Some interesting numbers from Ken Pomeroy on our remaining opponents.

OPPONENTS OFFENSE

1) There are only four opponents on our schedule left that are above average (ranked in top 100) of offensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, we have played 3 teams so far that are top 100 (Tulsa, Florida St, St. Bonaventure).

2) We are terrible in forcing turnovers (#314) and the MAC in general is very good at not turning the ball over. WMU and BSU are the only 200+ ranked teams.

3) With Kent and Toledo as the exceptions, the MAC can not shoot from inside the arc. A bunch of MAC teams shoot the ball very well from behind the arc. Of the teams that shoot well from outside only Akron shoots a lot from there. They take the 14th highest percentage of shots from 3pt land. Central has taken more than 50% of their shots from 3. Since they aren't one of the better shooting teams from behind the arc this goes a long way to showing why they have played so poorly. The other is their defense is atrocious.

4) The MAC can not shoot free throws with UT, KSU, & MU as the exceptions. The good news is the bad shooting teams are really good at getting to the line while the good shooting teams generally aren't.

OPPONENTS DEFENSE

1) The MAC this year is a mediocre conference on defense. Only Akron and Eastern are good and only CMU and Miami (as well as us) are bad on defense. Everyone else has a defensive efficiency rating from between 148-177.

2) The really good news for us is that the MAC overall is terrible in defensing the 3 point shot. Only Akron is ranked in the top 120 and they are really good at #5 (25.2%). The league does do a good job defending the 2 however.

3) Jaaron should be happy to hear that we only face five teams in MAC play that are good at turning teams over (NIUx2, MUx2, EMU). Miami turns their opponents over 24% of the time which is really good. The problem is that if Miami doesn't cause a turnover they give up a basket.


These are just numbers but they do paint a picture. From looking at everything I think it's safe to say that Akron is the favorite. They are going to be tough to beat particularly when they get all their guys back. But there is no one else on our schedule that you look at and think that we'll have to play out of our heads to beat. If everyone stays healthy I think we'll be favored in every home game with the possible exception of Akron and we'll be the underdog in every road game.

And, the preseason conference favorite is at 335. Despite missing Fowler up until this weekend, that's bad.

EMU may have an RPI of 65 currently, but they are NOT the best team in the conference.

I think Pomeroy rankings are more accurate:

72. Akron
106. Kent State
141. Toledo
150. Eastern Michigan
151. Ohio
156. Western Michigan
163. Buffalo
167. Northern Illinois
175. Ball State
192. Central Michigan
204. Bowling Green
207. Miami

I think Kent is possibly a little high but that might be just my anti-Senderoff bias showing through.

We should win the next three which means 11-7 in conference. Even if we go 10-8 that should be enough to get a home game in round 1 which should get us there.

13 to go

I didn't get to see any, but it didn't sound like a stellar performance. I'm not sure that was a game to really judge much on. These games right before Christmas, and right after finals are usually kind of snooze fests. At least the guys got the win against a team, in theory, that they were supposed to beat.

And you have to give the J State D and team hustle some credit

I guess we'll see if 11-7 or 12-6 is possible in MAC Play. I like watching this group a lot, but there will have to be improvement in some areas for that to happen.

I'm not necessarily a doubter. I really like this team, and like watching it. I have concerns about being able to defend well enough to win on a consistent basis. I have concerns, developed in the last couple weeks, with getting enough out of the bench to grind it out during conference play. I have no concerns about scoring, and having fun watching this bunch though.

I'm just not sure they'll manage 11-7 or 12-6 to get to that 20 win number before Cleveland. I "predicted" 10-8 in conference play, and I think 8-4 in non-conf. They're ahead of my predictions by one game if they win on the 30th.

Maybe I'm just tempering my expectations after last year. Maybe I'm being "realistic". Either way, this is more fun that last season, and for now, I'm good with that.

Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick.

20 is better than 10. Considering Larry got fired after a 19 win season and TOS was on the hot-seat after 20 win seasons I don't see anyone claiming that 20 win seasons are the standard for success. Heck, we were disappointed with a 25 win season a couple of years ago. But 20 wins this year would be a really nice step in the right direction.