Either Burris or Sheldon absolutely has to step up and become the outside shooting threat on this team. Otherwise, any drive and kick capability from Pav or E2 go out the window. If that's the case, you may as well go big boy ball and bring shooters off the bench. To me, I'm splitting minutes between Burris and Sheldon until one can prove he's the guy, then giving more to the one that does as the season progresses.

E2 (30)
Pav (30)
Hadaway (25)
Simmons (25)
Breath (20)
Connors (15)
Sheldon (15)
Burris (15)
Kuany (15)
Kelly (10)

Wait a minute…did Conners come here to play only 15 minutes per game? I don’t see this as a positive if one of our key portal additions is only getting 15 minutes from the shooter position.

+1

I'd like to see Conners up to 20-22 minutes per game and Sheldon down to 5-10 minutes per game.

Connors was playing 28 mpg last year. I understand playing closer to home was a factor for him, but I'd like to think he sees more minutes if he's knocking down the 3. I also hope Breath sees around 25 minutes.

Check the Wright State exhibition thread.

People also watched him play last year and took note of the fact that Boals brought in two bigs in the portal.

If people are expecting much from Evans this year, they're gonna be disappointed.

I won't disagree that we should try the big lineup with Hadaway, Simmons, and Breath, but I have major doubts that it can be a sustainable lineup.

Simmons is going to struggle mightily to defend any type of player that isn't a typical MAC 5, and he would see lots of those players if he was asked to defend 4's. I have the same feeling of Hadaway at the 3. Hadaway can handle MAC 4's, but asking him to guard MAC 3's (who are typically tilted towards more of a guard skillset like Eliot) seems like a stretch.

Those issues, on top of the offensive spacing concerns others have mentioned seem too much to overcome with rebounding and physicality alone. Unless we'd play Burris/Sheldon with Pavs to add some shooting, but that even further exacerbate that trio's defensive issues by asking Burris/Sheldon or Pavs to guard the other team's best guard.

I just don't see any way these lineups are sustainable for 20+ minutes a game unless the other team has multiple non-shooters on the floor at the same time as Simmons and Breath to not have to close-out to.

Agreed, and I think this has been the core issue for the last 3-4 years. Seems to be somewhat of an issue due to the new transfer/recruiting world we live in, but also hasn't felt to me like Boals has been willing to try many different combinations for a better fit throughout seasons. Feels like he tends to try to let the best 5 figure out how best to play together by March, rather than putting the best fit of 5 out there from the start. I can see his thinking because all that matters is 3 days in March, so you hope your best 5 figure it out enough to reach the absolute maximum potential of the roster, but it hasn't worked out that way recently.

Sure, the typical MAC 4 would struggle to defend Simmons 1-on-1, and a MAC 3 would struggle to defend Hadaway 1-on-1. Problem is, in our scenario, there are 5 guys on the court for each team at all times. That means if Simmons is posting up a 4, Breath has to be somewhere. If he's on the other side of the paint as the ball, the defending 5-man can double/help easily. If Breath is spaced out, no 5 man is going to close out hard to him on the perimeter, making it easy for him to double/help. Even worse would be when Hadaway is posting up. Where would Simmons and Breath be? If they are in the post, no room for Hadaway. If they are on the perimeter, no opposing defense is letting Hadaway get to the rim to make sure they close out to our non-shooting 4 and 5 men. I don't care how good your passing is, if there is no room to put pressure on the rim, and your kickout options can't shoot, it won't work.

I'm not saying there are no positives involved. Offensive rebounding would surely have to be the strong suit, and I'd agree that we'd be much more physical than any team we'd face. I just don't think the spacing would be there to score enough points to compete.

And our defense would not be good, no matter how much our rebounding would improve. We may not even have to rebound with that group on the floor if they can't stay in front of people. It could be layup lines.

Again, I do hope we actually try it and that I'm proven wrong. Maybe Simmons can shoot enough from the perimeter to keep a defense honest. And maybe Hadaway and Simmons can defend the least threatening shooters on the other team and we can get away with being a little less athletic on defense. It could work in certain situations or against certain teams. I just have doubts that we'd win 3 games in Cleveland with that lineup being used often.

Evan Miyakawa has some OBPR, DBPR, and BPR projections up for the coming season.

For those unfamiliar, OBPR/DBPR/BPR try and measure a player's offensive/defensive/overall value. Takes into account the quality of opponents and teammates and the numbers are value compared to the average D1 player. No idea the methodology for projecting freshman.

Here's how our roster projects (OBPR/DBPR/BPR). First number is their rank in the MAC:

5. Javan Simmons (2.69 / 0.01 / 2.67)
22. Pavs (2.27 / 0.54 / 1.72)
26. Hadaway (1.12 / 0.35 / 1.46)
32. Sheldon (0.71 / 0.15 / 0.87)
42. Breath (-0.39 / 0.69 / 0.30)
67. Elliot (-0.26 / -0.26 / -0.53)
71. Conners (0.78 / -1.35 / -0.57)
83. Burris (-0.38 / -0.35 / -0.73)
85. Kuany (-0.66 / -0.09 / -0.75)
102. Reese (0.54 / -0.37 / -0.91)
104. Kelly (-0.55 / -0.37 / -0.92)
107. Jordan Fisher (-0.59 / -0.37 / -0.95)
131. Ayden Evans (-1.20 / -0.19 / -1.39)

Sheldon's numbers are boosted by really good assist:turnover ratios and good steal rates. He's basically terrible at everything else.

I don't think it's hate, exactly. More that he's a known quantity as a senior and people are a little surprised at how prominently he factors into the rotation this year. I think a lot of people here really like Sheldon in a supporting role, but worry in a more prominent role some of his shortcomings are going to be bigger problems.

That said, I think we've got surprisingly few options and a bet on Sheldon's shooting is probably higher probability than betting on Burris's defense or one of the freshman being starter-caliber right off the bat.