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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: MAC Standings: The Race for the Top 4
Page: 2 of 5
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person
Obc2
2/20/2016 3:54 PM
CENTRAL falls to Western.
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Tyler
2/20/2016 4:03 PM
After today:

10-4 Akron
9-5 Ohio
9-5 Kent St
9-5 Ball St

8-6 Buffalo
7-7 NIU
7-7 CMU
7-7 Toledo
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The Optimist
2/21/2016 8:07 AM
This site has seedings based on how you pick the games the remainder of the season to play out...

http://www.playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac /

Played with it very briefly and came to one key realization... Hypothetically, if Ohio wins out including a win over Akron and we both finish 13-5 we would be the 2nd seed with Akron winning tiebreaker. However, if Ball State also finishes tied at 13-5, we jump Akron to become 1 seed.
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Danny's Knee
2/21/2016 9:51 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
This site has seedings based on how you pick the games the remainder of the season to play out...

http://www.playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac /

Played with it very briefly and came to one key realization... Hypothetically, if Ohio wins out including a win over Akron and we both finish 13-5 we would be the 2nd seed with Akron winning tiebreaker. However, if Ball State also finishes tied at 13-5, we jump Akron to become 1 seed.
BANG !! .. Oh BABY what a BIG TIME fun simulator !!
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cc-cat
2/21/2016 2:33 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
This site has seedings based on how you pick the games the remainder of the season to play out...

http://www.playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac /
Very cool site. I stand corrected on my earlier post re: BG - While a lot can happen, if the favorite wins out every game, the game against Buff is the difference between 2nd and 4th. Critical home game.
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Victory
2/21/2016 2:35 PM
It seems like Akron wins a lot of tiebreakers. They have a 90%+ chance of being the #1 seed but nowhere near that for winning the conference outright though their odds for that are still pretty good.
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cc-cat
2/23/2016 11:26 PM
As of right now - from what I can decipher:

Akron - #1 seed - win many tiebreakers - have home games remaining. Despite loss to Miami in good shape for #1 seed

Buffalo, Ohio, Kent, Ball all at 9-6

Tie breaker for multiple teams: wining percentage against those teams. Therefore:

Ohio - 2 seed -- 4-1 against the other three teams
Buffalo - 3 seed -- 3-1 against the other three teams
Kent - 4 seed -- 2-3 against the other three teams
Ball - 5 seed -- 0-4 against the other three teams - tough situation

Toledo and Central lurking at 8-7 -- we hold the head to head tiebreaker over Toledo, not Central.


Thanks Grover. Updated accordingly. Yes Buff game is huge. Gives us head to head tiebreaker against them. Kent in good shape to beat us head to head, but we take them in multi-team tie.
Last Edited: 2/23/2016 11:54:51 PM by cc-cat
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GroverBall
2/23/2016 11:37 PM
not quite cc. we beat the beefs and are 4-1 against ksu, balls and beefs. beefs are 3-1 against this group. saturday game vs beefs is big.
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ou1982
2/24/2016 7:09 AM
from the simulator, we win out we are the number one seed.
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Danny's Knee
2/27/2016 9:34 PM
according to the simulator .. a toledo loss this evening secures THE OHIO BOBCATS a bye and at least a 4 seed ..

BANG !! .. Oh BABY what an enjoyable season !! .. BOOK IT !!
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Pataskala
2/27/2016 10:32 PM
Danny's Knee wrote:expand_more
according to the simulator .. a toledo loss this evening secures THE OHIO BOBCATS a bye and at least a 4 seed ..

BANG !! .. Oh BABY what an enjoyable season !! .. BOOK IT !!
I don't think so. Akron is 11-5, Ohio is 10-6, and so is BSU. Kent, Buffalo and CMU are 9-7. If Ohio loses out we finish 10-8. If BSU loses to CMU but beats NIU they'll be 11-7. If CMU wins out (BSU, WMU) they'll be 11-7. Kent and Buffalo don't play one another next week, so they can both win out and be 11-7. If Akron beats us but loses to Kent they'll be 12-6. With Akron at 12-6 and four teams at 11-7, Ohio would be the #6 seed in the tourney. We'll probably have to win at least one next week to get a top 4 seed.
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Danny's Knee
2/27/2016 11:09 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
according to the simulator .. a toledo loss this evening secures THE OHIO BOBCATS a bye and at least a 4 seed ..

BANG !! .. Oh BABY what an enjoyable season !! .. BOOK IT !!
I don't think so. Akron is 11-5, Ohio is 10-6, and so is BSU. Kent, Buffalo and CMU are 9-7. If Ohio loses out we finish 10-8. If BSU loses to CMU but beats NIU they'll be 11-7. If CMU wins out (BSU, WMU) they'll be 11-7. Kent and Buffalo don't play one another next week, so they can both win out and be 11-7. If Akron beats us but loses to Kent they'll be 12-6. With Akron at 12-6 and four teams at 11-7, Ohio would be the #6 seed in the tourney. We'll probably have to win at least one next week to get a top 4 seed.
I think ball loses at northern .. BANG !! .. DEKALB !!
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Pataskala
2/28/2016 3:22 PM
At the end of this week there could be a 6-way tie for the top seed in the tourney. Here are the current standings with the opponents left for each team:

Akron 11-5 (Ohio, Kent)
Ohio 10-6 (Akron, Fiami)
BSU 10-6 (CMU, NIU)
Buffalo 9-7 (Fiami,BG)
Kent 9-7 (BG, Akron)
CMU 9-7 (BSU, WMU)

Suppose Buffalo, Kent and CMU all win out, Akron loses out, Ohio beats Akron but loses to Fiami, and BSU loses to CMU but beats NIU. All six would be 11-7. In that case, the head-to-head tiebreaker would look like this:

Ohio 6-3 (2-0 vs Buf & BSU, 1-1 vs Akron & Kent, 0-1 vs CMU)
CMU 4-3 (1-0 vs Ohio & Kent, 1-1 vs Akron & BSU, 0-1 vs Buffalo)
Akron 5-4 (2-0 vs Buf, 1-0 vs BSU, 1-1 vs Ohio & CMU, 0-2 vs Kent)
Buffalo 4-4 (2-0 vs Kent, 1-0 vs BSU & CMU, 0-2 vs Ohio & Akron)
Kent 4-4 (2-0 vs Akron, 1-0 vs BSU, 1-1 vs Ohio, 0-1 vs CMU, 0-2 vs Buf)
BSU 1-7 (1-1 vs CMU, 0-1 vs Buf & Kent, 0-2 vs Ohio & Akron)

The top four seeds would be Ohio #1; Buffalo #2 (wins 5-way tiebreaker); Kent #3 (wins 4-way tiebreaker); and Akron #4 (wins 3-way tiebreaker).

Now that I've brought this up it'll never happen.
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bornacatfan
2/28/2016 3:41 PM
Good because the path where 1 and 4 are Kron and us is my least favorite
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Alan Swank
2/28/2016 5:18 PM
What do we need to do to get a 2 or a 3 seed?
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oubobcatjohn
2/28/2016 6:02 PM
We win out we get a co-championship for the regular season title. The would be really something for this basketball team considering the ups and downs in early January. Huge basketball game at Akron and then rivalry game at Miami. Our two biggest rivals on the road. We given our self a shot. Akron isn't playing as well as they did a month ago. I think we have a decent chance to steal that game. Great opportunity to see how the Cats handle a big game. Perhaps a preview for the MAC tournament,
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Jeff McKinney
2/28/2016 7:16 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
What do we need to do to get a 2 or a 3 seed?
That's what we need to know.
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Andrew Ruck
2/28/2016 8:39 PM
If we win both I am pretty sure we are the #1 seed regardless.

I think if we win 1 of 2, it is nearly certain we get a top 4 seed.

CMU is a problem for us because they hold a tiebreaker over us. If BSU beats CMU at home but loses @ NIU, I think we would would most likely get the 2 seed (again, if we go 1-1 this week) even if Buffalo and/or Kent win out.

If we lose both, a top 4 seed still isn't completely out of the equation.
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Andrew Ruck
2/28/2016 8:45 PM
Wrong thread.
Last Edited: 2/28/2016 8:46:47 PM by Andrew Ruck
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bornacatfan
2/28/2016 9:54 PM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Wrong thread.
quite a yarn...
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RSBobcat
2/28/2016 10:11 PM
bornacatfan wrote:expand_more
Wrong thread.
quite a yarn...
Not quite sewn up yet...
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oldkatz
2/29/2016 10:15 AM
RSBobcat wrote:expand_more
Wrong thread.
quite a yarn...
Not quite sewn up yet...

Quit needling him.
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OUVan
2/29/2016 10:17 AM
http://www.playoffsimulator.com /

This was posted on the MAC board and is a pretty cool tool. It breaks down if more than 4 teams are tied however.
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Danny's Knee
2/29/2016 10:40 AM
OUVan wrote:expand_more
http://www.playoffsimulator.com /

This was posted on the MAC board and is a pretty cool tool. It breaks down if more than 4 teams are tied however.
welcome to the board OUVan !!
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OU_Country
2/29/2016 10:56 AM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
What do we need to do to get a 2 or a 3 seed?
That's what we need to know.

The way I'm seeing things via the posted simulator, win one of the next two, and the Bobcats seem to be a lock for the 2 or 3 seed, with one exception: Kent winning out.

Also, the six way tie scenario at 11-7 could get interesting. Too many tie-breakers for me to understand. The simulator would put OUr guys as the 6th seed in that case, which makes no sense to me because it would have UB at the #2. Having beaten them twice, they'd have to be behind Ohio if both teams were tied after this week, right?

Agree with Andrew that winning out should result in the #1 seed.
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