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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: OT: Bracketology and how far has the MAC fallen
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100%Cat
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Posted: 2/27/2014 4:27 PM
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http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Really?  Western looked at as a 16 seed?  That's sad to me.  Very sad.
Dexcat
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Posted: 2/27/2014 4:39 PM
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Also had Mercer as a 14 seed, who OU beat. Delaware also not a good team on paper either. If any team but WMU gets the nod, I'd expect it to be a lot better seed. 
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 2/27/2014 4:56 PM
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So much of that has to do with WMU being in first place after having a so-so non-conference showing. Also, you can always count on several teams with lower RPIs winning their conference tournaments and replacing the ones there are slotted a seed or two or three ahead of the Broncos (and thereby moving them up).
TheBobcatBandit
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Posted: 2/27/2014 5:03 PM
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If they're a 16 seed the system is broken. honestly with our conference RPI this year at the lowest the MAC champ should be a 13. At the lowest. I think a 10 11 would be suitable
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/27/2014 5:10 PM
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TheBobcatBandit wrote:expand_more
If they're a 16 seed the system is broken. honestly with our conference RPI this year at the lowest the MAC champ should be a 13. At the lowest. I think a 10 11 would be suitable


Good luck with this.
Hawaiian Bobcat
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Posted: 2/27/2014 5:13 PM
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So IF and that is a BIG IF we win in Cleveland do we get a #16 seed play in game?
OhioStunter
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Posted: 2/27/2014 6:40 PM
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According to that site, WMU's RPI is 96. The other non-play-in #16 is Davidson at 146. The other #15s are at 95, 106, 121 and 92. So if seeding is predominantly based on RPI, a #16 seed for a team with a 96 RPI is not THAT far off from others seeded around that area.

Ohio's RPI is much better, so even though they won't be a #1 seed in the MAC tourney, they'd likely end up with a higher RPI than WMU and receive a better seed if they were to advance to the NCAA tourney.

 
Last Edited: 2/27/2014 6:41:59 PM by OhioStunter
Brufus
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Posted: 2/27/2014 7:40 PM
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100%Cat wrote:expand_more
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Really?  Western looked at as a 16 seed?  That's sad to me.  Very sad.


This is the first time I've seen Joe pick WMU as the MAC champ, he's had Toledo as a 13-14 seed for the last few weeks...
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/27/2014 7:56 PM
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I would call this as a sign of how far Bracketology has fallen, but then it would have needed to be good to began with...

Bracketologists are kinda really, really terrible at forecasting the 10-16 seeds until Selection Sunday rolls around and they get a clear view of who all the auto-qualifiers are. There are just too many variables to do it accurately at this point and too much crazy stuff happens in the conference tournaments. 
There are enough bad conferences below the MAC that there is no way WMU would be a 16 seed. Even a 15 seed for them is incredibly unlikely.

I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised with how the MAC is seeded this year.
OhioStunter
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Posted: 2/27/2014 8:02 PM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
I would call this as a sign of how far Bracketology has fallen, but then it would have needed to be good to began with...

Bracketologists are kinda really, really terrible at forecasting the 10-16 seeds until Selection Sunday rolls around and they get a clear view of who all the auto-qualifiers are. There are just too many variables to do it accurately at this point and too much crazy stuff happens in the conference tournaments. 
There are enough bad conferences below the MAC that there is no way WMU would be a 16 seed. Even a 15 seed for them is incredibly unlikely.

I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised with how the MAC is seeded this year.

Agreed on the forecasting. What drove me nuts last year was that literally minutes after talking to the players that won the NCAA tournament, Andy Katz begin talking about who should be #1 in NEXT year's polls. For the love of Jim Nance, please let these players enjoy this one shining moment before you try to predict the meaningless order of next season's overblown pre-season poll.

 
perimeterpost
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Posted: 2/27/2014 8:15 PM
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isn't this whole thing automated throughout the season? Don't they just take the top teams and rank them by RPI? I don't think any human actively selected 16 for WMU, I just think that's where they fell based on the automation.

WMU still has to play Toledo in the regular season and would likely face two more top 100 RPI teams in Cleveland which will help their RPI and resume. Currently they have 5 top 100 wins and only 3 non 100 losses. In spite of a stronger conference schedule I see WMU doing no better than 13 if they win out. 6-5 in OOC with 3 wins vs 320+ RPI teams isn't going to get them a 10 or 11 seed.
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 2/27/2014 11:33 PM
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Lots of confusion in this thread. 

Joe Lunardi typically doesn't pick auto-bids for bracketology. WMU is likely in by default since they are in 1st place in the MAC. 

Conferences don't get seeds, teams do. WMU being forecasted as a 16 seed has nothing to do with the MAC and everything to do with WMU. 

Conference tournaments have upsets, not every top seed wins their tournament. A lot of the conferences below the MAC have one strong team and then not much else. The MAC has 0 strong teams, but 5 or 6 very solid teams in a tight pack. When there are upsets in the smaller conferences the teams who pull the upsets will be slated in the NCAA tournament as 15 and 16 seeds. *If* there is an *upset* in the MAC by a team like Buffalo or us then we will likely get a 13 or 14 seed depending on the teams around us. 

The MAC is actually having its finest season in a while. As a conference we have an RPI of 12. Up from 18th last year, 17th in 2012, 20th in 2011, 16th in 2010, and 21st in 2009. 
 
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