They can't be defined as employees by the IRS if you don't pay them. No exchange of goods for services.
Too bad NCAA decided to pay them. Bad decision.
I mean, sure -- in as much as settling a massive anti-trust suit is a "decision." The courts have been making clear for fifteen years now that the NCAA's business model was illegal and violated anti-trust policy; the NCAA didn't do much about it but spend more on lawyers.
Was there another option?
I have no doubt they'll be considered employees by lawyers soon.
And then the house of cards fully crumbles and college sports ceases to exist as we know it.
Good times.
I'd put this at 50/50, though it sort of depends how you define "soon." The path out of this involves NCAA-specific legislation, and I think we'll get it within the next 12 months.
It'll either involve the athletes being employees, but with carve outs for things like minimum wage, benefits, etc. and a comp structure that's entirely determined by a CBA around revenue share (a la the NBA, etc), or a non-employee approach that creates a separate class altogether, specifically for the NCAA. My guess is that as long as enough of the money's flowing to the right people, the second option's more likely.
I just fail to see how anybody's interests are served by letting a cultural institution that creates billions of dollars in revenue annually crumble.