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JSF
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Posted: 11/3/2013 1:53 PM
Uh oh. I set something off. Long post coming.

100%Cat wrote:expand_more
You can look at the other side of things, too, and say a team playing a more grind it out style will be harder for a team used to playing an open style to handle.


This is exactly what Isiah Thomas did when running the Knicks.

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Just because it isn't the trend doesn't mean it can't be effective.


True, but it's not a "trend" in my eyes. Again, this is in large part because of rules and enforcement. It's bringing real change.

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In this day and age of college football spread attacks and wide open offenses, who has won a few titles recently, and likely another this year?  Alabama, and their boring, physical, more traditional offensive attack.


I have no idea if this is true. But do the rules penalize Alabama for doing this? The rules are going to penalize basketball teams for getting physical.

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Teams in college basketball hardly ever use a full court press any more...but Shaka Smart uses it at VCU and guess what, teams have a hard time handling it.


Doesn't the current national champion do it?

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Were's that put Akron's KD in your accessments?


An excellent coach who has a very versatile team and has gotten a bit unlucky in the NCAAs.

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JSF, I don't really buy into your assertion that Coach Christian wants to play a grind it out style.  I think he was referring more to defense in his statement.  He thinks he has more depth of players who will play the type of defense and rebound like he wants them to.

Also, if you look at the type of player's he's recruiting, they are long and lean athletes with the exception of Tony Campbell.  Admittedly, Tony is built like a banger.  But IMO, teams need a few guys like that.  But overall, this staff is recruiting versatile athletes.


Valid points, Jeff. Good perspective.

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JSF, I've got an idea.  And I'm serious.  Why don't you find out when the first coach's radio show is scheduled.  They allow phone calls with questions.  Why don't you call Coach Christian and ask him to clarify these issues, and maybe then we will have more insight as to whether his plans are that much different than you'd like to see.  Plus, Bobcatattackers could tune in and listen.  I'm serious. 


I like this idea. Remind me about it.

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Christian took over a TCU team that was scoring 62, 63 points a game and left it scoring 72 points a game.  He took over a team last year, and it ended up leading in assists (and, no that is not all on him...at all).  Let's see how this team plays over the next 18 months before declaring him the out-of-touch coach of the decade.


Good points.

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Enough with the Groce man-crush folks.


I was afraid someone was going to say this. I said it as a means of comparison, not of longing.

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I don't care for his body language, ie he rarely looks the camera or the interviewer in the eye. He always seems to be looking down at the floor. He gives me the impression he doesn't like being interviewed.


This is stupid, but you're always looking for reasons to complain.

My view on Jim Christian is complicated. I was not in favor of his hiring, and I'm still not in his camp. It's not one big thing, but a lot of little things: No point guard coming in next year, his history of a grind-it-out style I think is behind the times, the general lack of standout players he's had, etc. At the same time, I defended him against people who said he did a bad job last year. And I think he doesn't deserve the "can't win in March" label some have put on him. But I also think there are reasons why he hasn't had success. Mostly, bad luck. His Kent teams were really quite good and it's not right to judge them on one game (especially that UNLV game). But there's also variance: Christian's teams tend to be low variance. In other words, they're pretty similar from game to game. As a means of comparison, Groce's teams were high variance. That's why they could beat Michigan but lose to Eastern Michigan. Christian's teams will almost never lose to Eastern Michigan but are that much less likely to spring a big upset. A great example of this (for those who follow tennis) is Marat Safin and Andy Roddick. Roddick was an exemplary low variance player. He almost never lost to people ranked lower than him in the rankings, so you could pencil him in for the quarterfinals or semifinals of majors, where he'd lose to a true contender. Compare that to Safin, who could lose to a blind, one-armed man any day but could also unleash his full talent and knock out Roger Federer in his prime.

I'll leave it to you to decide which you prefer. There's a lot to be said for a team who you always know will be there for the regular season title but leaves you unsure in a knockout format. And there will be a lot of people who say, "March is all that matters!" and don't care much how if you win in Kalamazoo in February. I will be unhappy if we see the team slow things down. And before you ask, "Would you rather win or look good?" I'll answer, "Both." They're not mutually exclusive. I have all the respect in the world for Bo Ryan, but I have zero desire to see him in Athens.

Jim Christian is a very good coach. He wins, which is job #1 for him. But I have a worry he'll give us diminishing returns. I fully admit this could be completely unfair to him. And I can be wrong about all of this. I've been wrong- quite publicly- before. And I hope I'm wrong again.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/3/2013 6:10 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
 . . . Jim Christian is a very good coach. He wins, which is job #1 for him. But I have a worry he'll give us diminishing returns. I fully admit this could be completely unfair to him. And I can be wrong about all of this. I've been wrong- quite publicly- before. And I hope I'm wrong again. (emphasis mine) 


I appreciate your insight and your analysis, and I understand your worry.  However, my gut tells me that JC has learned from his experiences at KSU and TCU and that you can't judge what he'll do in Athens by what he did at these places. I see the players that he's bringing in an it appears that the recruiting is going to a whole new level.  Perhaps even a few guys with "NBA talent" greater than Bota.  I could be wrong, too, but my quoted text of yours above is what I want to be true.  
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 11/3/2013 10:10 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
But there's also variance: Christian's teams tend to be low variance. In other words, they're pretty similar from game to game. As a means of comparison, Groce's teams were high variance. That's why they could beat Michigan but lose to Eastern Michigan. Christian's teams will almost never lose to Eastern Michigan but are that much less likely to spring a big upset.


Interesting point that I hadn't considered, and very true to this point.  Our seemingly disappointing 14-2 season in JC's first year and our euphoric 11-5 season in JG's final year is a great example of it. 

I actually think I prefer the "low variance."  I really hate the crappy losses, for one.  But also, I just can't wrap my mind around the "his teams come to play when it counts" crap that you hear so much in sports.  Much like when a batter gets praised for "clutch hitting"...I am left wondering that if they really do deliver in the clutch, does that mean they're holding back in the ho-hum moments?  I guess I think tourney success and "clutchness" is more a product of randomness than anything else.  A couple bounces the other way in March and JG is a nobody.
JSF
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Posted: 11/3/2013 10:22 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
But also, I just can't wrap my mind around the "his teams come to play when it counts" crap that you hear so much in sports.  Much like when a batter gets praised for "clutch hitting"...I am left wondering that if they really do deliver in the clutch, does that mean they're holding back in the ho-hum moments?


Very true. Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz are held up a postseason titans, but their numbers are almost identical to the regular season. They're just really good all the time

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I guess I think tourney success and "clutchness" is more a product of randomness than anything else.  A couple bounces the other way in March and JG is a nobody.


Yep. Groce has been the beneficiary of some luck, Christian the victim of some ill luck.
Hawaiian Bobcat
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Posted: 11/3/2013 11:29 PM
The only coach I can think of that doesn't deliver in March is Oliver Purnell.  OP lost as a higher seed multiple times including being a #4 seed.  I still don't think he has won a game in the tournament despite taking 3 different programs to the dance.  Was any of JC's Kent teams the higher seed?  Like JSF who wants to look good when the Bobcats win.  I want High Variance potential in March and Low Variance consistency during conference play. 
bornacatfan
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Posted: 11/4/2013 7:49 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
Very true. Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz are held up a postseason titans, but their numbers are almost identical to the regular season. They're just really good all the time

\
I am not sure I follow. Ortiz cumulative numbers in the post season are points above his regular season and as I watched him with 9 straight at bats on base and a .750 average going at the time I was thinking that he had just joined the likes of Reggie Jackson as one of the World Series memories of all time. NOt Mr October status but worthy of recognition for performances.

OTOH I am also a bit confused as to whether to put stock in what I am reading here on the interweb or what I read a while back written by a sports journalist regarding Beltran in the following article, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1808243-can-carlos-bel...

"Already a borderline Hall of Famer based on his regular-season performance, Carlos Beltran has made a habit out of flipping the switch from formidable to unstoppable in the playoffs." Perhaps he is leaving me with an erroneous impression?

WIth regard to the :"clutch" statement above I marveled all year at Votto who seemingly had problems gerting hits with runners on base but hitting a bunch of solo HRs while Phillips and BRuce seemed to .....like Victorino in the Playoffs this year.....convert when the runners were on base and the hits were needed most. I am not sure they are slacking at most at bats so much as they understand that they are really focused and dialed in when they really need to be....that would my definition of clutch. Understanding that they NEED to deliver in that situation and making sure they do.

Admittedly I am not much of a baseball junkie....maybe I am just seeing things with an untrained eye that do not exist. Help me out here with understanding what is being said.
JSF
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Posted: 11/4/2013 8:01 PM
bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
I am not sure I follow. Ortiz cumulative numbers in the post season are points above his regular season


No, they're almost identical: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml
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Posted: 11/4/2013 8:09 PM
bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Very true. Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz are held up a postseason titans, but their numbers are almost identical to the regular season. They're just really good all the time

\



WIth regard to the :"clutch" statement above I marveled all year at Votto who seemingly had problems gerting hits with runners on base but hitting a bunch of solo HRs while Phillips and BRuce seemed to .....like Victorino in the Playoffs this year.....convert when the runners were on base and the hits were needed most..


The thing about Votto is that this year's struggles with runners in scoring position weren't characteristic of his previous seasons. 
bornacatfan
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Posted: 11/4/2013 8:13 PM
JSF wrote:expand_more
I am not sure I follow. Ortiz cumulative numbers in the post season are points above his regular season


No, they're almost identical: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml


thanks for that reference, def a more usable source.......looking at his individual series (ALDS, ALCS and WS_) numbers he has had some pretty eye popping numbers.....perhaps his performances in those series rather than his overall cums are why he is seen as a titan.
Last Edited: 11/4/2013 8:26:50 PM by bornacatfan
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 11/5/2013 6:16 PM
My concern with Christian's style is whether it is less attractive to talented recruits. I thought Groce's system lent itself to landing high-major players lured by the promise of more possessions, more shots, more opportunities. Trust, perhaps sometimes misplaced, in the abilities of playmakers. What at times looked like chaos to us probably screamed SHOTS! to an18-year old. 


colobobcat66
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Posted: 11/5/2013 7:11 PM
Brian Smith wrote:expand_more
My concern with Christian's style is whether it is less attractive to talented recruits. I thought Groce's system lent itself to landing high-major players lured by the promise of more possessions, more shots, more opportunities. Trust, perhaps sometimes misplaced, in the abilities of playmakers. What at times looked like chaos to us probably screamed SHOTS! to an18-year old.
so how has the recruiting compared so far re:stars being recruited?
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 11/6/2013 1:24 AM
JSF wrote:expand_more
I am not sure I follow. Ortiz cumulative numbers in the post season are points above his regular season


No, they're almost identical: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml


Indeed true with Ortiz, his recent insane WS boosting his overall playoff numbers slightly above his career regular season numbers.

With Beltran, however...He really has been a machine in October.  1.128 OPS in the playoffs compared to .854 in the regular season.  And with 51 postseason games played, it is hardly a small sample size.
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 11/6/2013 11:29 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
With Beltran, however...He really has been a machine in October.  1.128 OPS in the playoffs compared to .854 in the regular season.  And with 51 postseason games played, it is hardly a small sample size.


Somewhere a New York Mets fan just threw something at their computer screen.
OUVan
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Posted: 11/6/2013 11:48 AM
hawaiian bobcat wrote:expand_more
The only coach I can think of that doesn't deliver in March is Oliver Purnell.  


John Thompson III? He doesn't just lose. He loses spectacularly.
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Posted: 11/6/2013 12:06 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
[QUOTE=JSF]

I actually think I prefer the "low variance." 


I don't.  I don't care how much "luck" is involved 2010 and 2012 will be years we always remember.   I'm not saying I would prefer a coach that once every four years put up a great year followed by three bad ones. But I'm also not convinced that JC is a coach that can't win in March. He just hasn't.   Coaching isn't a static talent.  Every year is different.  Like JSF I wasn't thrilled by the hire but we could have done a lot worse and it increases the odds that we'll be able to retain our coach even if we do very well.  Program stability is one of two major factors, IMO, that make for an elite program.  The other is money and we have stepped up bigtime in that area so we should be very good for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 11/6/2013 1:46 PM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
I actually think I prefer the "low variance." 


I don't.  I don't care how much "luck" is involved 2010 and 2012 will be years we always remember.


In retrospect, I agree with you.  But going forward, give me the low variance.
bn9
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Posted: 11/6/2013 3:11 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I actually think I prefer the "low variance." 


I don't.  I don't care how much "luck" is involved 2010 and 2012 will be years we always remember.


In retrospect, I agree with you.  But going forward, give me the low variance.


I agree, but if we don't have the back to back terrible losses in January or February, what are the negative nancies on the board going to gripe about?  Nevermind, I am sure that JC will not have enough shine on his shoes or his tie will be knotted slightly off center. 
Hawaiian Bobcat
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Posted: 11/6/2013 3:29 PM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
The only coach I can think of that doesn't deliver in March is Oliver Purnell.  


John Thompson III? He doesn't just lose. He loses spectacularly.


Thompson III has crapped the bed several times but he also has been to the final 4.  OP hasn't won anything.  He drove Flyer and Tiger fans crazy.
Last Edited: 11/6/2013 3:29:40 PM by Hawaiian Bobcat
OhioStunter
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Posted: 11/6/2013 4:09 PM
Brian Smith wrote:expand_more
With Beltran, however...He really has been a machine in October.  1.128 OPS in the playoffs compared to .854 in the regular season.  And with 51 postseason games played, it is hardly a small sample size.


Somewhere a New York Mets fan just threw something at their computer screen.

And missed.

 
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