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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Plus/Minus
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Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/15/2015 9:45 PM
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Thought I would post the much debated plus/minus stats for the year. Statsheet.com keeps track of it, but 3 Bobcat games did not have the data available so I manually computed them. So consider it unofficial and subject to error, but here they are thru 1/14:

Ndour 40
R Taylor -2
Setty -8
Laster -12
Willis -12
S Taylor -15
Campbell -25
Mompremier -44
Harley -60
Crabtree 0
Williams 0
Frayer -2

That is a testament to Ndour and shows how we struggle with him out. And it is all kinds of damning for Mompremier & Harley. The only one that surprises me a bit is Campbell, though that could be a product of the low minutes he had early on versus the weaker opponents.
JSF
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Posted: 1/15/2015 11:16 PM
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I once tried to compile a five-man plus/minus, but the game transcripts were not accurate enough.
RSBobcat
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Posted: 1/16/2015 1:12 AM
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Not really surprised except by Campbell but you may have what the main issue is.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/16/2015 8:38 AM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
I once tried to compile a five-man plus/minus, but the game transcripts were not accurate enough.
There were a couple moments that didn't make sense but for the most part it seemed to jive with the minutes played. Doing one game is not much of an undertaking, but going back and doing it for an entire season would be a challenge.

Keying in on our most recent game, it really jives with what I would expect and is why I always bring it up as something with value. Ndour was +5 and Campbell +2, everyone else was minus. The foul trouble really hurt.
OUVan
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Posted: 1/16/2015 8:55 AM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Keying in on our most recent game, it really jives with what I would expect and is why I always bring it up as something with value. Ndour was +5 and Campbell +2, everyone else was minus. The foul trouble really hurt.
Would love to see what their numbers are when they are on the court together.
Granger's Towel
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Posted: 1/16/2015 9:02 AM
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Frayer really holding the team back...
OU_Country
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Posted: 1/16/2015 10:35 AM
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I would be curious to see a couple things to put this in context:



1) +/- for Stevie, Mo, Bean from last year along side Travis, Nick, Ricardo, TJ Hall, Smith, etc.


2) +/- for the team from 2012-2013, the team many of us expected to be OUr best team in years, that many called a massive disappointment.
JSF
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Posted: 1/16/2015 12:09 PM
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Ergo, five-man plus/minus. That's a really telling stat.

Plus/minus has more value with you remove pace and compare it to when they're on the bench. Even more when you separate it into offense and defense.
GoCats105
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Posted: 1/16/2015 1:14 PM
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Some other telling stats:

The total team TO/game is actually lower than I expected, 12.8. Which isn't terrible when compared to 350+ other teams. So with as many bad decisions we've seen thus far, the TOs have been kept relatively low.

The team assist/TO ratio however is an abysmal 0.91. That usually equates to a lot of one-on-one basketball and guys just standing around instead of moving/cutting/screening while the guy with ball just dribbles the air out of it.
Casper71
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Posted: 1/16/2015 1:38 PM
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Yep, and that gets back to just what is the offensive philosophy SP is trying to implement? I haven't seen enough to figure it out. Is it motion? Is it pick n roll? Is it screens to get players open? And, if it is something like any of those why are players going 1v1 so much?

And, I don't doubt these guys are putting effort into practices and games. They are just not playing SMART or FOCUSED basketball. Someone needs to get their attention quick or this season is gonna be a long one.
JSF
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Posted: 1/16/2015 2:20 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Some other telling stats:

The total team TO/game is actually lower than I expected, 12.8. Which isn't terrible when compared to 350+ other teams. So with as many bad decisions we've seen thus far, the TOs have been kept relatively low.
Good call. We're 66th in the nation in TO rate.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 2/20/2015 9:45 AM
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Updated numbers:

Ndour -32
R Taylor -38
Mompremier -38
S Taylor -49
Campbell -47
Setty -56
Laster -58
Willis -59
Harley -76

Crabtree -6
Thomas -8
Williams -8
Frayer -10

Doesn't show a whole lot as the range is not real high. Still quite damning for Harley in limited minutes (and that is WITH him actually ending up +1 in the @EMU blood bath). But could be a product of him being the guy that enters when things are going poorly to mix it up (and then it continues poorly).

Ndour was +59 in non-conf and -91 in conference. He has seen a lot more double teams in the MAC and the rest of the guys on the floor have not taken advantage of it.
OU_Country
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Posted: 2/20/2015 10:03 AM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
Some other telling stats:

The total team TO/game is actually lower than I expected, 12.8. Which isn't terrible when compared to 350+ other teams. So with as many bad decisions we've seen thus far, the TOs have been kept relatively low.
Good call. We're 66th in the nation in TO rate.

That ranking is higher, but the number is nearly the same at 13.0. They're quite low in the rate of turnovers forced over the season at 11.1, and the in conference margin is -3.25. Assuming the opponent converts points into turnovers half the time, you're talking the difference of may 4-5 ppg right there. Ouch.




In terms of the Plus/Minus, I'd be curious to put this year's team up against last year's or the year before just for comparison.
Last Edited: 2/20/2015 10:04:48 AM by OU_Country
OUVan
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Posted: 2/20/2015 10:11 AM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
The total team TO/game is actually lower than I expected, 12.8. Which isn't terrible when compared to 350+ other teams. So with as many bad decisions we've seen thus far, the TOs have been kept relatively low.
For the most part the bad decisions are bad shot selection not bad passing decisions. At least not aggressive bad passing. Passing slowly around the perimeter leads to easily defended shots but also very few turnovers. Turnovers happen when you actually are trying to create. Which is why Mo's turnovers are so high. He rarely touches the ball within 15 feet of the basket.
Casper71
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Posted: 2/20/2015 1:31 PM
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In my opinion our problem is not turnovers. We just have guards who love to dribble dribble and shoot shoot shoot and never pass the ball to an open player for the assist. Way too much 1 V1 play and not enough team play
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 2/20/2015 1:36 PM
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Here is another advanced metric shown. Box plus/minus according to basketball-reference is an estimate of the points a player contributes above (or below) a league average player on a league average team.

Baseball fans out there think of it like WAR but for basketball.

Ndour 3.1
Campbell 0.4
Bean 0.2
Setty -1.3
R Taylor -1.5
Stevie -3.4
Harley -4.1
Mompremier -4.4
Laster -5.2


Here is what we looked like in 2014

Jon Smith 6.6
Kellogg 4.5
Ndour 2.0
Wilkins 1.0
Campbell -0.9
Ricardo -0.9
TJ -1.1
Stevie -1.1
Bean -2.4
Treg -3.2
Wadly -10.8

Bonus from last year:

Kaminski 8.5
(4th highest on MSU)

Jaaron Simmons -6.8


Note: There are some issues with this stat so take it with a grain of salt.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 2/20/2015 3:37 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
For the most part the bad decisions are bad shot selection not bad passing decisions. . . .
I'm not so sure. In the most recent CMU game we were getting open shot after open shot, but we were not hitting. I will agree that some of our players routinely make bad decisions in terms of shot selection, but as a whole I think the team does fairly well in this regard, it's just that at key times we can't make shots. I also think our dribbling is a problem as we often get ourselves in the corner and doubled teamed and we have a lot of trouble getting the ball up the court when we are pressed. People complain that Ndour doesn't get the ball down low enough; however, I've seen many times when a player tries to get the ball to him inside but the pass is intercepted. Bottom line: This team has no chemistry.
GoCats105
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Posted: 2/20/2015 3:44 PM
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bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:expand_more
Here is another advanced metric shown. Box plus/minus according to basketball-reference is an estimate of the points a player contributes above (or below) a league average player on a league average team.

Baseball fans out there think of it like WAR but for basketball.

Ndour 3.1
Campbell 0.4
Bean 0.2
Setty -1.3
R Taylor -1.5
Stevie -3.4
Harley -4.1
Mompremier -4.4
Laster -5.2


Here is what we looked like in 2014

Jon Smith 6.6
Kellogg 4.5
Ndour 2.0
Wilkins 1.0
Campbell -0.9
Ricardo -0.9
TJ -1.1
Stevie -1.1
Bean -2.4
Treg -3.2
Wadly -10.8

Bonus from last year:

Kaminski 8.5
(4th highest on MSU)

Jaaron Simmons -6.8


Note: There are some issues with this stat so take it with a grain of salt.
Interested to see how this is calculated. You have a link?
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 2/21/2015 11:35 AM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Interested to see how this is calculated. You have a link?
Here you go.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
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