Got this from rpiforecast.com pretty interesting. first column is our record, second our final rpi and third the likeliness of us getting that record. I don't see us losing more then three more games this year which(according to this) puts us in the top 50. 41.6 to be exact.

26-4 23.8 0.73%
25-5 28.3 4.67%
24-6 34.8 13.77%
23-7 41.6 22.91%
22-8 49.6 24.57%
21-9 58.3 18.32%
20-10 68.1 9.79%
19-11 79.1 3.85%
18-12 89.7 1.12%
17-13 105.2 0.24%
16-14 121.0 0.02%

I think we have a chance of being a bubble team. If we beat Akron, Toledo, Kent again, along with wins over EMU,etc...that's damn good. A close loss to Akron in the MAC tourney and we might be in the conversation for a at large bid. It's a possibility. 

I did not think about that.  Great point.

However, this entire discussion is built on the premise that we roll through the remaining MAC schedule.  I think we are a pretty solid squad, but that isn't gonna happen.

It is interesting that we are 13-4, because that 2012 Iona squad was 13-4 at one point as well.

I am sure fans across the MAAC were writing off some crazy Iona fan for claiming Iona was still alive for an at-large on Friday the 13th of January 2012 the day after Iona lost at home to rival Manhattan.

Iona didn't win out from 13-4. They went 12-3. We have 16 remaining games if we play 2 in the MAC Tournament. Lets say we go 12-4 from here out... Lose in the tournament final to another good MAC program (who is top 100 rpi, preferably Top 50) and finish with our own RPI Top 50 and we are going to be in the thick of bubble discussions.

Going undefeated this week would really get the ball rolling, although a loss Saturday on the road to a team in the Top 50 of the RPI would not be the end of the world.

I never said Ohio was on pace for an at-large bid. I said we were not completely out of the running for an at-large bid.

Last I saw, BG was around 175 in the RPI. That is not a good loss, especially at home, but if we win out, we would still be on the bubble.

I don't think we are going to win out, but the fact is if we do win out, we would still be on the bubble, which is enough to burst ozcat's bubble.

Richmond is a good win. Starting to look like a very good win. Northern Iowa and Mercer are both good as well. Not great, but good.

Ohio hurt its chances tonight in a huge way with our second undebatable BAD loss of the season.
You cannot consistently lose games to teams outside the Top 150 in the RPI and expect to be in the bubble talk. I wouldn't call two loses consistently losing outside the top 150, but you get up to 4 and we are that is a little too consistent for bubble talk.
As of right now, we are out, but that isn't the point I am making.

Look through the MAC the last decade on January 22nd and you will not find many years where the MAC was in a better position for 2 bids at this point.

"blah blah blah 1998" isn't an honest analysis for why it won't happen this year.

I didn't say two teams specifically are in better position for bids I said the MAC is in better position to get two bids.

That is an important distinction to make. There are not two teams in the MAC that would get an at-large if the season ended today. That doesn't mean the MAC couldn't get two bids. The MAC only needs ONE at-large to get two bids because one team would get the auto-bid.

As of today, Toledo is the ONLY team I think would get an at-large. They are 15-2 with their RPI in the Top 40. Before the field expanded to 68 in 2011, you could provide a better argument that they couldn't get an at-large. Looking at the teams that have gotten in the tournament in 2011, 2012 and 2013, I don't think you can make a good argument that the MAC can't get an at-large.

Since we went from 65 to 68 in 2011, take a look at some of the mid-majors who were in the "last four in" since then....

VCU 23-11
Colonial 2011
RPI 49

BYU 25-8
West Coast 2012
RPI 45

Iona 25-7
MAAC 2012
RPI 40

Boise State 21-10
MWC 2013
RPI 44

La Salle 21-9
A-10 2013
RPI 46

Iona from the MAAC got in at 25-7 with a 40 RPI but you are going to tell me Toledo isn't in position this year?

As for Ohio, we would absolutely be out AS OF TODAY. Where exactly do the at-large naysayers think we would finish in the RPI if we win out from here until the MAC Championship? I am not saying that is likely, but IF that happened I think our RPI would be in the Top 40. In fact, I think we could still drop another game or two and still potentially have a pretty decent RPI. Our OOC resume is better than people are giving us credit for. Richmond is now a Top 50 RPI win. Mercer is looking like they will be around 60. We only have 2 loses outside the Top 100 of the RPI (BG and Oakland) and both of those teams are between 100-200. Iona had two loses to teams 200+...

We have very little wiggle room from here, but it is time for people to realized the tournament isn't at 64 or 65 anymore. With the tournament at 68, the MAC is going to have a fighting chance for an at-large bid.... ESPECIALLY in a year like this where we have 4 teams in the Top 100 of the RPI and a couple more between 100-150.

Check out this Joe Lunardi tweet from yesterday...

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/427128486042427392

Ohio @ EMU under "worthy"

are you a "mute" poster?  Do you have anything to say other than posting pictograms?