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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Two bids for the MAC?
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Pataskala
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Posted: 3/15/2014 5:53 PM
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If WMU wins tonight, the MAC has a very good shot at two bids for the NCAA tourney.  Toledo has a 35 RPI and a loss to WMU (low 80s RPI according to ESPN and CBS) likely wouldn't hurt them that much.  They would probably have to drop more than 15 places in order to lose out.  They don't have a real signature OOC win (they beat a BC team and lost a fairly close to Kansas) but they beat good Cleveland St, Stony Brook Mr. Morris teams.
The Optimist
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Posted: 3/15/2014 6:17 PM
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Toledo's resume is interesting. Top 40 RPI, winning record against Top 100 and not many loses. As you mentioned, the lack of any Top 50 wins is really going to be the issue that would keep them out, but only 1 "knock" on their resume is better than a lot of the MAC's potential at-large teams the last decade.

I think they are firmly on the bubble.

I am rooting for WMU tonight just because I want to see Toledo get an at-large.
ts1227
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Posted: 3/15/2014 6:46 PM
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Absolutely no chance
JSF
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Posted: 3/15/2014 6:55 PM
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Toledo's not even on the bubble. Don't get your hopes up.
tevis48
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Posted: 3/15/2014 7:10 PM
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I'm pretty curious about Toldeo's chances. It's true that almost every bracketologist has completely written off their chances for a month now, but this bubble is truly awful and there are so few "bid-stealers" out there at this late hour. I wonder just how far off the cut line the Rockets really are?

If Toledo loses, I'd suggest looking at this site after it's updated tonight. It gives a good sense of the varying opinions of many bracket "experts". http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Last Edited: 3/15/2014 7:14:43 PM by tevis48
The Optimist
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Posted: 3/15/2014 7:37 PM
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I like looking at that site. Most of the national experts are completely terrible right until 1 hour before the selection show.

The selection committee has been pretty good about letting in mid-majors the last couple years, IMO. Toledo just doesn't have the quality wins though...
cbarber357
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Posted: 3/15/2014 7:46 PM
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Either of these teams has a better shot of winning some ncaa games than Akron or us this year. I think next year if people mesh well we'll be a force
FearLeon
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Posted: 3/15/2014 8:19 PM
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Not a chance.
Who did they beat?
Chicken George
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Posted: 3/15/2014 8:21 PM
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NCAA At-Large Motto for MAC:  "When in doubt, count us out."  
FearLeon
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Posted: 3/15/2014 8:30 PM
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14 seed for Western Michigan is my guess. 
Hello NIT for Toledo...schedule and beat some decent mid-majors next year then you can be discussed as a bubble team. 
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 3/15/2014 9:17 PM
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Agree, 14 seed for WMU and Toledo has really no shot at making the tourney. 
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/15/2014 10:11 PM
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I disagree that there is "no chance"...But the blowout nature of the loss tonight hurts an already weak chance.  I think things would be different if they could've survived at NIU a couple weeks ago.

I'm not saying it is likely, but it is possible.
FearLeon
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Posted: 3/16/2014 9:33 AM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
I disagree that there is "no chance"...But the blowout nature of the loss tonight hurts an already weak chance.  I think things would be different if they could've survived at NIU a couple weeks ago.

I'm not saying it is likely, but it is possible.


You can't lose to NIU that late in the season and then get crushed in your own Championship game. 
Interesting how UT coach sort of threw Rian Pearson under the bus after the game.
I hope Western proves me wrong, but I've never been less interested by a school representing the MAC in the big dance. They do deserve to be there however. 
Last Edited: 3/16/2014 9:35:11 AM by FearLeon
nam1975
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Posted: 3/16/2014 10:06 AM
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MAC w 2 teams, nah.

Maybe this year if the finals were a good game or buzzer beater.

My mid major teams that I pick to win a game or two normally have a very good PG.
Western does not, but their 2 guard big guy combo is pretty tough.

Toledo is not a real good team on D, based on the few games I watched vs OU and the tourney.


Western gets Georgetown in the 1st round, Broncos win!!



cbarber357
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Posted: 3/16/2014 12:05 PM
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USA Today has Toledo as a first 5 out, which means they could make it.
Pataskala
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Posted: 3/16/2014 12:10 PM
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Yeah, the blowout last night probably killed any chances Toledo had to get into the NCAA tourney.  Their RPI is still very good (37) but their BPI -- which takes into account final score -- ballooned from an ok 76 to 88.
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Posted: 3/16/2014 1:32 PM
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2014 Toledo reminds me a lot of 1995 Ohio. The resume seems just good enough to create significant disappointment around 6:30 tonight.
genessee
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Posted: 3/16/2014 2:24 PM
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An RPI of better than 40 should get a team in, no ifs ands or buts. The "weak" schedule, bad loss, lack of a signature win, etc. are already represented in their RPI.

Lots of major conference teams with RPIs far worse than Toledo's will get in. That's not right. Either RPI a good measure or it's not. If it is, use it. If not, quit referring to it and find a better method than a subjective committee that will favor the major conferences..

They should be in, but I'm not convinced that they will be.
JSF
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Posted: 3/16/2014 3:18 PM
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RPI is not a major factor when it comes to selecting at-large teams. They look at who you played, who you went on the road against, and the quality of opponents you beat and lost to.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 3/16/2014 3:29 PM
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Toledo's only quality non conference win is Cleveland State and the only quality MAC team Toledo beat without also losing to is Akron. Add in a bad loss to NIU and the resume just isn't strong enough, in spite of the record.
The Optimist
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Posted: 3/16/2014 4:11 PM
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I have been saying this all year, but I really don't think the NCAA is all that difficult to get into anymore. You don't need anywhere close to a perfect resume with the field at 68.

When you look at the resumes of the "last four in" from the last couple years it is really eye-opening just how bad you can be and still get an at-large.
JSF
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Posted: 3/16/2014 4:41 PM
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And yet we've never been close to an at-large since the expansion.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 3/16/2014 7:47 PM
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The MAC will get two bids.
The 'Cats will announce membership in a new conference tomorrow, an AQ conference.
The Tea Party will help the Republicans dominate national political offices and their ideology will be accepted by a majority of Americans, especially the next generation of voters and immigrant populations.
The sun will rise in the west tomorrow.
Bobcat football last season deserved nothing but praise.
Over one thousand people will give a rip about 'kron, kents and redhawk sports next season.
Travelling will be called in the NBA.



 
The Pessimist
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Posted: 3/17/2014 9:54 AM
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... And Monroe will shame me into changing my board name.
GoCats105
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Posted: 3/17/2014 2:41 PM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
I have been saying this all year, but I really don't think the NCAA is all that difficult to get into anymore. You don't need anywhere close to a perfect resume with the field at 68.

When you look at the resumes of the "last four in" from the last couple years it is really eye-opening just how bad you can be and still get an at-large.


Your logic may be true for a power conference team, but not a conference like the MAC. It's really easy to make the NCAA Tournament in a power conference team as long as win 20+ games, a few of those on the road, and avoid bad losses, especially at home. While the RPI used to be a solid number for judging the strength of teams, the power conferences have more or less vanquished it's usefulness by their unwillingness to play outside of their own arena against a midmajor.
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