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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: How Many Conference Wins On The Schedule?
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FearLeon
12/31/2023 10:09 AM
Now that AJB is done for the season, time to readjust W/L record for MAC schedule.

Best case: 9-9

Possibility: 7-11

Nightmare scenario: 5-13 (not out of the question)
Last Edited: 12/31/2023 10:14:10 AM by FearLeon
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FJC31
12/31/2023 10:30 AM
Hoping we right the ship and go 11-7/12-6. 10-8 seems likely.

If this team finishes below in MAC play, does that change the opinion of Boals long term? That would put him on a downward trend in each of the last two seasons. I’m not sure AJB’s injury can be used as a crutch. To be clear, I’m not advocating for it. Just an interesting discussion topic should that happen.
Last Edited: 12/31/2023 10:40:02 AM by FJC31
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Andrew Ruck
12/31/2023 11:09 AM
I will be surprised if we end up under .500.

WMU, CMU, EMU, Buffalo & Ball St are bad teams right now. Miami, NIU, BG aren't really looking any better than us. Kent, Akron & Toledo are...but we can absolutely beat any of them on any given night.

We got a crappy draw with our 2 double west opponents being NIU & Toledo. The other 4 might be the 4 worst in the conference and we get each of them only once.

Considering that, I'll say 10-8.
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M.D.W.S.T
12/31/2023 11:09 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Hoping we right the ship and go 11-7/12-6. 10-8 seems likely.

If this team finishes below in MAC play, does that change the opinion of Boals long term? That would put him on a downward trend in each of the last two seasons. I’m not sure AJB’s injury can be used as a crutch. To be clear, I’m not advocating for it. Just an interesting discussion topic should that happen.
Boals will be judged on March. Where he finishes in the conference. And if he continues to get recruits. Be a positive ambassador of the university, etc.

Hard to guess at this point, though 10-8 is probably correct.

The whole conference is pretty mediocre. 2nd place right now is Akron at 8-4. Think Kent State - Akron end up 1-2, but the rest feels wide open.

We could go 14-4 and I wouldn't be all that shocked. We could also go 8-10 and I wouldn't be all that shocked.
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FearLeon
12/31/2023 12:28 PM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Hoping we right the ship and go 11-7/12-6. 10-8 seems likely.

If this team finishes below in MAC play, does that change the opinion of Boals long term? That would put him on a downward trend in each of the last two seasons. I’m not sure AJB’s injury can be used as a crutch. To be clear, I’m not advocating for it. Just an interesting discussion topic should that happen.
Good topic.

Boals is far from the hot seat in my opinion. But the recruiting questions are legit. Gone are the days where you take projects and have redshirts. Yet…we have multiple examples. Nicol…The Whiz…Mr. Academics Ezuma…etc…etc.

This staff needs to take a hard look in the mirror with recruiting strategy moving forward. Losing Javante Brown to Western Michigan is hard to stomach…especially now.
Last Edited: 1/1/2024 10:51:43 AM by FearLeon
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
1/1/2024 12:20 PM
My guess is we're about a .500 team. Our schedule's been pretty easy, at least by SOS metrics (289 out of 362) and 2 of our 6 wins were against Defiance and Detroit Mercy (currently 0-15 and ranked 349 by KenPom).

Think the MAC stacks up like this:

Better than us: Kent State, Akron, BG
Toss up: Ball State, Miami, NIU, Toledo, Central Michigan, EMU
Worse than us: Western Michigan, Buffalo

There's nobody in the league we can't beat on a good night, and nobody in the league we can't lose to on a bad night. Think we'll punch our way to .500 or a game above.

As for Boals, I don't think he's on the hot seat even with a .500 season this year. But I do think it's time to look pretty closely at what he's building, and to ask questions about the talent level and recruiting strategy. The NCAA win earned him some time, but that team was led by guys he didn't recruit and 5 seasons in it's not entirely clear to be what "Boals Ball" even is.

The portal makes it basically impossible to predict what next year's team will look like, but as of right now it looks like this:

C: Evans
PF: Clayton, Hadaway, Ezuma
SF: James, Cornish, Nicols
SG: AJ Brown
PG: Sheldon, Burris

Also, I have no idea how the Covid eligibility rules are applied, so maybe Mitchell or Hunter or Wiz have more eligibility? Don't know.

But truthfully? That team looks bad. You need either Evans or Burris to step up big as freshmen, which is a rare thing. Otherwise, where do the points come from? I guess the answer is run things through Clayton and hope his efficiency scales with volume.


AJ Brown had a great freshman year, but he seems more like a shooter than a guy who initiates the offense. Who has the ball in their hands? Sheldon? Burris?

The program doesn't seem to be in great shape right now talent-wise.
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M.D.W.S.T
1/1/2024 12:48 PM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
My guess is we're about a .500 team. Our schedule's been pretty easy, at least by SOS metrics (289 out of 362) and 2 of our 6 wins were against Defiance and Detroit Mercy (currently 0-15 and ranked 349 by KenPom).

Think the MAC stacks up like this:

Better than us: Kent State, Akron, BG
Toss up: Ball State, Miami, NIU, Toledo, Central Michigan, EMU
Worse than us: Western Michigan, Buffalo

There's nobody in the league we can't beat on a good night, and nobody in the league we can't lose to on a bad night. Think we'll punch our way to .500 or a game above.

As for Boals, I don't think he's on the hot seat even with a .500 season this year. But I do think it's time to look pretty closely at what he's building, and to ask questions about the talent level and recruiting strategy. The NCAA win earned him some time, but that team was led by guys he didn't recruit and 5 seasons in it's not entirely clear to be what "Boals Ball" even is.

The portal makes it basically impossible to predict what next year's team will look like, but as of right now it looks like this:

C: Evans
PF: Clayton, Hadaway, Ezuma
SF: James, Cornish, Nicols
SG: AJ Brown
PG: Sheldon, Burris

Also, I have no idea how the Covid eligibility rules are applied, so maybe Mitchell or Hunter or Wiz have more eligibility? Don't know.

But truthfully? That team looks bad. You need either Evans or Burris to step up big as freshmen, which is a rare thing. Otherwise, where do the points come from? I guess the answer is run things through Clayton and hope his efficiency scales with volume.


AJ Brown had a great freshman year, but he seems more like a shooter than a guy who initiates the offense. Who has the ball in their hands? Sheldon? Burris?

The program doesn't seem to be in great shape right now talent-wise.
Shareef is a 5th year, but heard Boals refer to him having two years when he signed, so believe he has one more year.

Wiz has one more.

Hunter is a 5th year. Maybe has a grad year?
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Clown Ohio Fan
1/1/2024 2:10 PM
FearLeon wrote:expand_more
Now that AJB is done for the season, time to readjust W/L record for MAC schedule.

Best case: 9-9

Possibility: 7-11

Nightmare scenario: 5-13 (not out of the question)
I think this is far too negative. KenPom and Bart Torvick both project Ohio to go 11-7 in conference play. 7 of the 12 teams in the conference are sub-200 in KenPom. Toledo and Ohio are essentially tied for 3rd in the conference in the major metric sites. If I had to guess, I would put them between 9-11 conference wins.

It's been a disappointing season but they have six losses by a combined 27 points, five of which to opponents that would be in the top five in the MAC in KenPom.

Let's breathe a little. AJ Brown wasn't playing at a high level this year even when he was on the court.
Last Edited: 1/1/2024 2:22:42 PM by Clown Ohio Fan
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Clown Ohio Fan
1/1/2024 2:17 PM
There's three major issues with Ohio right now:

1. They've been awful in clutch situations (they're 2-5 in games going down to the wire). That won't stay that way all season.

2. They're very bad defensively. 238th in defensive efficiency on KenPom

3. They've been very bad at 3-point shooting (209th in the country)

Elmore James (21%) and Jaylin Hunter (27%) shot 40% from deep last year. Shareef Mitchell (27%) shot 34.5% last year. These are not bad shooters but they're not making shots right now.

And if I would add a fourth, they've been very poor from the line in some of these 50/50 games.

I'd expect their defense to continue to struggle throughout the year but put up slightly better numbers due to decreased competition level in the MAC and the law of averages would say their shooting will eventually improve.
Last Edited: 1/1/2024 2:18:06 PM by Clown Ohio Fan
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OUcat
1/1/2024 7:23 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I will be surprised if we end up under .500.

WMU, CMU, EMU, Buffalo & Ball St are bad teams right now. Miami, NIU, BG aren't really looking any better than us. Kent, Akron & Toledo are...but we can absolutely beat any of them on any given night.

We got a crappy draw with our 2 double west opponents being NIU & Toledo. The other 4 might be the 4 worst in the conference and we get each of them only once.

Considering that, I'll say 10-8.
WMU, CMU, EMU are bad teams, but all three have size better than the Cats. --- Sweeping all three will be key to a winning MAC season --

Ball State is a puzzle, but also has size inside. Miami, NIU, BG are all on the uptick. Kent suddenly has major injury issues so that's a break. Akron has crappy guards. Toledo (after Akron) may be the best of the bunch.

Pending how team plays/matures ... I could see 11-7 just as easily as 7-11.
Last Edited: 1/1/2024 7:28:39 PM by OUcat
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Andrew Ruck
1/2/2024 8:25 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
My guess is we're about a .500 team. Our schedule's been pretty easy, at least by SOS metrics (289 out of 362) and 2 of our 6 wins were against Defiance and Detroit Mercy (currently 0-15 and ranked 349 by KenPom).

Think the MAC stacks up like this:

Better than us: Kent State, Akron, BG
Toss up: Ball State, Miami, NIU, Toledo, Central Michigan, EMU
Worse than us: Western Michigan, Buffalo

There's nobody in the league we can't beat on a good night, and nobody in the league we can't lose to on a bad night. Think we'll punch our way to .500 or a game above.

As for Boals, I don't think he's on the hot seat even with a .500 season this year. But I do think it's time to look pretty closely at what he's building, and to ask questions about the talent level and recruiting strategy. The NCAA win earned him some time, but that team was led by guys he didn't recruit and 5 seasons in it's not entirely clear to be what "Boals Ball" even is.

The portal makes it basically impossible to predict what next year's team will look like, but as of right now it looks like this:

C: Evans
PF: Clayton, Hadaway, Ezuma
SF: James, Cornish, Nicols
SG: AJ Brown
PG: Sheldon, Burris

Also, I have no idea how the Covid eligibility rules are applied, so maybe Mitchell or Hunter or Wiz have more eligibility? Don't know.

But truthfully? That team looks bad. You need either Evans or Burris to step up big as freshmen, which is a rare thing. Otherwise, where do the points come from? I guess the answer is run things through Clayton and hope his efficiency scales with volume.


AJ Brown had a great freshman year, but he seems more like a shooter than a guy who initiates the offense. Who has the ball in their hands? Sheldon? Burris?

The program doesn't seem to be in great shape right now talent-wise.
Shareef is a 5th year, but heard Boals refer to him having two years when he signed, so believe he has one more year.

Wiz has one more.

Hunter is a 5th year. Maybe has a grad year?
Yes Wiz has his Covid year still. He is only in year 4.

Shereef is in his 5th year, but I assume his 3rd year with Creighton was deemed a meidcal redshirt as he played only 6 games.

Hunter is in his 5th full season, most definitely done. Same for Miles Brown.

After these guys, we are done with this confusing madness of the bonus year. The next class (Juniors) is just AJ Clayton (and I suppose Ezuma if you want to mention him) and he joined the team in the fall of 2021, after the Covid crap.
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shabamon
1/2/2024 10:44 AM
FormerMember wrote:expand_more
There's three major issues with Ohio right now:

1. They've been awful in clutch situations (they're 2-5 in games going down to the wire). That won't stay that way all season.

2. They're very bad defensively. 238th in defensive efficiency on KenPom

3. They've been very bad at 3-point shooting (209th in the country)

Elmore James (21%) and Jaylin Hunter (27%) shot 40% from deep last year. Shareef Mitchell (27%) shot 34.5% last year. These are not bad shooters but they're not making shots right now.

And if I would add a fourth, they've been very poor from the line in some of these 50/50 games.

I'd expect their defense to continue to struggle throughout the year but put up slightly better numbers due to decreased competition level in the MAC and the law of averages would say their shooting will eventually improve.
5) We are actively using only nine scholarships at the moment. Nichol is redshirting, AJB is sidelined, IJ is anyone's guess, and one spot is completely unfilled.
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FearLeon
1/2/2024 12:55 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
There's three major issues with Ohio right now:

1. They've been awful in clutch situations (they're 2-5 in games going down to the wire). That won't stay that way all season.

2. They're very bad defensively. 238th in defensive efficiency on KenPom

3. They've been very bad at 3-point shooting (209th in the country)

Elmore James (21%) and Jaylin Hunter (27%) shot 40% from deep last year. Shareef Mitchell (27%) shot 34.5% last year. These are not bad shooters but they're not making shots right now.

And if I would add a fourth, they've been very poor from the line in some of these 50/50 games.

I'd expect their defense to continue to struggle throughout the year but put up slightly better numbers due to decreased competition level in the MAC and the law of averages would say their shooting will eventually improve.
5) We are actively using only nine scholarships at the moment. Nichol is redshirting, AJB is sidelined, IJ is anyone's guess, and one spot is completely unfilled.
Using only 9 scholarships. Not good. Not good at all.
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FearLeon
1/2/2024 7:12 PM
FearLeon wrote:expand_more
Now that AJB is done for the season, time to readjust W/L record for MAC schedule.

Best case: 9-9

Possibility: 7-11

Nightmare scenario: 5-13 (not out of the question)
Boals not calling a timeout before the 4 minute mark against Toledo was fun to watch.

0-1 in MAC.

After tonight’s pitiful performance, 5-13 really isn’t out of the question. Some of those directional Michigan schools are playing well tonight.
Last Edited: 1/2/2024 8:50:39 PM by FearLeon
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M.D.W.S.T
1/2/2024 10:57 PM
FearLeon wrote:expand_more
There's three major issues with Ohio right now:

1. They've been awful in clutch situations (they're 2-5 in games going down to the wire). That won't stay that way all season.

2. They're very bad defensively. 238th in defensive efficiency on KenPom

3. They've been very bad at 3-point shooting (209th in the country)

Elmore James (21%) and Jaylin Hunter (27%) shot 40% from deep last year. Shareef Mitchell (27%) shot 34.5% last year. These are not bad shooters but they're not making shots right now.

And if I would add a fourth, they've been very poor from the line in some of these 50/50 games.

I'd expect their defense to continue to struggle throughout the year but put up slightly better numbers due to decreased competition level in the MAC and the law of averages would say their shooting will eventually improve.
5) We are actively using only nine scholarships at the moment. Nichol is redshirting, AJB is sidelined, IJ is anyone's guess, and one spot is completely unfilled.
Using only 9 scholarships. Not good. Not good at all.
And a few of the 9 are… speculative…
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Buckeye to Bobcat
1/3/2024 11:04 AM
Predicting 6 wins in MAC Play.....no bigs and the sins will show up
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GraffZ06
1/3/2024 2:55 PM
I'll just re-post my pre-season prediction here because it's still true.

10 MAC wins. We are bad, but so is the MAC.

GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
11/8 vs Troy - W
11/11 @ Cleveland St - L
11/18 @ Detroit - W
11/24 vs George Washington (Bahamas) - L
11/25 vs Middle Tenn / UIC (Bahamas) - W
11/26 vs UNCG/KC/Brown/Delaware (Bahamas) - W
12/2 vs Delaware - W
12/6 vs Youngstown St - W
12/9 vs Marshall - L
12/18 vs Defiance - W
12/22 @ Austin Peay - L
12/30 vs Davidson (Cleveland) - L
1/2 vs Toledo - L
1/6 vs Northern Ill - W
1/9 @ Bowling Green - L
1/13 @ Western Mich - W
1/16 vs Central Mich - W
1/20 vs Eastern Mich - W
1/23 @ Akron - L
1/26 @ Kent St - L
1/30 vs Buffalo - W
2/3 vs Miami - W
2/6 @ Ball St - W
2/10 @ Sun Belt TBD - L
2/17 @ Toledo - L
2/20 vs Kent St - L
2/24 @ Northern Ill - W
2/27 vs Akron - L
3/2 vs Bowling Green - W
3/5 @ Buffalo - L
3/8 @ Miami - W

MAC Regular Season Record (18 games) - 10-8
Overall Regular Season Record (31 games) - 17-14

MAC Tourney - 1-1, loss in semis
Postseason - None
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ohiocatfan1
1/3/2024 3:56 PM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
I'll just re-post my pre-season prediction here because it's still true.

10 MAC wins. We are bad, but so is the MAC.

11/8 vs Troy - W
11/11 @ Cleveland St - L
11/18 @ Detroit - W
11/24 vs George Washington (Bahamas) - L
11/25 vs Middle Tenn / UIC (Bahamas) - W
11/26 vs UNCG/KC/Brown/Delaware (Bahamas) - W
12/2 vs Delaware - W
12/6 vs Youngstown St - W
12/9 vs Marshall - L
12/18 vs Defiance - W
12/22 @ Austin Peay - L
12/30 vs Davidson (Cleveland) - L
1/2 vs Toledo - L
1/6 vs Northern Ill - W
1/9 @ Bowling Green - L
1/13 @ Western Mich - W
1/16 vs Central Mich - W
1/20 vs Eastern Mich - W
1/23 @ Akron - L
1/26 @ Kent St - L
1/30 vs Buffalo - W
2/3 vs Miami - W
2/6 @ Ball St - W
2/10 @ Sun Belt TBD - L
2/17 @ Toledo - L
2/20 vs Kent St - L
2/24 @ Northern Ill - W
2/27 vs Akron - L
3/2 vs Bowling Green - W
3/5 @ Buffalo - L
3/8 @ Miami - W

MAC Regular Season Record (18 games) - 10-8
Overall Regular Season Record (31 games) - 17-14

MAC Tourney - 1-1, loss in semis
Postseason - None
After last night I admire your optimism.
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