Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Prospects for the Dance and NIT
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Pataskala
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Posted: 3/6/2016 11:13 AM
Based on RPI, if Ohio beats Akron for the MAC championship, the MAC might get two bids to the NCAA. CBS has Akron with a 34 RPI and Ohio at 81, which means losing to Ohio shouldn't hurt Akron's RPI that much. With SMU and L'ville ineligible for postseason, and 12 conferences with no team having an RPI less than 70, the RPI cutoff for the Dance would be around 58 (68+2-12). Akron could sneak in even with a loss to Ohio; losing to anybody else would probably keep them out, since the rest of the MAC is above 100 RPI. A lot depends on what happens in the other conf tourneys.

If Ohio were to lose to Akron in the championship game, the NIT is a real possibility. Ohio has a good RPI, is a well-known program and is an interesting story with the turnaround from last year. Plus Ohio would be a good matchup with Mich and/or O$U, who will likely get NIT bids. Getting to the MACCG is important.
Eagle66
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Posted: 3/6/2016 11:42 AM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Based on RPI, if Ohio beats Akron for the MAC championship, the MAC might get two bids to the NCAA. CBS has Akron with a 34 RPI and Ohio at 81, which means losing to Ohio shouldn't hurt Akron's RPI that much. With SMU and L'ville ineligible for postseason, and 12 conferences with no team having an RPI less than 70, the RPI cutoff for the Dance would be around 58 (68+2-12). Akron could sneak in even with a loss to Ohio; losing to anybody else would probably keep them out, since the rest of the MAC is above 100 RPI. A lot depends on what happens in the other conf tourneys.

If Ohio were to lose to Akron in the championship game, the NIT is a real possibility. Ohio has a good RPI, is a well-known program and is an interesting story with the turnaround from last year. Plus Ohio would be a good matchup with Mich and/or O$U, who will likely get NIT bids. Getting to the MACCG is important.
I don't think Akron has any chance at an at large bid. They are 0-1 against the top 50. Their best wins after Ohio are UCSB and Iona. Those are the only top 100 wins they have. Their best road win right now is at 16-14 Arkansas (RPI 111). I just don't see an at large resume, outside of a good RPI.

Edit: For reference, the bottom of this link has the teams who made the NIT (and CBI / CIT) last year. http://bracketmatrix.com/nit
Last Edited: 3/6/2016 12:07:38 PM by Eagle66
Athens
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Posted: 3/6/2016 12:16 PM
From that site, the highest RPI schools not to make the NIT were #82 for the CIT and #89 for the CBI. There is a real chance of Ohio making the NIT if they make the MAC Final. CUSA and Horizon I can't see scoring at large bids to the NIT this year with the way those conferences are ranked.
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 3/6/2016 12:49 PM
RPI is only a small portion of the selection process, not anywhere close to the most important factor.

Akron has 0% chance at an at-large bid, especially with another loss. Here's a link to the bracketmatrix which combs all bracket sites out there: http://www.bracketmatrix.com /

They are about 11 spots out right now, no room to make that up by going 2-1 in the MAC tournament.
bornacatfan
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Posted: 3/6/2016 12:59 PM
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:expand_more
RPI is only a small portion of the selection process, not anywhere close to the most important factor.

Akron has 0% chance at an at-large bid, especially with another loss. Here's a link to the bracketmatrix which combs all bracket sites out there: http://www.bracketmatrix.com /

They are about 11 spots out right now, no room to make that up by going 2-1 in the MAC tournament.
Excellent resource bt. I laughed the other day when I read the Kron board and the comments regarding At Large spots. The committee really punishes you for the scheduling... Shaheen and the guys who have been inside the room keep saying it and certain schools keep ignoring it. Even with our AD in the room there is not a chance
Athens
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Posted: 3/6/2016 1:03 PM
Akron was only 13-5 in the MAC. With an undefeated conference record or one loss they'd have a more compelling resume.
oldkatz
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Posted: 3/6/2016 1:30 PM
Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
Akron was only 13-5 in the MAC. With an undefeated conference record or one loss they'd have a more compelling resume.
But if the committee reads the Dispatch, that undefeated record might just.........oh, wait.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 3/6/2016 4:14 PM
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:expand_more
RPI is only a small portion of the selection process, not anywhere close to the most important factor.

Akron has 0% chance at an at-large bid, especially with another loss. Here's a link to the bracketmatrix which combs all bracket sites out there: http://www.bracketmatrix.com /

They are about 11 spots out right now, no room to make that up by going 2-1 in the MAC tournament.
RPI is exactly as important as the committee wants it to be when it justifies the team they want.
stub
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Posted: 3/6/2016 5:08 PM
I've heard that there's no computer once they get to the final pool and rpi is not considered. They're interested in how good are the teams you beat and where you beat them, bad losses to non-tourney teams, and how that all matches up with the other teams being considered.
Ohio69
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Posted: 3/6/2016 6:05 PM
Vegas 16 is way better than the resource sucking NIT, CBI, and CIT.

A MAC team as an at large? That's a good one.....
Last Edited: 3/6/2016 6:06:11 PM by Ohio69
The Optimist
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Posted: 3/6/2016 7:48 PM
Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
Vegas 16 is way better than the resource sucking NIT, CBI, and CIT.

A MAC team as an at large? That's a good one.....
It isn't "A MAC team as an at large" that is the problem... It is "An undeserving team as an at-large" that is the problem... Akron doesn't have the quality wins... Should a MAC team have the full resume, the MAC will get the at-large.
71 BOBCAT
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Posted: 3/6/2016 8:20 PM
The Optimist has articulated this topic correctly. Akron always scheduled cream puffs in their OOC schedule.
Also, because I can't help myself....,did anyone see their box score against Kent on Friday? McAdams went 0-8 from 3. As some great philosopher stated..."YOU LIVE BY THE 3 YOU DIE BY THE 3".





GO BOBCATS
lovebobcat
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Posted: 3/6/2016 8:40 PM
When was the last MAC at-large? Wasn't it way back in the '90s?

As for RPI, I remember that in 1994-95 (Trent's last year) Ohio had about a 43 RPI, plus impressive non-conference wins over Ohio State and Virginia, but didn't get in. For the MAC to get an at-large, it will need someone to be in the top 35-40 and have several impressive high-RPI victories on its resume. No way it happens this year with Kron.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 3/6/2016 8:46 PM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
When was the last MAC at-large? Wasn't it way back in the '90s?

As for RPI, I remember that in 1994-95 (Trent's last year) Ohio had about a 43 RPI, plus impressive non-conference wins over Ohio State and Virginia, but didn't get in. For the MAC to get an at-large, it will need someone to be in the top 35-40 and have several impressive high-RPI victories on its resume. No way it happens this year with Kron.
Remember that ohio state was awful then. we were expected to win that game. Virginia, GW and NMSU were all better wins than osu. Even WVU was a better win and many of our MAC wins.
PhiTau74
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Posted: 3/6/2016 8:55 PM
And then there's the fact that Akron has NEVER won a game in the NCAA tournament.
Lande71
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Posted: 3/6/2016 9:13 PM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
When was the last MAC at-large? Wasn't it way back in the '90s?

As for RPI, I remember that in 1994-95 (Trent's last year) Ohio had about a 43 RPI, plus impressive non-conference wins over Ohio State and Virginia, but didn't get in. For the MAC to get an at-large, it will need someone to be in the top 35-40 and have several impressive high-RPI victories on its resume. No way it happens this year with Kron.
I'm "guessing" the last at-large was Miami with Wally. Seems to me Miami also had someone on the selection committee.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/6/2016 9:25 PM
Every time this topic comes up, there is the inevitable "haha yeah right, oh no this again, yada yada" responses. The thing people don't understand is the majority of the time, the team we are discussing ends up winning the tourney and we never find out if they would've received the at-large.
bobcat28
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Posted: 3/6/2016 9:25 PM
Akron has as much chance at getting an at large as our Managers team does.
Casper71
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Posted: 3/6/2016 9:35 PM
This is the BS of the selection process. In the past, an RPI of 40 or less got you in if you were a P5 conference member. Then, when a few non P5 schools got the RPI of less than 40 the genius selectors decided to say it was strength of schedule, or last 10 games or whatever they could find to limit mid majors.

I would say if you have an RPI of 34, you deserve to be in, I don't care if you are from the BIGG or MAC or any other conference.
Steve
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Posted: 3/6/2016 9:41 PM
I believe the last at-large was Miami and Wally when they lost to Kent in the title game. The 98-99 season? That was the first season Kent was good. I think that was the last season the tournament was in Toledo.
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Posted: 3/7/2016 11:39 AM
The MAC peaked in the late 90s.....they went back-to-back years with two teams

1999 - Kent, Miami
1998 - EMU, WMU

Other than that, there have only been three other MAC at-large teams:
1995 - Miami (beat Arizona in 1st Rd.....4-3 in OCC....16-2 in MAC...lost MAC Semis)
1986 - Miami (16-2 in MAC....5-3 OCC....lost MAC finals)*
1985 - Miami (3-4 in OOC....13-5 in MAC....lost in MAC Finals to Ohio)*
* had Ron Harper

1999 Miami (at-large) was 22-7. 5-3 in OOC
Ws (at Notre Dame, vs. Tennessee, vs. Dayton, San Diego (N), Boston U)
Ls (at Xavier, at UW-Green Bay, Fresno St (N))
15-3 in MAC & lost MAC title game
Had superstar in Wally
Advanced to Sweet 16

1998 WMU (at-large) was 20-7, 6-2 in OOC
Ws (at Michigan, vs. Indiana St, at Milwaukee, vs. Chicago St, Wright St, Charlotte (N))
Ls (at Detroit, Indiana (N))
14-4 in MAC & lost in 1st Rd MAC tourney
Beat Clemson in 1st Rd Tourney

All this shows me is that CBB is a much, much different game now. Way more teams and way more balance in the Power leagues. You now see B1G and Big East and ACC getting 7 or 8 teams in....that didn't used to be the case.

Those MAC at-large teams didn't have great OOC wins or even records.

If anyone in MAC put up exactly same numbers as WMU did in 1998 they wouldn't even be on the radar for an at-large bid. They beat an unranked Michigan team on the road in the season opener....that was their best win?!?

The reality is the MAC is a one-bid league unless they catch lightning in a bottle with a team. Someone would have to not only load up their schedule....they would have to get 2-3 marquee wins......at least 1 or 2 of them on the road (or worst case neutral site)......crack the Top 25.....stay there almost all season.....probably go no worse than 16-2 in the MAC.....and then lost in MAC title game. That's asking a lot!

Ohio had an opportunity to do that following the Sweet 16 season.....but loss at Oklahoma, at Memphis, at Belmont and at UMass derailed any shot. They were 14-2 in MAC and lost in MAC title game and were NOWHERE near at-large conversation even coming off the Sweet 16 of a year ago.

They had the right kind of schedule....just didn't get the results.

I'd love to see the league get to the point where they have a serious shot at an at-large berth....but it's going to take a special, special season for that to happen in today's CBB
Last Edited: 3/7/2016 11:41:09 AM by bshot44
greencat
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Posted: 3/7/2016 11:54 AM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
The MAC peaked in the late 90s.....they went back-to-back years with two teams

1999 - Kent, Miami
1998 - EMU, WMU

Other than that, there have only been three other MAC at-large teams:
1995 - Miami (beat Arizona in 1st Rd.....4-3 in OCC....16-2 in MAC...lost MAC Semis)
1986 - Miami (16-2 in MAC....5-3 OCC....lost MAC finals)*
1985 - Miami (3-4 in OOC....13-5 in MAC....lost in MAC Finals to Ohio)*
* had Ron Harper

1999 Miami (at-large) was 22-7. 5-3 in OOC
Ws (at Notre Dame, vs. Tennessee, vs. Dayton, San Diego (N), Boston U)
Ls (at Xavier, at UW-Green Bay, Fresno St (N))
15-3 in MAC & lost MAC title game
Had superstar in Wally
Advanced to Sweet 16

1998 WMU (at-large) was 20-7, 6-2 in OOC
Ws (at Michigan, vs. Indiana St, at Milwaukee, vs. Chicago St, Wright St, Charlotte (N))
Ls (at Detroit, Indiana (N))
14-4 in MAC & lost in 1st Rd MAC tourney
Beat Clemson in 1st Rd Tourney

All this shows me is that CBB is a much, much different game now. Way more teams and way more balance in the Power leagues. You now see B1G and Big East and ACC getting 7 or 8 teams in....that didn't used to be the case.

Those MAC at-large teams didn't have great OOC wins or even records.

If anyone in MAC put up exactly same numbers as WMU did in 1998 they wouldn't even be on the radar for an at-large bid. They beat an unranked Michigan team on the road in the season opener....that was their best win?!?

The reality is the MAC is a one-bid league unless they catch lightning in a bottle with a team. Someone would have to not only load up their schedule....they would have to get 2-3 marquee wins......at least 1 or 2 of them on the road (or worst case neutral site)......crack the Top 25.....stay there almost all season.....probably go no worse than 16-2 in the MAC.....and then lost in MAC title game. That's asking a lot!

Ohio had an opportunity to do that following the Sweet 16 season.....but loss at Oklahoma, at Memphis, at Belmont and at UMass derailed any shot. They were 14-2 in MAC and lost in MAC title game and were NOWHERE near at-large conversation even coming off the Sweet 16 of a year ago.

They had the right kind of schedule....just didn't get the results.

I'd love to see the league get to the point where they have a serious shot at an at-large berth....but it's going to take a special, special season for that to happen in today's CBB
The game at Belmont was on ESPN right? (Bracket Buster thing?)

I was there. It was embarrassing. Could JC have coached a worse game? He made Rick Byrd look like Greg Popovich. The N I T projection site I was looking at last night didn't even list Ohio as even a longshot. Too many automatic spots will have to be awarded to league reg season champs who choke in tourneys. Then you have the Florida/Alabama/Georgetown/Marquette former hoops powers kind of schools who will get the rest. And trendy Gonzaga of course will be invited.
OUVan
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Posted: 3/7/2016 1:31 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
When was the last MAC at-large? Wasn't it way back in the '90s?

As for RPI, I remember that in 1994-95 (Trent's last year) Ohio had about a 43 RPI, plus impressive non-conference wins over Ohio State and Virginia, but didn't get in. For the MAC to get an at-large, it will need someone to be in the top 35-40 and have several impressive high-RPI victories on its resume. No way it happens this year with Kron.
Remember that ohio state was awful then. we were expected to win that game. Virginia, GW and NMSU were all better wins than osu. Even WVU was a better win and many of our MAC wins.
Our 7-5 record down the stretch did us in in 1995. Once we lost Jeff Boals we weren't the same team. We didn't win the regular season title and we didn't make the conference tourney final. Really our entire resume was the Preseason NIT. And then Ball State won the tourney and completely doomed us because Miami had a much better resume than we did.
OUVan
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Posted: 3/7/2016 1:56 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
The MAC peaked in the late 90s.....they went back-to-back years with two teams
That was about the time that coaching salaries started to go up and the MAC didn't keep pace. The Missouri Valley and CAA started having programs really amp it up and we didn't and then had some pretty bad hires. The conference as a whole decided to put the money into football instead.
GoCats105
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Posted: 3/7/2016 2:13 PM
greencat wrote:expand_more
The MAC peaked in the late 90s.....they went back-to-back years with two teams

1999 - Kent, Miami
1998 - EMU, WMU

Other than that, there have only been three other MAC at-large teams:
1995 - Miami (beat Arizona in 1st Rd.....4-3 in OCC....16-2 in MAC...lost MAC Semis)
1986 - Miami (16-2 in MAC....5-3 OCC....lost MAC finals)*
1985 - Miami (3-4 in OOC....13-5 in MAC....lost in MAC Finals to Ohio)*
* had Ron Harper

1999 Miami (at-large) was 22-7. 5-3 in OOC
Ws (at Notre Dame, vs. Tennessee, vs. Dayton, San Diego (N), Boston U)
Ls (at Xavier, at UW-Green Bay, Fresno St (N))
15-3 in MAC & lost MAC title game
Had superstar in Wally
Advanced to Sweet 16

1998 WMU (at-large) was 20-7, 6-2 in OOC
Ws (at Michigan, vs. Indiana St, at Milwaukee, vs. Chicago St, Wright St, Charlotte (N))
Ls (at Detroit, Indiana (N))
14-4 in MAC & lost in 1st Rd MAC tourney
Beat Clemson in 1st Rd Tourney

All this shows me is that CBB is a much, much different game now. Way more teams and way more balance in the Power leagues. You now see B1G and Big East and ACC getting 7 or 8 teams in....that didn't used to be the case.

Those MAC at-large teams didn't have great OOC wins or even records.

If anyone in MAC put up exactly same numbers as WMU did in 1998 they wouldn't even be on the radar for an at-large bid. They beat an unranked Michigan team on the road in the season opener....that was their best win?!?

The reality is the MAC is a one-bid league unless they catch lightning in a bottle with a team. Someone would have to not only load up their schedule....they would have to get 2-3 marquee wins......at least 1 or 2 of them on the road (or worst case neutral site)......crack the Top 25.....stay there almost all season.....probably go no worse than 16-2 in the MAC.....and then lost in MAC title game. That's asking a lot!

Ohio had an opportunity to do that following the Sweet 16 season.....but loss at Oklahoma, at Memphis, at Belmont and at UMass derailed any shot. They were 14-2 in MAC and lost in MAC title game and were NOWHERE near at-large conversation even coming off the Sweet 16 of a year ago.

They had the right kind of schedule....just didn't get the results.

I'd love to see the league get to the point where they have a serious shot at an at-large berth....but it's going to take a special, special season for that to happen in today's CBB
The game at Belmont was on ESPN right? (Bracket Buster thing?)

I was there. It was embarrassing. Could JC have coached a worse game? He made Rick Byrd look like Greg Popovich.
Oof, don't remind me. I was there too and left at halftime.
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