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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: From Team Rankings . Com (plus updates)
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greencat
11/6/2023 1:46 PM
We currently rank Ohio as the #118 team in the country, and the #3 team in the MAC. • First game: Wed, Nov 8 vs. #217 Troy. Our power ratings give the Bobcats a 79% chance to win.

Rest of the predictions:

@ Cleve St - 44% chance of win
vs Detroit - 85%
vs GW - 74%
vs Delaware 73%
vs YSU - 69%
vs Marshall 59%
vs Defiance 100%
@ APSU 60%
vs Davidson 54%
vs Toledo 64%
vs NIU - 82%
@ BGSU - 56%
@ WMU - 77%
vs CMU - 91%
vs EMU - 88%
@ Akron - 35%
@ Kent - 33%
vs Buffalo - 80%
vs Fiami - 81%
@ Ball St - 59%
@ Toledo - 43%
vs Kent - 54%
@ NIU - 64%
vs Akron 57%
vs BGSU 76%
@ Buffalo - 61%
@ Fiami - 63%
Last Edited: 11/9/2023 1:53:03 PM by greencat
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M.D.W.S.T
11/6/2023 2:09 PM
If they go 23-4 I'll tattoo G-Wiz's number on my face.
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UpSan Bobcat
11/6/2023 2:25 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
If they go 23-4 I'll tattoo G-Wiz's number on my face.
To say Ohio is favored in 23 of 27 games doesn't mean they project to win that many games. Many of the games the Bobcats are favored in are virtually toss-ups, so statistically, they would be expected to win just over half of those games. Team Rankings projects the Bobcats to actually to win 18 to 19 regular season games and go about 12-6 in the MAC.
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greencat
11/6/2023 2:25 PM
I see at least five of those that might not go our way.

And that doesn't take into account any injury issues that could happen.
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greencat
11/6/2023 2:29 PM
quote:

The more precise final record expectation for Ohio is 18.6 wins and 9.4 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above.

• Based on our projections, the Bobcats will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 22-6 and 17-11.

More detailed projections from them:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/ohio-bo...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/?a...
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Alan Swank
11/6/2023 2:45 PM
So looking at that schedule, what would be considered our marquis non-conference game?
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M.D.W.S.T
11/6/2023 3:05 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
So looking at that schedule, what would be considered our marquis non-conference game?
Is Marshall still a rival?

I guess Davidson is the big non-con game this year. A home game vs .500 A-10 team that we play 200 miles from Athens.
Last Edited: 11/6/2023 3:05:52 PM by M.D.W.S.T
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UpSan Bobcat
11/6/2023 3:13 PM
Cleveland State projects to be the toughest nonconference game, but that is partly because it is away. I believe Marshall is the top-rated non-conference opponent, a little ahead of Davidson.
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FJC31
11/6/2023 3:31 PM
UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
Cleveland State projects to be the toughest nonconference game, but that is partly because it is away. I believe Marshall is the top-rated non-conference opponent, a little ahead of Davidson.
Davidson is picked 12th in the A10 poll and Marshall (picked 7th in Sun Belt) lost its 3 best players from a year ago. Unless there’s something I’m missing; it seems odd how either is ahead of YSU as our toughest opponent. Cleveland State is picked one spot ahead of YSU so that to an extent makes sense (even though I find that surprising).
Last Edited: 11/6/2023 3:37:40 PM by FJC31
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UpSan Bobcat
11/6/2023 6:35 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Cleveland State projects to be the toughest nonconference game, but that is partly because it is away. I believe Marshall is the top-rated non-conference opponent, a little ahead of Davidson.
Davidson is picked 12th in the A10 poll and Marshall (picked 7th in Sun Belt) lost its 3 best players from a year ago. Unless there’s something I’m missing; it seems odd how either is ahead of YSU as our toughest opponent. Cleveland State is picked one spot ahead of YSU so that to an extent makes sense (even though I find that surprising).
Youngstown State is ranked #168 in these rankings (and third in the Horizon). Cleveland State is #141 (second to Wright State). Marshall is #111 (second in the Sun Belt), Davidson is #135 (ninth in the A10). So Youngstown State ranks as the fourth-best con-conference opponent for Ohio. These rankings like both Marshall and Davidson better than the preseason conference polls like them, and it likes the A10 a lot better as a conference.
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Victory
11/6/2023 8:03 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
If they go 23-4 I'll tattoo G-Wiz's number on my face.
They predict 18.6-9.4 which is probably what you get when you sum up those percentages just like I do every week for their team bowl chances.

You have 23 chances to be upset and only 4 chances to pull an upset so in no way, shape for form does being favored in 23 games project to 23 wins unless you are a much, much, much bigger favorite on average in those 23 than you are an underdog in those 4 games.
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FJC31
11/7/2023 8:18 AM
UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
Cleveland State projects to be the toughest nonconference game, but that is partly because it is away. I believe Marshall is the top-rated non-conference opponent, a little ahead of Davidson.
Davidson is picked 12th in the A10 poll and Marshall (picked 7th in Sun Belt) lost its 3 best players from a year ago. Unless there’s something I’m missing; it seems odd how either is ahead of YSU as our toughest opponent. Cleveland State is picked one spot ahead of YSU so that to an extent makes sense (even though I find that surprising).
Youngstown State is ranked #168 in these rankings (and third in the Horizon). Cleveland State is #141 (second to Wright State). Marshall is #111 (second in the Sun Belt), Davidson is #135 (ninth in the A10). So Youngstown State ranks as the fourth-best con-conference opponent for Ohio. These rankings like both Marshall and Davidson better than the preseason conference polls like them, and it likes the A10 a lot better as a conference.
Shouldn’t these rankings like GW then? We’ll have to revisit this after non-conference. Not that I’m an expert; but the rosters of YSU, GW, AP, and even Delaware look more impressive than Cleveland State, Davidson, and Marshal imo.
Last Edited: 11/7/2023 8:21:05 AM by FJC31
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OUcat
11/7/2023 7:31 PM
Cleveland State took Duquesne to OT on the road in opener and Dukes are consistent Top 4 pick in A-10.

CSU has lots of size ... and Ohio will be its home opener.
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FJC31
11/8/2023 8:20 AM
OUcat wrote:expand_more
Cleveland State took Duquesne to OT on the road in opener and Dukes are consistent Top 4 pick in A-10.

CSU has lots of size ... and Ohio will be its home opener.
CSU doesn't use most of its size, though. The 6'11 South Florida transfer didn't even play against Duquesne. Enaruna will be a challenge for us; but the roster build reminds me a lot of us a two seasons ago.

Three guys who carry the load offensively (while playing a ton of minutes), but then where does the ball go after that? It'll be a scrappy and tough first road game for sure, though.
Last Edited: 11/8/2023 8:22:26 AM by FJC31
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greencat
11/9/2023 10:19 AM
This morning's post-win update from T R .com

quote:

• After beating Troy 88-70 yesterday, Ohio is now projected to finish the regular season 20-8 (12-6 MAC).
• The odds that the Bobcats make the NCAA tournament are up to 20%, an increase of 4% since yesterday.
• We currently rank Ohio as the #100 team in the country, and the #3 team in the MAC.
• Next game: Sat, Nov 11 at #114 Cleveland St. Our power ratings give the Bobcats a 42% chance to win.
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greencat
11/13/2023 2:51 AM
update (quote)

After losing to Cleveland St 82-78 yesterday, Ohio is now projected to finish the regular season 19-9 (12-6 MAC).
• The odds that the Bobcats make the NCAA tournament are currently 18%.
• We currently rank Ohio as the #105 team in the country, and the #3 team in the MAC.
• Next game: Sat, Nov 18 vs. #331 Detroit. Our power ratings give the Bobcats a 93% chance to win.
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greencat
11/19/2023 8:33 PM
quote:

After beating Detroit 71-52 yesterday, Ohio is now projected to finish the regular season 19-9 (12-6 MAC).
• The odds that the Bobcats make the NCAA tournament are currently 18%.
• We currently rank Ohio as the #102 team in the country, and the #4 team in the MAC.
• Next game: Fri, Nov 24 vs. #150 Geo Wshgtn. Our power ratings give the Bobcats a 62% chance to win.
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greencat
11/27/2023 11:32 AM
quote:

• After beating Brown 82-77 yesterday, Ohio is now projected to finish the regular season 21-9 (12-6 MAC).

• The odds that the Bobcats make the NCAA tournament are 19%, unchanged since yesterday.

• We currently rank Ohio as the #112 team in the country, and the #4 team in the MAC.

• Next game: Sat, Dec 2 vs. #158 Delaware. Our power ratings give the Bobcats a 74% chance to win.
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