Back up we go!!!

Richmond beat a good St Joe's team at home today. That may put them in the Top 50. EMU was top 50 but I think home loses against Akron and Ohio (even with both being Top 100) will push them down towards 70ish...

As far as the RPI is concerned, Oakland and BG are not completely terrible loses. Oakland is Top 200 and BG is Top 150...

Most of our OOC opponents are playing pretty well in conference play. A lot of wins...

Not 100% good news... Northern Iowa suffered another bad road loss today. MVC life on the road in full swing this year.

As of right now, Akron is a Top 100 loss as far as the RPI is concerned. Losing at home to our rival in double OT is obviously painful but that simply isn't as bad of a loss as it is being made out to be.

I don't think there has really been a good look at the numbers since we entered the "modern era" of the NCAA Tournament at 68 teams instead of 64 or 65.

Those extra slots make a difference in the teams that make the tournament.

If you look at the "last four in" since we went to 68 (2011, 2012 and 2013) it shows that with your RPI right near 40, you are at the very least on the bubble.

We are currently 14-5 and if we can finish the regular season without too many more loses, I think our RPI would be around 40. I am not saying we will avoid the loses we need to.... But IF we do, we are going to have a pretty strong resume for the field of 68.

Edit: I also want to add that I am not arguing the RPI is all that matters.... But when I look at the other key factors, like our 14-5 record... Well, that is pretty good. We haven't had many 14-5 seasons since I have followed Ohio basketball.

I am looking at math. FWIW, all of the RPI rankings I am looking at have us at 81, not 86.

Our schedule is simply a lot better than many on this board are giving it credit for. While it lacked the big names some crave, the teams we did play are winning games. Overall the MAC is having a MUCH better year than we have seen for most of the last decade. A couple RPI top 100 teams and most are not below 200 which is preventing the "drag" we have seen in past years.
eck, Toledo is Top 50 right now. Win or lose, just playing them Saturday will help the SOS calculation in our RPI calculations...

It isn't just the RPI... The Pomeroy and Saragin both like this Ohio team as well... They aren't quite as high on the MAC as the RPI is, but they both think pretty highly of the Mercer and Richmond wins.

Edit:

With the exception of CMU tomorrow, I don't believe we have any more games (at this point) against any teams below 200 in the RPI...

A win over Toledo would help, that's for sure. But look at the rest of the MAC. Those numbers will not get it done. If you think we're getting an at-large, think again.

80	Ohio	4-2	13-5	0.5513	154	0.5018
	87	Akron	5-1	13-6	0.5484	163	0.4975
	124	Buffalo	4-2	9-6	0.5254	191	0.4884
	141	Miami (OH)	4-2	8-8	0.5158	183	0.4917
	171	Bowling Green	3-3	8-10	0.5003	104	0.5264
	184	Kent St.	2-4	10-8	0.4918	200	0.4850
West Division
	34	Toledo	5-1	16-2	0.6123	142	0.5088
	60	East. Michigan	3-3	8-8	0.5743	7	0.5991
	153	West. Michigan	4-2	10-7	0.5094	208	0.4820
	219	Northern Illinois	1-5	6-11	0.4653	146	0.5055
	286	Cent. Michigan	0-6	5-11	0.4265	243	0.4677
	301	Ball St.	1-5	2-13	0.4154	118	0.5211

Yesterday was disastrous from the RPI standpoint... We played one of the 3 MAC teams whose RPI is so bad it will drag us down with a win while UMass, Richmond and Ohio State all lost. The lone good news is that Valpo picked up a very good win over Green Bay.

I don't think we will get an at-large because I don't think we can win all the games we need to coming into the toughest part of our MAC schedule.

However, I am glad you posted the MAC RPI list Giacomo... Now that CMU is out of the way, we don't play anyone lower than Kent at 184. Games against teams between 100-200 isn't bad. Win those and the RPI likes that. We also have 2 games remaining against a Top 50 (Toledo) and another against a top 100 team (Akron) and there is a solid chance Buffalo (2 games against) could sneak up to the Top 100 themselves.

From the RPI standpoint, the MAC did us a huge favor in scheduling Toledo twice and WMU twice. We avoided the lowlifes of the MAC West who would have killed our RPI.

Again, I don't think we win all these games but if we do, a Top 50 RPI is not only possible, it is likely. Top 50 in the RPI and 25 wins gives you a shot at an at-large in the 68 team field.

Honestly, looking at the math I think we could be Top 50 RPI even if we drop one game, although that becomes less likely if Richmond, OSU and UMass start losing too much. But the BG loss really killed our wiggle room.

Optimist=Dreamer

Just hope we win ALL MAC games in march!

Read up on RPI a little bit and you'll find out.

Just because a team is ranked below you in RPI doesn't mean you can't move up by defeating them. Other teams ranked above you lose all of the time. Plus, previous wins/losses improve/worsen RPI all of the time based on how those teams finish out. Secondary teams, opponents opponents come into play as well. There's a lot to it.

Ohio is going to play Toledo (30) twice, Akron again which is in the top 100 and Buffalo twice (which could rise into top 100).

It's very easy to see how Ohio's RPI could rise near 60 and why a mathematical website devoted to RPI calculations expects them to finish around there based on their current projections.

Need wins. 

What works against us, for example, is a game like yesterday's Indiana-Michigan game. Middle of the pack Big Ten teams, and other power conferences get to play mostly a round robin ( with some exceptions) schedule. Hence, Indiana gets a big win at home and greatly improves their at-large chances. That kind of win trumps what we can do in the MAC at this time of the year.

We are still at 80 and Toledo is at 29 after Saturday's win. It appears the only reason is their non-conference strength of schedule. They played Kansas who is now number one.

Jeff, the one I looked up had those numbers I quoted. It wasn't the overall strength of schedule, it was the out of conference strength of schedule that appears to be the difference. Otherwise, we trump them in most other categories, including now head to head.

We must win the regular season title and get to the title game. That gives us something to the show the committee that we were the best regular season team from the MAC. Our SOS non-conference was weak compared to other at-large teams, so we will need a little help. Running the table and finishing 16-2 in a league like the MAC would open some eyes. We aren't that good and its not going to happen, but it we did do that 16-2 putting us 25-5 as regular season champion would look pretty good compared to the teams on the bubble.  Two wins over Toledo and a strong finish by Richmond and Mercer could put us with 4 top 50 wins. We do have a better non-conference resume that the three times we won the MAC tournament in recent years. We win the regular season and reach the title game we may have a case. A small case, but its one that were may get a glance when compared to the likes of Illinois which has ZERO top fifty wins so far and dead last in its conference right now and didn't really  play a strong non-conference slate. Right now Ohio has a better at-large chance than Illinois.