a 15-point lead. Anything under that and it's a bad loss, but not unbelievable. Anything over that and it really should be a cruise to victory.
Pataskala
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Posted: 3/27/2013 4:13 PM
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Brian Smith wrote:expand_more
Here's an interesting question this post brought to mind:

How big of a lead should be considered "safe"? And I don't want to hear the cliche that no lead is safe. At what point advantage should a team be expected to be a lock to win if they reach?

I'd say about about a 15-point lead. Anything under that and it's a bad loss, but not unbelievable. Anything over that and it really should be a cruise to victory.


Depends on how much time is left when the team gets the lead.  We had a 20+ pt lead vs. G-town early in the second half and that whittled down to seven before Bassett's 3 with about two minutes to go (I think).  I'd say a 10-pt lead with a minute to go should be about a lock; a four possession game (under usual circumstances) at that point is pretty comfortable. 
cc-cat
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Posted: 3/27/2013 4:49 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Depends on how much time is left when the team gets the lead.  We had a 20+ pt lead vs. G-town early in the second half and that whittled down to seven before Bassett's 3 with about two minutes to go (I think).  I'd say a 10-pt lead with a minute to go should be about a lock; a four possession game (under usual circumstances) at that point is pretty comfortable. 


          With Regards,
          Bob Mckillop
Last Edited: 3/27/2013 4:50:04 PM by cc-cat
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